In 2022, economic growth slowed but was still buoyant. The outlook for 2023/2024 is favourable even though real GDP growth should slow by around 1 percentage point. In the short term, the main risks are linked to rising prices, which could force the Central Bank to tighten its monetary policy further. The occurrence of the El Niño phenomenon is also a potentially negative factor. Despite the slowdown in growth and the rise in interest rates (48% of loans are at a variable rate), banks and companies remain much stronger than at the end of 2019. In its latest stress tests, the Central Bank reaffirmed that, despite the deteriorating economic and financial environment, public banks would not need any capital injection to meet capital requirements.
Over the past twelve months, the economic situation in Pakistan has deteriorated dramatically. The government has been facing a balance-of-payments crisis and, as a result, has had to take extensive measures to try to contain the drop in its foreign exchange reserves and fulfil the IMF’s requirements in order to receive the funds needed to avoid defaulting on its external debt.Restrictions on imports, the sharp rise in policy rates, the depreciation of the rupee and the dramatic cut in budget spending have significantly hindered economic growth and triggered a very sharp rise in inflationary pressures. Since February 2023, the external position has improved very slightly. However, it is still very fragile and the default risk remains very high.
Korean economic growth lagged behind in Q4 2022, and the slowdown is expected to continue in 2023. Exports will suffer from slowing global demand, while domestic demand will be penalised by rising interest rates and persistent inflation. The risks of financial instability remain limited, but have increased in recent months. Household debt is high at almost 110% of GDP, and households are very exposed to rising interest rates. In fact, 76% of loans to households are being taken out at a variable rate. Potential credit risks though remain limited to the most vulnerable households.
Despite the war in Ukraine, Poland’s economic growth was relatively solid in 2022. However, it was erratic with a sharp GDP contraction in Q2 and Q4. For 2023, despite a negative carry-over effect, recession will probably be avoided due to continuous fiscal support. Inflationary pressures remain high in the short term due to wage pressures and the return of the VAT rate on energy to its initial rate. The temporary blocking of European funds since 2022 might, at first glance, raise concerns against a backdrop in which public and external accounts have worsened. However, the inflow of foreign direct investment is a notable shock absorber. In 2022, these flows more than offset the current account deficit.
The Executive's calls for monetary authorities to lower rates are fuelling debates on the appropriate inflation target, the permanence of the Central Bank’s independence and the right calibration for the policy mix. The opposition between both parties is weighing on inflation expectations due to uncertainty over the path of economic policy. To help create favourable conditions for monetary easing, the government has accelerated the presentation of its new fiscal framework. Following the downturn in activity in Q4 2022, the economy should temporarily return to growth in Q1 2023, driven by the strong performance of the agricultural sector. The deceleration - which began in the second half of 2022 - is however expected to resume its course for the remainder of the year
Economic growth should slow significantly in 2023. The relative resilience of private consumption will not be enough to offset the slowdown in external demand, particularly from the US. In addition, the investment outlook remains limited. In the medium term, the Mexican economy could benefit from the relocation of American companies, a trend recently accelerated by the disruption of value chains linked to the pandemic and trade tensions between China and the United States. To take full advantage of this, Mexico will need to restore investor confidence and meet its energy policy commitments.
Argentina’s economy is in turmoil. Since Q4 2022, it has been mired in a recession that is bound to extend at least through H1 2023. The farm sector has been plagued by misfortune: for the third consecutive year it has been hit by drought – whose intensity has been compounded by climate change – and an outbreak of avian influenza. Inflation has soared, forcing the central bank to tighten monetary policy. Despite fiscal efforts, the balance of payments and foreign reserves are coming under increasingly fierce pressures, even with IMF support. The government has rolled out a series of measures to avoid wasting foreign reserves and defaulting on its external debt with official creditors. It has also had to offer a proposal to reschedule domestic debt in the local currency.
Oil production feeds growth volatility in Saudi Arabia, as evidenced by the slowdown expected this year. Nevertheless, the non-oil economy is benefiting from the momentum of investment and household consumption against a backdrop of gradual transformation of the economy and the labour market. State intervention and a favourable exchange rate effect are keeping inflation at moderate levels. Against this favourable economic backdrop, bank lending to the private sector is very dynamic, creating some strain on bank liquidity. The budget surplus posted in 2022 is not likely to be repeated this year due to the expected downturn in oil production and prices. However, public finances are on a positive trajectory thanks to the increase in non-oil revenues.
The crisis is taking hold in Egypt, as evidenced by the deterioration in all macroeconomic indicators. Activity is slowing down against a backdrop of high inflation, caused in particular by the depreciation of the exchange rate. The balance of payments crisis has been endemic for a year, and the international support plan initiated by the IMF has not allowed any reduction in tensions regarding foreign currency liquidity. Despite the sharp rise in nominal rates on government securities, international investors remain cautious due to the very high level of inflation and expectations of currency depreciation. The external financing requirement will remain high for at least two years, with the privatisation programme only providing partial relief
The Algerian economy has enjoyed almost unprecedented favourable conditions for a decade. 2022 saw twin surpluses return thanks to soaring global hydrocarbon prices and a lower than expected fiscal support. Despite the fragile international environment, the outlook for 2023 is positive and macroeconomic risks are limited. Nevertheless, the persistently high inflation poses a risk that must be monitored. Above all, soaring public spending planned in the budget could contribute to further medium-term macroeconomic imbalances, without providing a major boost to economic activity, however.
After years of underinvestment in its power grid, South Africa is experiencing daily load shedding, the intensity of which has only increased in recent months. Economic activity is severely impacted. The restoration of electricity production capacities will be slow, which will have a significant impact on growth and the trade balance in 2023. Supply-side constraints will keep inflation high, while the unemployment rate is a concern. Under these conditions, the ruling party, the ANC, will be pushed to revise its budgetary consolidation trajectory downwards. Furthermore, the partial transfer of the debt of electricity company Eskom to the government will contribute to a sharp increase in public debt.
The recent difficulties faced by some US regional banks have reignited the debate about a potential conflict between pursuing price stability and financial stability at the same time
With alarming inflation across the country, the new governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), Kazuo Ueda, will have a baptism of fire when he takes up his role. Even though price increases are expected to slow down during Q1 2023 thanks to government energy subsidies, core inflation has continued to rise this winter. Price dynamics are posing a major challenge and may force the BoJ into making changes to its interest rate control policy, despite bond yields falling off as a result of the recent US bank failures. The Japanese economy stagnated in Q4 2022, buoyed by foreign trade and private consumption during Q4 2022, but slowed by public and private investment. We expect growth to continue in 2023 (1.2%) at a similar pace to 2022 (1.1%), before a more sluggish growth takes hold in 2024 (0.8%)
Even though euro area inflation likely peaked last October, the disinflation process is expected to be slow, with inflation not expected to fall back to its 2% target level before 2025. The most recent macroeconomic projections from the European Central Bank (ECB) all point to this direction of travel. The second wave of inflation is significant, with the HICP excluding energy climbing by 7.9% y/y in March, while further food-price increases are expected for the months ahead. Despite this, economic activity within the Monetary Union is holding up better than expected against the double shock of inflation and interest rate hikes. While a recession is currently being ruled out for 2023, growth is still incredibly fragile
The UK economy avoided recession in H2 2022 thanks to corporate investment and public and private consumption. Inflation figures in February surprised on the upside and remained at an exceptionally high level, which should continue to erode household purchasing power. As a result, the recession may only have been postponed. We now expect GDP to contract by -0.3% QoQ in Q1, then by -0.2% in Q2 2023. Faced with this situation, the Bank of England (BoE) is not expected to raise its key rate beyond a final hike of 25 basis points in March. This, plus accelerating disinflation, would allow a rebound in growth from H2 onwards.
Recent data in the US show a resilient economy despite the significant and fast tightening of monetary policy. In the Eurozone, the services sector is a source of resilience. Frustratingly for central banks, inflation has also been resilient. This would call for a strong message of further monetary tightening, were it not that uncertainty about the outlook is high. More than ever, central banks need a robust strategy which takes into account a range of possible outcomes. As a consequence, the message from the FOMC has taken a dovish twist. Reading between the lines, the ECB’s message is also softening, as witnessed by the strong emphasis on data-dependency and the role of financial conditions.
The Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey sheds light on how changes in monetary policy influence banks’ credit standards and expected loan demand. Based on the historical relationships, the latest survey points towards a high likelihood of average negative growth of the volume of company and household investments over the next several quarters. Moreover, recent research shows that since 2009, the maximum impact of monetary policy on inflation may be reached more quickly. Based on the relationship between credit standards, expected credit demand and investments by companies and households, as well as on the possibility that transmission lags have shortened, decisions by the Federal Reserve will more than ever be data-dependent.
Outlook for GDP growth, inflation, interest rates and exchange rates.
Monetary policy influences the economy with long and variable lags. They should be considered when assessing the effects of past rate hikes on inflation and its drivers. Bank lending surveys may act as a leading indicator. Historically, tighter credit standards and weak expected credit demand were followed by slower growth of company investments and households’ housing investments. However, the relationship between credit demand and supply factors and household consumption is very weak. Considering the current relatively tight credit standards and weak expected credit demand, one should expect a negative impact on company investment and housing investments by households over the next several quarters.
GDP Growth, inflation, interest and exchange rates
As we enter 2023, the economies of the major OECD countries continue to show signs of resilience.
Outlook for GDP growth, inflation, interest rates and exchange rates
The latest economic indicators updated on February 13 2023 and the coming calendar
Despite the still hawkish messages from the Fed and the ECB, markets are already pricing in rate cuts later this year. What explains these seemingly premature rate cute expectations? They could reflect differences in views on the economic outlook, but it is unlikely these would be so big to justify current market pricing. Another explanation is that investors are rationally managing their risk exposure. Investors know that an unexpected dovish twist in central bank guidance would cause a rally in bond and equity markets. They also know that central banks have no incentive to already soften their guidance but that they have the option to surprise, like they have done in the past. The closer we get to the terminal rate, the bigger the likelihood that central banks would change their message
In the US, financial conditions have eased in recent months and weighed on the effectiveness of the Fed’s policy tightening. Jerome Powell recently gave the impression of not being too concerned, so markets rallied, and financial conditions eased further despite the hawkish message from the FOMC. In the Eurozone, another rate hike by the ECB and the commitment to raise rates again in March caused a huge drop in bond yields because markets expect we’re getting closer to the terminal rate. It reflects a concern of not being invested in the right asset class when the guidance of central banks will change: based on past experience, one would expect that bond and equity markets would rally when central banks signal that the tightening cycle is (almost) over
