The UK economy avoided recession in H2 2022 thanks to corporate investment and public and private consumption. Inflation figures in February surprised on the upside and remained at an exceptionally high level, which should continue to erode household purchasing power. As a result, the recession may only have been postponed. We now expect GDP to contract by -0.3% QoQ in Q1, then by -0.2% in Q2 2023. Faced with this situation, the Bank of England (BoE) is not expected to raise its key rate beyond a final hike of 25 basis points in March. This, plus accelerating disinflation, would allow a rebound in growth from H2 onwards.
Recent data in the US show a resilient economy despite the significant and fast tightening of monetary policy. In the Eurozone, the services sector is a source of resilience. Frustratingly for central banks, inflation has also been resilient. This would call for a strong message of further monetary tightening, were it not that uncertainty about the outlook is high. More than ever, central banks need a robust strategy which takes into account a range of possible outcomes. As a consequence, the message from the FOMC has taken a dovish twist. Reading between the lines, the ECB’s message is also softening, as witnessed by the strong emphasis on data-dependency and the role of financial conditions.
The Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey sheds light on how changes in monetary policy influence banks’ credit standards and expected loan demand. Based on the historical relationships, the latest survey points towards a high likelihood of average negative growth of the volume of company and household investments over the next several quarters. Moreover, recent research shows that since 2009, the maximum impact of monetary policy on inflation may be reached more quickly. Based on the relationship between credit standards, expected credit demand and investments by companies and households, as well as on the possibility that transmission lags have shortened, decisions by the Federal Reserve will more than ever be data-dependent.
Outlook for GDP growth, inflation, interest rates and exchange rates.
Monetary policy influences the economy with long and variable lags. They should be considered when assessing the effects of past rate hikes on inflation and its drivers. Bank lending surveys may act as a leading indicator. Historically, tighter credit standards and weak expected credit demand were followed by slower growth of company investments and households’ housing investments. However, the relationship between credit demand and supply factors and household consumption is very weak. Considering the current relatively tight credit standards and weak expected credit demand, one should expect a negative impact on company investment and housing investments by households over the next several quarters.
GDP Growth, inflation, interest and exchange rates
As we enter 2023, the economies of the major OECD countries continue to show signs of resilience.
Outlook for GDP growth, inflation, interest rates and exchange rates
The latest economic indicators updated on February 13 2023 and the coming calendar
In the US, financial conditions have eased in recent months and weighed on the effectiveness of the Fed’s policy tightening. Jerome Powell recently gave the impression of not being too concerned, so markets rallied, and financial conditions eased further despite the hawkish message from the FOMC. In the Eurozone, another rate hike by the ECB and the commitment to raise rates again in March caused a huge drop in bond yields because markets expect we’re getting closer to the terminal rate. It reflects a concern of not being invested in the right asset class when the guidance of central banks will change: based on past experience, one would expect that bond and equity markets would rally when central banks signal that the tightening cycle is (almost) over
The latest economic indicators updated on February 6 2023 and the coming calendar
In June 2022, the US Federal Reserve kick-started a programme to reduce the size of its balance sheet (QT2). However, banking regulations could hinder its ambitions. The first quantitative tightening (QT1) programme, which was launched by the Fed in October 2017, had already been curtailed early due to the liquidity requirements imposed on banks. Balance sheet constraints could in turn bring QT2 to an early end. The tightened leverage standard is already reducing the ability of banks to act as intermediaries in the secondary markets for US Treasury securities while federal government financing needs continue to grow.
On 1 January 2023, Croatia became the eurozone’s twentieth member. By reducing foreign exchange risk, euro adoption significantly improves the country’s macroeconomic solidity.
The drop in gas prices, the decline in headline inflation and the improvement of survey data in December have created a feeling that for the Eurozone 2023 might be better than expected hitherto. The survey data bode well for the growth momentum at the turn of the year, which could create a favourable carry-over effect for GDP this year and some hope that lower inflation will mean fewer ECB rate hikes. However, caution is warranted. Inflation remains far too high and core inflation has moved higher in December. Moreover, survey data provide little or no information on the pace of growth beyond the first quarter of this year.
2022 was a year of profound transformation, of shifting geopolitical and economic paradigms. Looking ahead, 2023 should see a change of direction in key economic variables. Headline inflation should decline significantly, central bank rates should reach their cyclical peak and the US and the euro area should spend part of the year in recession. 2023 can be considered as a year of transition, paving the way for more disinflation, gradual rate cuts and a soft recovery in 2024.
During the press conference following the latest governing council meeting, Christine Lagarde insisted repeatedly that moving to a 50 bp rate hike versus 75 bp previously did not represent a pivot, adding that rates still have to rise significantly and at a steady pace. Consequently, the likelihood of a terminal rate higher than 3.00% has increased, which explains the jump in bond yields. The large upward revision of the inflation projections is probably another factor behind the hawkish message. Forecasting inflation several years into the future is a difficult task, even more so in the current environment
The depreciation of the yuan since the beginning of the year and portfolio investment outflows have been largely due to diverging trends in Chinese and US interest rates. They also reflect a loss of investor confidence and the deterioration in China’s economic growth outlook. Meanwhile, China’s external financial position is still very strong.
An update of the GDP Growth and inflation data, interest and exchange rates
For several years, Romania has been running a structural current account deficit. This year, the deficit is expected to worsen and could come close to 10% of GDP after -7.3% in 2021. The deficit had already reached EUR 20.2 billion over the first nine months of the year, well above the figure seen for 2021 as a whole. Romania's deficit is the largest amongst Central European countries. The main reason stems from the deterioration in the energy trade balance, which according to the latest figures reached EUR -4.5 billion for the January-July period. Imports of food and industrial goods have also contributed, but to a lesser degree compared to energy. By contrast, imports of consumer durables have remained soft. Exports were still relatively dynamic (up by a year-on-year rate of 26
The US consumer price data for October have reinforced the view that disinflation -the narrowing of the gap between observed inflation and the central bank’s inflation target- has started. That conclusion seems clear as far as headline inflation is concerned -it has peaked in June- but we need confirmation that the decline in core inflation from the September peak is not a one-off. Core goods inflation has been moving down but core services inflation remains stubbornly high on the back of transportation services and shelter. What matters now for the economy and financial markets is the speed of disinflation because this will influence Fed policy, the level of the terminal rate and how long the federal funds rate will stay there
At which level will the Federal Reserve stop hiking the federal funds rate? The question is hugely important for activity and demand in the US economy as well as for financial markets. During his recent press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remained vague about the reaction function of the FOMC but he did mention that they would be looking at real interest rates. This raises the question which inflation measure to use to move from nominal to real rates. A possible solution is to use the term structure of inflation expectations that is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Despite its significant recent increase, the real one-year Treasury yield is still below that reached during previous tightening cycles, with the exception of 2018
Japanese manufacturers are relying more and more on the activities of their overseas-based subsidiaries as sources of opportunities. Sales by manufacturing companies, realised by these subsidiaries, stood at 38.8 trillion JPY (299.7 billion US dollars) in the 2nd quarter of 2022, a record. This represented 28% of the total sales by Japanese manufacturing companies, when we add the sales by subsidiaries abroad to those of companies located in Japan. This percentage is also a new historic high. The main “expatriation” sector by far remains the transport equipment sector (53.6% of the sector’s total sales are realised abroad), an industry that is strongly embedded in global production chains
The latest ECB survey of professional forecasters (SPF) shows a downward revision of the growth outlook and an upward adjustment of the inflation forecast. For next year, the real question is not about the direction of inflation but about the speed and extent of its decline. Slower than expected progress could convince the ECB of the need for more rate hikes than currently priced by markets, implying a bigger output cost of bringing down inflation. Disinflation could indeed take longer than expected. Over the past two years, a variety of factors have led to an exceptionally elevated but also broad-based inflation. Not all shocks have occurred simultaneously and it often takes time for them to work their way through the system, from the producer to the wholesaler to the retailer
A sum-of-the-parts analysis, which is popular in corporate finance, has made its way in the world of central banking, reflecting concern that the multitude of synchronous rate hikes could have a combined tightening effect that is larger than the sum of its parts. To the extent that inflation in a given country is largely a function of global slack, these hikes could cause an unexpectedly large decline in inflation. Rising import prices due to currency depreciation are another factor because they could force countries to tighten monetary policy. Confidence effects may also play a role, especially at the level of export-oriented companies.To address these risks, central banks could insist that synchronous rate hikes should moderate inflation expectations globally
The new Italian government, headed by Giorgia Meloni, has come to power in a challenging environment and divisions have already appeared between the various partners of the right-wing alliance. In addition to political dissension, the Italian economic context is also conducive to tension. Most of the barometer’s indicators have continued to deteriorate in recent weeks, both in terms of business and household indices.
