Eco Pulse

Spain: Economic momentum remains strong

07/08/2025
PDF
Business climate: Economic Sentiment Survey

Business climate: favourable, but slightly weaker. In June, the economic sentiment index remained above its long-term average and that of the Eurozone, but weakened for the second consecutive month (102; -1.4 points m/m). The indicator for industry fell by 1.2 points due to a deterioration in production and order books. Industrial companies' expectations for production in the coming months reached their lowest level since February 2021, reflecting a deterioration in the outlook.

Households: Retail trade
(% change m/m, volume)

Household consumption remains buoyant. Retail sales rose by 0.2% m/m in volume terms in May, reaching their highest level for this month since 2022. New vehicle registrations remain buoyant (+5.5% y/y in June), and the Ipsos household confidence index remains high by historical standards (50; -0.2 points m/m).

Labour market: Unemployment rate

The labour market is breaking new records. The number of people registered with social security reached a historic high in June (21.9 million; +2.2% y/y). At the same time, the number of unemployed people fell to 2.4 million (the lowest since 2008), pushing the unemployment rate down (10.8%; -0.1 pp). Negotiated wages continued to rise (+3.4% y/y in May, the same level as in April).

Inflation (% change y/y)

Inflation rebounds slightly, but the outlook remains favourable. Harmonised inflation rose back above 2% in June (+2.2% y/y; +0.2 pp m/m), while core inflation slowed (+2.1%; -0.1 pp). This change was mainly due to a base effect on fuel prices and to higher food prices. Risks remain on the downside, as producer prices fell sharply between March and May (-3.9% cumulatively).

GDP growth q/q: actual, carry-over, forecasts

GDP growth remains strong. Growth is expected to remain high throughout the year, particularly in Q2 (+0.5% q/q). On average, real GDP will grow by 2.5% in 2025. It will continue to benefit from catch-up effects (notably, higher employment) and outperform eurozone GDP growth (1.2%).

Article completed on 2 July 2025

THE ECONOMISTS WHO PARTICIPATED IN THIS ARTICLE
Team : Advanced Economies

Other articles from the same publication

Global
Ecopulse | July 2025

Ecopulse | July 2025

Our Q2 2025 nowcasts highlight the resilience of the Eurozone and, to a lesser extent, France. Weaker exports (after their surge in Q1 in anticipation of the US trade tariffs) penalises our forecast in Q2 [...]

Read the article
Eurozone
Eurozone: Indicators stable, inflation under control

Eurozone: Indicators stable, inflation under control

The composite PMI index was stable at 50.2 in June, remaining above the expansion threshold in the first half of the year. The upturn in the manufacturing index slowed but continued (+0.1 pt to 49.5) [...]

Read the article
Eurozone
Credit in the Eurozone: Slowdown in corporate lending, acceleration in household lending

Credit in the Eurozone: Slowdown in corporate lending, acceleration in household lending

The decline in borrowing rates in the Eurozone resumed, except for investment loans. New investment loan rates (IRF > 5 years) to non-financial corporations in the eurozone remained stable in May 2025, at 3.67%, for the third consecutive month [...]

Read the article
Germany
Germany: economic recovery continues

Germany: economic recovery continues

The IFO business climate continues to improve (+0.9 points in June compared to the previous month, to 88.4), supported by favourable economic prospects [...]

Read the article
France
France: Decline in private sector confidence

France: Decline in private sector confidence

Business climate: improvement confirmed in construction. The business climate continues to be quite low, with 96 in June and in May (97 in March-April) [...]

Read the article
Italy
Italy: Business climate on the rise, household confidence down

Italy: Business climate on the rise, household confidence down

Business climate: the improvement continues. The economic sentiment index has been improving for two months, reaching 98.6 in June (+0.2 points m/m) [...]

Read the article
United Kingdom
United Kingdom: Surveys show improvement, but employment stalls

United Kingdom: Surveys show improvement, but employment stalls

Business sentiment improves in all sectors: The composite PMI index rises in June (+1.7 points, to 52), driven by both services (+1.9 points, to 52.8) and industry (+1.3 points, to 47.7) [...]

Read the article
United States
United States: Improvement in the Business Climate

United States: Improvement in the Business Climate

Improvement in the ISM. The manufacturing ISM improved modestly (49.0, +0.5 pp) in June, with a notable jump in output (50.3, +4.9 pp), which entered expansion territory for the first time since February [...]

Read the article
Japan
Japan: Improvement in the Business Climate

Japan: Improvement in the Business Climate

Favourable developments for the business climate. The manufacturing PMI stood at 50.1 in June (+0.7 pp, the first expansion posted since May 2024) thanks to growth in output (51.2, +2.5 pp). The services sector also improved (51.7, +0.7 pp) [...]

Read the article
China
China: Moderate slowdown in exports and fiscal support

China: Moderate slowdown in exports and fiscal support

Trade truce. The official PMI for the manufacturing sector has been in contraction territory since April, mainly due to the US-China trade war and worsening export prospects. However, the index rose slightly from 49 to 49.5 in May and 49 [...]

Read the article