Fireside chat between Jean Lemierre (Chairman of the Board of Directors of BNP Paribas) & Isabelle Mateos y Lago (Group Chief Economist).
The context surrounding the December 9-10 FOMC meeting (BNP Paribas scenario: -25bp), which marks the final meeting of 2025, serves as a prelude to the challenges that the Federal Reserve will face in 2026. The outlook for the dual mandate calls for differing responses, and uncertainty prevails, fuelled by divisions among FOMC members that stand in contrast to the institution's pro-consensus stance. In the coming year, a significant test awaits US monetary policy and its autonomy, particularly with the succession of Chair Jerome Powell. However, the potential for an abrupt shift in US monetary policy should not be overstated. The Fed's decisions are expected to continue to be driven by economic fundamentals
The latest economic news.
The latest economic news
Growth in emerging economies remained solid in 2025, driven by exports and supportive financial conditions. Global trade was stimulated by export front loading ahead of US tariff increases, as well as by the reconfiguration of trade flows and the boom in the tech sector. In 2026, growth in emerging economies is expected to remain resilient but become more moderate. Supportive factors are likely to fade and global trade is expected to slow down. Fiscal and monetary policies will continue to support domestic demand but will be more constrained than in 2025. Monetary easing will be more measured, and fiscal room for manoeuvre will be reduced by the need to curb the increase in public debt ratios.
September's US employment figures reported the highest payroll growth since April (+119k). However, this fairly positive reading could prove short-lived due to the impact of the government shutdown. For the Fed, these developments add to the uncertainty surrounding its December meeting. We are still expecting a 25bp rate cut, which is now a close call.
Growth in emerging economies has remained solid since the beginning of the year, thanks in particular to buoyant exports and easing financial conditions. Up until the summer, the front-loading of purchases in anticipation of tariff increases in the United States stimulated trade. In addition, global trade flows have been reorganised. In 2026, fiscal and monetary policies will continue to support growth, but will be more constrained. Monetary easing will be less pronounced than in 2025, if only because of the uneven pace of disinflation across countries. Fiscal policy will be constrained by the need to curb the growth of public debt ratios
After a solid start to the year, Chinese economic growth has gradually slowed. Thanks to a rapid reorientation, exports have weathered the US tariff shock well. They are the main driver of economic activity, while domestic demand remains stubbornly fragile. The authorities have launched an “anti-involution” campaign, but adjusting demand policy in order to boost domestic investment and consumption, at a time when exports may begin to run out of steam, is also becoming urgent. Despite the deterioration in public finances in recent years, the central government and local governments still have some room for manoeuvre to act.
India's economic growth surprised on the upside between April and June 2025 (+7.8% y/y). However, activity is less dynamic than it appears, and the downside risks to growth are high. Household consumption remains sluggish. To support domestic demand and offset the impact of the rise in US tariffs on activity, the government has announced a reduction in VAT rates, even though its fiscal room for manoeuvre is limited. The central bank is likely to remain cautious in its monetary easing, as downward pressure on the rupee remains strong. In the medium term, the growth outlook could deteriorate if the United States maintains tariffs on Indian exports that are much higher than those on products from other Asian countries.
Indonesia is less exposed to the consequences of the US tariff increases than other ASEAN countries, but risks are tilted to the downside. Companies have begun to suspend their investments. Against this backdrop, the authorities have stepped up measures to support the economy. The central bank has cut its key interest rates more than in other Asian countries, and the new Finance Minister has announced an increase in social spending. Public debt remains under control, but it is financed mainly on bond markets, particularly by foreign investors who are concerned about fiscal slippage under the Prabowo administration. However, although this government is less conservative than the previous one and the situation calls for greater vigilance, the risks to debt sustainability are contained.
Turkish economic growth is slowing down. Excluding changes in inventories, final demand contracted in Q2 2025, after slowing significantly in Q1. In doing so, it rebalanced with less consumption and more investment. The contribution of foreign trade has become negative, but for the time being, the current account deficit remains contained thanks to lower energy bills and tourism revenues. Persistent inflation remains the main obstacle to growth, not only because of its detrimental effects on purchasing power and external competitiveness (through the appreciation of the real exchange rate), but also because of the constraints it imposes on monetary policy in a context of temporary but recurring financial instability
Poland is expected to join the group of the world's 20 largest economies by 2025. Its GDP in nominal terms is expected to exceed USD 1 trillion this year. The country could also see its GDP per capita (in volume and PPP terms) surpass that of Japan, according to IMF forecasts. The Polish economy continues to outperform in the region. In 2025 and 2026, investment and consumption will be the key drivers of growth. Inflation has returned to the official target range since July, thus providing greater flexibility for monetary policy. On the other hand, fiscal room for manoeuvre is more limited, even if consolidation will be gradual.
Electoral uncertainty weighed heavily on Romania's economic activity last year. In 2025 and 2026, real GDP growth is expected to improve only slightly. Inflation has accelerated over the past two months and will continue to rise in the short term, while it is ticking lower in all Central European countries. However, the monetary authorities are not expected to change gear and will likely maintain a status quo in the short term. As for fiscal policy, the scope for supporting the economy is significantly reduced due to significant consolidation measures.
As a result of monetary tightening, Brazil's economic growth has been losing momentum over the last two quarters. Nevertheless, the slowdown in domestic demand is facilitating the disinflationary process, which is further bolstered by decreasing food and oil prices, along with the appreciation of the real. Despite highly restrictive monetary conditions, labour and credit markets continue to exhibit areas of resilience within the economy. The impact of trade tensions with the United States are currently limited, as lost exports find alternative destinations. Diplomatic efforts, combined with Brazil's geostrategic position, point to a possible easing of tensions ahead
Mexican economic growth held up well in the first half of 2025. The slowdown is expected to be more pronounced in the coming quarters: export momentum is likely to diminish due to the implementation of US tariffs, while domestic demand is expected to remain sluggish. Inflation is expected to decelerate moderately, and the cycle of monetary policy easing is likely to continue in 2026. Public finances represent a structural weakness in the Mexican economy. Consistent support for the oil company Pemex, fiscal spending rigidity and overly optimistic projections used by the government when setting its annual budget have resulted in the failure of the consolidation policies proposed by successive administrations. Consequently, the fiscal deficit has been widening since 2019
Since the spring, the macroeconomic and financial situation has deteriorated significantly. The successful stabilisation of 2024 was ultimately short-lived. The economy is expected to have formally entered recession in the third quarter. The current account is once again in deficit despite very restrictive fiscal policy, and despite massive support from the IMF since April, official foreign exchange reserves remain low compared with upcoming external debt repayments in 2026. Since September, the government has benefited from the support of the US Treasury, and President Milei's party emerged victorious from the mid-term elections, which has reassured investors
In Colombia, economic growth is rebounding after two years of poor performance, but several sectors are still lagging behind and investment is still weak. Attention is now turning to the 2026 parliamentary and presidential elections, which could lead to major shifts in economic and fiscal policy. The next administration will inherit a record-high fiscal deficit and a rapidly rising public debt. With the fiscal rule suspended for three years, it will need to act quickly to lay the foundations for fiscal consolidation before investor confidence is eroded further.
The gradual stabilisation of the Egyptian economy is ongoing, driven by the restoration of foreign currency liquidity, even though the pace of reforms has been uneven. The rebound in activity, bolstered by household consumption, has exceeded expectations, despite a restrictive fiscal and monetary environment. The decrease in inflation appears to be sustained and should allow for continued monetary easing in the coming quarters. The outlook for foreign currency liquidity is positive, thanks in particular to substantial financing from bilateral and multilateral creditors. The public finance landscape is more complex: consolidation efforts are genuine, despite the slow pace of some reforms, yet the interest burden continues to be a significant source of vulnerability
The Moroccan economy continues to gain momentum. Largely unaffected by the tightening of US tariff policy, it has recorded solid GDP growth since the beginning of the year. Domestic demand is strong, driven by investment. Despite headwinds in the automotive sector, macroeconomic risks are contained, and the economic outlook is positive. However, current social pressures could have a negative impact on public finances, which have remained under control until now. Improved financing conditions should enable Morocco to cope with any deterioration.
Following PwC in June, the ECB presented its own assessment of the costs of a digital euro for banks in the Eurozone. Thanks to extensive cost synergies, their initial investment over the first four years, estimated at EUR 18 billion by PwC, would, according to the ECB, be within a more modest range (between EUR 4 and 5.77 billion). But this amount, which has attracted a lot of attention, is not the only issue at stake, as the recurring cost of replenishing banks’ reserves with the Eurosystem could, in the long term, weigh more heavily on financing conditions.
Responding to tangible signs of tension in the money markets, the Fed announced the end of its QT effective on December 1. In line with its operational framework, the Fed will maintain the size of its balance sheet for some time. Subsequently, to ensure its supply of reserves remains at a sufficiently “ample” level, it will increase it again. However, the Fed should be more cautious.
Against all odds, Argentine President Javier Milei’s party emerged victorious in the 26 October midterm elections, despite suffering an electoral setback less than two months earlier. What was behind this turnaround, given that the economic and social situation has deteriorated significantly since the spring? Will the easing of tensions on the peso and the risk premium be enough to avoid a recession? Will US financial support be enough to avert any risk of default on foreign debt?
