Energy and mineral commodities are central to the low carbon transition process. Latin America, which boasts abundant amounts of minerals and key metals for the transition, and GCC[1] countries, which are dependent on revenue from hydrocarbons, are seemingly, on the face of it, taking contrasting paths on the transition journey. However, the macroeconomic consequences cannot easily be determined currently. Gulf countries have some advantages in the oil market, but the pace of the transition could affect revenues more quickly than expected. In Latin America, while the size of critical minerals reserves is brightening the outlook, various national strategies and numerous constraints could curb the scale
Since the adoption of the European Green Deal on 11 December 2019, European climate strategy has stepped up. Far from paralysing its climate action, the health crisis was the backdrop for the adoption of NextGenerationEU. This recovery plan has mobilised considerable resources to meet the European Union’s needs in terms of climate and digital transition, healthcare and education. While its implementation is only halfway through, the first positive effects can already be observed. Other mechanisms (including REPowerEU, the carbon border adjustment mechanism and the Critical Raw Materials Act) have been added to this plan to respond to the new challenges that have arisen since the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine (supply security, energy dependence)
For any country, carbon footprint is measured not only by what it produces, but also by what it imports. Of the 9.2 tons of greenhouse gases (GHG) emitted annually by each French person, more than half (5.1 tons) are attributable to goods and services purchased abroad.
Canada has experienced sluggish economic growth in 2023, owing to rising prices and higher credit costs, which had a direct impact on the investment and consumption channels, despite the benefits of the country’s growing population. Furthermore, one cannot expect a significant improvement over the short run. Canadian households are amongst the most indebted in the world. Admittedly, their level of net wealth contributes to offset this fact, but it still implies an increased vulnerability against the backdrop of monetary tightening and a deteriorating labour market
Less active on the environmental front, European policy to combat climate change continues to score points in terms of decarbonization.
Whereas in 2022, France imported electricity, it became a net exporter again in 2023. This result was driven by a drop in consumption of almost 6% from the autumn of 2022, before the partial rebound in nuclear power and the rise in renewable power allowed production to increase in 2023. Additional efforts will have to be made to meet the targets set for 2050, but what was made in 2023 is a necessary starting point.
Faced with the urgency of climate change, many countries have begun their ecological transition, with the war in Ukraine only accelerating the movement. After soaring in 2022, investment in “clean” energies is set to reach a new record in 2023: around USD 1,800 billion worldwide, or 1.7 points of GDP, according to estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Although the search for new fossil fuels has not yet come to a halt, it is now mobilizing less capital (around USD 1,200 billion).
Since its publication last May by France Stratégie, the "Pisani-Mahfouz" report on the cost of ecological transition in France has been the subject of numerous, sometimes imprecise comments. For example, the main quoted figure of EUR 66 billion does not refer to the investment required for decarbonization, but to a net additional financing requirement. Explanation.