GDP growth q/q: actual, carry-over and forecastsBacklash against growth in Q2? After a Q1 2025 boosted by exports in anticipation of the rise in US tariffs, a fall back is expected in Q2. According to our nowcast, which does not incorporate the fallback but tracks the economy's trend growth rate, the latter remains solid (+0.3% q/q). It should be underpinned by a final interest rate cut in September and by increased defence spending for the region's rearmament. In May, growth in outstanding loans to businesses slowed, while growth in loans to households continued to accelerate. This was mainly due to the stabilisation of rates on new business investment loans, while rates on loans to households fell again.
