Economic growth remains solid, but it is expected to slow down in 2025. Due to its very open economy, Malaysia is more vulnerable to the slowdown in China than India or Indonesia. In addition, tensions between the United States and China could make it more complicated to implement its New Industrial Master Plan, a key pillar in the country’s efforts to revitalise growth. The authorities have limited room for manoeuvre in order to support the economy. The Central Bank of Malaysia is expected to leave its key interest rates unchanged over the next six months, unlike other central banks in Asia. Inflation risks are on the upside due to the abolition of energy subsidies and wage increases. In addition, fiscal consolidation, which began two years ago, is hurting investment spending.
Brazil's macro-financial portrait is one of striking contrasts: on the one hand, unemployment is at an all-time low, external accounts exhibit a notable resilience, and economic growth continues to outperform expectations as it draws on multiple levers ; On the other hand, the currency has continued to weaken, residents have increased their holdings abroad, and risk premiums have widened – as defiant markets call for additional measures to curb public spending. The Central Bank – bucking the global trend – has initiated a phase of monetary tightening in response to rising inflation. The latter has witnessed upward pressures on both the supply and demand side in recent months
In Chile, the recovery in economic activity seen in 2024 is expected to continue in 2025. Commodity exports will remain strong, while private consumption will benefit from slowing inflation and a gradually improving labour market. Against a political backdrop marked by ongoing tensions, and an opposition coalition strengthened by the results of recent local elections, the government is trying to press ahead with its flagship reforms, relating to the energy sector in particular, before the end of its term, which will be in late 2025. Against this backdrop, public finances are still being gradually consolidated, at a slower pace than initially anticipated.
In Central Europe, economic activity slowed in Q3 2024. Over the first three quarters, the Polish economy performed better than its neighbours. In the region, inflation has picked up again and a return to the inflation target is not expected until 2026. With the exception of the Czech Republic, all Central European countries are under excessive deficit procedure. Moreover, several countries have tapped international capital markets. This is accompanied by a higher currency risk, but generally, Central European countries have adopted a cautious management of foreign currency debt. Meanwhile, capital flows rebounded in Q3. The region remains an attractive destination for short-and medium-term capital flows.
In 2024, Hungary is expected to be among the region’s worst performing economies, entering a technical recession in Q3. Real GDP growth is one of the government’s priorities, with an official target of 3% to 6% next year. The budget for 2025 recently submitted to Parliament aims at both revitalising the economy and consolidating public accounts. However, medium-term potential growth, estimated at 3% by the IMF, has been revised upwards compared to its 2019 estimate. In particular, it is buoyed by favourable prospects for FDI, particularly from China, which would support investment.
Since July, the three main rating agencies have upgraded the Turkish government's medium-term and long-term debt ratings. Macroeconomic fundamentals have really improved over the past twelve months, despite the tightening of monetary policy and the resulting slowdown in growth due to positive real interest rates for households and businesses. The slippage in the core budget deficit is still under control and the debt ratio is at an all-time low. The current account deficit has fallen sharply and the recovery in portfolio investment has helped with rebuilding official foreign exchange reserves. Finally, the de-dollarisation of bank deposits has continued and bank credit risks are generally under control
Although tensions in the Middle East and the geopolitical risk have risen sharply since October 2023, there have been contrasting developments in the maritime trade and energy markets. While the cost of some freight categories has risen, oil prices have fallen, mainly due to abundant supply. An escalation of the conflict is still a possibility and would drive energy prices higher. In an already tense market, the price of LNG on the European market is particularly sensitive to the geopolitical context. It is against this backdrop of geopolitical tension and depressed oil markets that the Gulf countries are seeing their financing requirements increase. Furthermore, as part of their diversification policy, they need a peaceful regional environment, particularly in the Red Sea.
In 2024, Angola’s economic growth struggles to bounce back significantly. The non-oil economy is facing multiple headwinds, while the hydrocarbon sector is seeing a moderate return to growth. Despite large current account surpluses, pressure on external accounts has remained strong since resumption, in 2023, of the servicing of the external debt owed to China. The kwanza continues to depreciate against the dollar, which is severely deteriorating the State’s solvency. The noose tightens on the government. It is facing ever-higher external debt repayments at a time when the risk of depletion of Chinese capital inflows is higher.
The economy continues to hold up. A new period of drought will affect growth in 2024, but non-agricultural activity remains sustained. Investment is recovering sharply and the rapid drop in inflation is buoying household consumption. The country's macroeconomic stability is not under threat. Another cause for satisfaction is the surge in FDI project announcements. Ideally located and providing undeniable advantages against a backdrop of geoeconomic fragmentation, Morocco seems to be taking advantage of the reconfiguration of global value chains. The impact could be considerable. Nevertheless, more will probably be needed to contain rising unemployment.
Much has happened since Q4 Outlooks published in September cheeringly predicted, as a matter of consensus, that the global economy was heading for a soft landing after the sharpest inflation surge and most abrupt monetary tightening in decades. On the economic front, more data have been released, helpfully adding pixels to the growth, labour market and inflation pictures. On the politics and policy fronts, China unveiled a large stimulus package, the US voted in a new President and Congress, the UK released a radical 2025 budget, and France and Germany limped into new governing arrangements.
GDP growth, inflation, exchange and interest rates.
In this special edition of Economic Research devoted to interest rate cuts, we introduce you to Isabelle Mateos y Lago, who succeeds William De Vijlder as Chief Economist of the BNP Paribas Group and Director of the Economic Research department. The Fed and the ECB are cutting rates. How much of a good sign is this? This is the subject we then tackle with Hélène Baudchon, before discussing the effects of the rate cuts on European banks with Laurent Quignon. Finally, we end with Christine Peltier analysing the effects of the Chinese slowdown on emerging countries.
Meet Isabelle Mateos y Lago who succeeds William De Milder as Chief Economist of the BNP Paribas Group and Director of the Economic Research department.
The ECB made its first rate cut at the beginning of the summer, followed by the Fed, which lowered rates by 50 basis points. After three cuts of 25 basis points by the ECB,Hélène Baudchon explores. Is this a good sign or a bad one?
After a long, unfavourable period of low rates lasting almost six years, European banks have seen their interest margins and profitability improve overall with the rise in ECB rates in 2022 and 2023. As we now enter a period of falling rates, Laurent Quignon talks to us about their effects on the interest margins of European banks.
Last week’s news made for grim reading for many in Europe. First came the choice by our American friends to bring back to the White House a man who said just weeks ago that the EU would have to “pay a big price” if he won. Then the German governing coalition collapsed. Following factory closure announcements by VW in Germany a week before, the two largest German banks reported massive increases in their provisions for bad loans. Meanwhile, in France, lay-offs were announced by two high profile French companies in the automotive industry but also in retail a sector hitherto thought to be fine
The second-last FOMC Meeting of 2024 has resulted in a 25bps cut in the Fed Funds Target Range, to +4.5% - +4.75%. The steps ahead promise to prove trickier for the Fed, as the landing is still pending, and in view of Trump’s win. Indeed, the President-elect’s hostility towards Powell is common knowledge, while many of his policy plans are associated with an increased inflation-risk.
The presidential election on 5 November is associated with underlying but potentially decisive economic issues.Political aspects: The election pits Vice President Kamala Harris (Democrat) against former President Donald Trump (Republican). The winner will take office on 20 January 2025. The election looks set to be particularly closely contested, despite the momentum in Donald Trump's favour at the end of the campaign. At the same time, voters will be deciding on the composition of the next Congress, which will significantly affect the new administration's room for manoeuvre.Economic context: The vote comes against a backdrop of an apparently stronger economy. This is illustrated by solid macroeconomic performances, despite recent shocks, which are seemingly auguring a soft landing
GDP growth, inflation, interest and exchange rates.
The sun was shining last week in Washington, DC during the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but the imminent US elections cast a shadow over the meetings of the Finance Ministers, Central Bank Governors, and private sector economists and finance professionals from all around the world who gathered in town. The better-than-expected state of the global economy was obscured, and all other conversations relegated to second or third billing, including the IMF’s usual warnings about various dangers (excessive debt, insufficient growth, protectionism), the outlook for Europe (improving), for China (as well), for other EM (generally good) and digital finance (further gaining status).
In the main emerging economies, the pace of disinflation is slowing and the cycle of monetary easing began more than a year ago. Egypt is an exception to this trend, due to a severe balance-of-payments crisis that affected its economy until early 2024. Inflation only began to moderate in Q2 2024, and the Central Bank of Egypt decided to leave its key rates unchanged at its Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 17 October 2024.
Discussions on the 2025 draft finance law (PLF) have just begun in the French National Assembly. The backdrop for this PLF must be outlined. France is setting out to consolidate its budget, which is a major yet necessary task. However, things are hanging in the balance due to power struggles in the National Assembly. Over the past few years, a high fiscal deficit has been run up, with the 2024 fiscal deficit and interest burden (which is expected to increase by nearly 1 point of GDP by 2027) leaving the French government with no choice but to take action. In order to stabilise its public debt ratio, France will have to bring its fiscal deficit below 3% of GDP and therefore reduce it each year for at least five years
