GDP growth reached 0.5% q/q in the third quarter, well above the figures recorded for nearly three years. This outperformance came despite the period of political uncertainty that began in June 2024 and sluggish household consumption.
These factors are certainly weighing on demand. However, the proportion of companies whose production is limited by a lack of demand, while it has increased, is not high from a historical perspective: it was twice as high in 2013, when GDP growth was similar to that of 2025. And today, there are roughly as many businesses subject to demand constraints as there are to supply constraints. The latter indicate that they cannot produce more due to a shortage of labour or material and equipment.
However, when companies subject to supply constraints are able to open new production lines, production can rebound rather quickly. This is what is happening today in the aeronautics industry. This sector has been unable to return to the production levels achieved in 2019, despite a sizeable order book. And the rebound stalled between the end of 2023 and June 2025.
The rebound has resumed: production in June-September 2025 was nearly 16% higher on average than in the previous 18 months. This phenomenon has already contributed nearly half of GDP growth in the second and third quarters of 2025.
At the same time, France is also benefiting from resilience in business creation and the labour market. Here again, there is a clear difference compared to a period when GDP growth was similar to the 2025 level, namely 2012-15. At that time, business creation had declined, but since early 2025, it has increased. At that time, the unemployment rate rose by 2 percentage points, whereas today the increase is marginal, despite the recent slowdown in employment.
Finally, interest rates have fallen in the private sector. Bank lending rates have benefited from the ECB's key interest rate cut. The swap rate, at which banks finance themselves, is more closely correlated with the ECB's key interest rate than with the French sovereign rate. This fall in interest rates has led to a rebound in investment: +1.2% over the last four quarters for non-financial companies.
Faced with a deterioration in demand, which should be put into perspective but is nonetheless significant, the French economy is in parallel experiencing more positive developments. These developments enables growth to remain resilient and even accelerate when they are most pronounced.
