In China several data covering the month of December brought some relief. Annual growth of industrial production slowed compared to November but less than expected.
The contraction of retail sales was smaller than the previous month. The consensus had expected a far bigger decline. The jobless rate declined, which represents another positive surprise. Finally, 4th quarter GDP showed a stable GDP, whereas analysts had expected a decline. In the Eurozone, the ZEW expectations survey jumped in January. The final inflation numbers (y/y) were in line with the preliminary estimate. In Germany, the ZEW expectations survey also jumped, beating the consensus by a wide margin. In the UK, retail sales and consumer confidence disappointed. In the US, retail sales (m/m) contracted more in December than the previous month and also more than anticipated. Housing starts declined less than expected but building permits disappointed versus the consensus although declining far less than in November. Initial unemployment claims were also down. The NAHB housing market index improved slightly.
Latest indicators (Bloomberg)
The week ahead
This week sees the publication of several surveys covering the month of January: flash PMIs in several countries, consumer confidence (Eurozone, France, Germany), business confidence in France, the IFO survey in Germany. In the US the focus will be on 4th quarter GDP growth and the University of Michigan survey :
Coming indicators (Bloomberg)
