Eco Pulse

Japan: Flat growth in Q3, no worries going forward

10/06/2025
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Business climate: PMI

Favorable business climate. The Tankan survey reported an improvement in large manufacturing companies' sentiment (14, +1 point) in Q3, including in the motor vehicles sector (10, +2 points). The overall figure (all enterprises and all industries) remained stable (10). The Services PMI remained stable at a high level (53) in September, while the Manufacturing PMI (48.4, -1.3 pp) fell to a five-month low due to the first contraction in hiring (49.4, -2.5 pp) since November 2024 and a decline in output (47.3, -2.5 pp).

Household confidence

Household confidence improved in September, reaching its best annual result at 35.3 (+0.4 points). The increase was most pronounced in the propensity to purchase durable goods (28.8, +0.8 points).

Labour market: Wage growth

The unemployment rate remained low, despite a peak in 2025, at 2.6% (+0.3pp) in August. Nominal wage growth reached a 2025 high of +3.4% y/y (+0.3pp) in July, thanks to bonuses and special payments (+6.3% y/y, +1.9pp). The underlying measure of scheduled contractual earnings is stable at +2.0% y/y. The real wage index improved (-0.2% y/y, +0.6pp) but remained negative for the seventh consecutive month.

Inflation and policy rate

Towards monetary tightening. In August, energy (-3.6% m/m) pulled total and core inflation (excluding fresh food) down, as both reached +2.7% y/y (-0.4pp). The “new core” index, which excludes energy, fell slightly less (-0.1pp to +3.3% y/y). The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its policy rate unchanged at +0.5% in September. However, two votes (out of nine) were in favour of a rate hike (and a programme to sell ETFs held by the central bank was announced), foreshadowing a rise in the policy rate in Q4, possibly as early as the 29-30 October meeting.

Japan's GDP growth q/q: actual, carry-over, forecasts

After a strong first half, growth is expected to weaken in the second. GDP growth surprised on the upside in Q2 (+0.5% q/q), supported by household consumption and non-residential investment. Flat growth is expected for Q3, following the contraction in manufacturing output and retail sales in both July (-1.0% m/m and -1.6% m/m respectively) and August (-0.9% and -1.1%).

Completed on October 3, 2025.

THE ECONOMISTS WHO PARTICIPATED IN THIS ARTICLE

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