In China, manufacturing activity remains dynamic, but rising tensions with most of its trading partners and an increase in protectionist measures are now weighing on export prospects. At the same time, domestic demand continues to be held back by the crisis in the property sector, and credit growth is slowing despite monetary easing measures. Therefore, the authorities are expected to continue to ease cautiously their economic policy in the coming months. The financial difficulties of local governments and, more generally, the deterioration in public finances have reduced the fiscal room for manoeuvre. The central government is being pressed to take a more direct role in support measures.
Indian economic growth reached 8.2% for the fiscal year 2023/2024. However, this performance did not enable Narendra Modi's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to retain a majority in parliament. Over the next five years, the BJP will have to deal with the smaller parties that are partners in the coalition it leads to run the country. Adopting new reforms to further liberalise the economy could prove difficult. In addition, the Prime Minister may have to change the structure of budget spending in order to increase once again the share of subsidies and other social transfers, which have been falling for the past five years
President Lai Ching-te took office on 20 May. He is expected to continue the domestic and foreign policy agenda of his predecessor, in a more tense climate. On the one hand, Beijing could increase its military manoeuvres around the island. On the other hand, Parliament is now dominated by opposition parties, which are expected to slow down or block many government projects. The new administration will at least be able to count on a favourable economic situation to start its mandate. Economic growth has been accelerating over the past year, driven by the rebound in the global electronics cycle
The accession of several Central and Eastern European countries to the EU in 2004 has been accompanied by impressive growth in their respective economies. Improvements in labour productivity have enabled real wages to catch up over the last twenty years, but wage pressures have remained very strong over the recent period without, however, affecting the economies' competitiveness to date. The region also remains attractive for foreign direct investment and continues to benefit from nearshoring activities. In the short term, consolidating public accounts is a priority to comply with commitments under the Stability and Growth Pact. Some countries are already under EU's surveillance, with the opening of an excessive deficit procedure.
Economic growth prospects are improving for 2024, but the recovery is likely to be limited by still sluggish domestic demand. On the foreign exchange market, the Hungarian forint has come under downward pressure recently. On public accounts, the fiscal consolidation that began in the summer of 2022 has not significantly reduced the deficit. For 2024, the deficit will probably be less pronounced than last year, but will remain high in any case (around 5% of GDP). As a result, Hungary will probably be subject to an excessive deficit procedure in 2024
The messages sent out by the Brazilian financial markets and those of the real economy have become increasingly incongruent. Robust economic growth, low unemployment and relatively subdued inflation have become steadily overshadowed by rising political and fiscal risks, which have weighed more heavily on the currency, equity prices and the yield curve. Lula's parliamentary setbacks, his frictions with the Central Bank and increased interventionism have rattled investors already shaken by major revisions to global and local interest rate projections. The challenge for the second half of the year will be to bolster economic agents’ confidence in an effort to stabilise expectations.
Claudia Sheinbaum was elected President of Mexico on 2 June. The political and economic challenges she will face during her mandate are numerous, and mainly concern the sustainability of public finances, the reform of the energy sector (a particularly sensitive point in Mexico, especially in the context of nearshoring and renewed appeal to foreign investors) and the renegotiation of the trade treaty with Canada and the United States (UMSCA) in 2026. In the short term, as a member of the Morena party of the former outgoing President, the new President needs to find the appropriate distance from Andres Manuel Lopes Obrador and his supporters. Discussions relate in particular to the reform of the justice system that AMLO himself had proposed.
The Ley Bases (a set of measures designed to liberalise the economy and, more generally, society) presented by Javier Milei after his inauguration last December was finally adopted at the end of June. As the President's party has no majority in either the Chamber of Deputies or the Senate, the final version was watered down. However, it is a victory for Milei, who is racing against time between an economy sinking into deep recession and the first signs of disinflation. For the government, the fight against inflation justifies the drastic cuts in public spending and the maintenance of a strategy of real exchange rate appreciation
Buoyed by relatively high global energy prices and sustained demand for its gas, the Algerian economy continues to perform strongly. In 2023, economic growth was one of the strongest among the region's hydrocarbon-producing countries, and the outlook for 2024 remains favourable. However, the expansionary stance of economic policy is beginning to show some limitations, not least because of rising fiscal imbalances. While the risks of macroeconomic instability are largely contained in the short term, rebalancing the engines of growth remains a major challenge in the medium term. A number of recent decisions by the authorities are moving in the right direction, but efforts to diversify the economy will need to be continued
Since the beginning of 2024, the Nigerian authorities have accelerated the implementation of reforms aimed at curbing the deterioration in external accounts and restoring macroeconomic stability. By relaxing the exchange rate regime and raising interest rates, the central bank has sent a strong signal to foreign investors. However, it will take time and the implementation of major structural reforms for capital inflows to take off significantly and durably. At the same time, fiscal consolidation is being complicated by an unprecedented inflationary shock and its impact on economic growth. The high cost of implementing reforms could force the government to backtrack.
US growth has clearly moderated in the first half of the year and the latest data for the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric (core personal consumption expenditures inflation) have been welcomed by the Fed and financial markets. The latter are now pricing in a high likelihood of a first rate cut in September. Faced with a still low but rising unemployment rate, the focus of the Federal Reserve is shifting. From exclusively looking at inflation, economic activity and employment also start to matter now, even more so considering the latest progress in terms of disinflation.
GDP growth, inflation, interest and exchange rates.
Having a good understanding of a central bank’s reaction function is important. It influences inflation and interest rate expectations, the level of bond yields, investor risk appetite and economic confidence in general. In the US, different types of information help to improve our understanding of the Federal Reserve’s reaction function: monetary policy rules -which play a prominent role in the material prepared by the Fed staff for the FOMC meetings-, the relationship between inflation, growth, unemployment and the federal funds rate in the Summary of Economic Projections of FOMC members as well as speeches and press conferences
Since a 1977 act, the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve (Fed) has de jure entrusted it with the objectives of maximum employment and price stability (the latter being expected to favour the former in the long term). However, these objectives can come into conflict and, as has been the case since March 2022, the Fed may have to give clear priority to reducing inflation at the risk of damaging employment and output. This refers to the concept of sacrifice ratio or trade-off, i.e. the expected cumulative deterioration of the latter to help bring inflation back to its target (2%).
Our central scenario of a Eurozone take-off and a US soft landing, confirmed by the latest available indicators, is characterised by an expected convergence in growth rates. This base case could, however, be impacted by political uncertainties on both sides of the Atlantic (uncertain outcomes of the early parliamentary elections in France and the US presidential election). Furthermore, while the ECB began its easing cycle in June, as expected, providing timely support for growth, the Fed is still holding back. This extension of the status quo, even if it seems justified for the time being, constitutes another downside risk. However, growth is benefiting from other supportive and resilient factors, chief among them real wage gains
Although we now know the results of the European elections, the implications of these results – in particular the outcome of the snap parliamentary elections in France – remain uncertain. Our central scenario of a Eurozone take-off and a US soft landing, characterised by a convergence of growth rates, could be weakened by political uncertainties on both sides of the Atlantic. However, growth is benefiting from tailwinds and factors of resilience, with real wage gains at the forefront. For the time being, the cyclical situation remains positive for the Eurozone: our nowcast estimates Q2 growth at +0.3% q/q. However, greater uncertainty surrounds the continuation of this recovery.
May’s activity data once again highlights the fairly different dynamics of the various components of Chinese economic growth. Overall performance is still somewhat lacklustre and points to a slowdown in activity in Q2 2024 compared with the previous quarter.
GDP growth, inflation, exchange and interest rates.
Since 2022, South Africa’s external accounts have deteriorated. After two years of exceptional surpluses in 2020 and 2021, the current account has returned into deficit again since Q2 2022, due to the normalisation of trade terms and strong growth in imports (32% of GDP in 2022-23). At the same time, the financial account has not regained its pre-pandemic momentum so far. Net portfolio investment flows, which were close to 3% of GDP on average over 2010-19, have become negative since 2020, while net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows have remained modest (1.5% of GDP on average over 2020-23).
Following the first rate cut at the June meeting of the ECB, the focus has now shifted to the timing and speed of further reductions in the deposit rate. The guidance is vague: decisions will be data-dependent. For investors, estimating policy rules -the relationship between past decisions and inflation and other relevant variables- has merits to get a better understanding. Such a rule shows the key role played by the difference between observed inflation and the inflation target. However, there are important caveats. The estimated rule implies a very slow adjustment of the deposit rate, which is difficult to justify when the ECB is in easing mode
On 5 June 2024, Eurobank Ergasias Services and Holdings, National Bank of Greece, Alpha Services and Holdings, and Piraeus Financial Holdings (in that order the first to fourth largest Greek banking groups by CET1 capital) were authorised by the European Central Bank to pay out a weighted average of 24% of their 2023 net income attributable to Equity Holders. This payout, totalling EUR 875 million, 93% of which is in the form of dividends, is the first of its kind since 2008 for these banks, which between them account for some 90% of the Greek banking system’s total assets.
As expected, the ECB has lowered its policy rate, despite the upward revision of the staff inflation forecast. In the US, the very strong labour market report for the month of May will probably make the Fed even more cautious in deciding on a first rate cut. Until we have resynchronisation -with both central banks being in rate cutting mode-, there should be more desynchronisation, reflecting a difference in the disinflation cycle in the US versus the Eurozone. There is concern that this might weaken the euro versus the dollar and possibly weigh on the ECB’s policy autonomy. Such fears are unwarranted
The massive monetary tightening policy undertaken by the Federal Reserve, starting in March 2022, in order to combat soaring inflation, has driven up mortgage interest rates. This sharp uptick in rates has in turn led to a significant deterioration in demand metrics of the US residential real estate market (notably mortgage applications and existing home sales).Nevertheless, the buoyancy of the US economy at the aggregate level and the healthy financial situation of households have prevented the housing crisis from turning into a systemic crisis. The surge in mortgage rates has also affected the existing home supply, prompting a lock-in effect which has led to an unprecedented divergence between new and existing home sales, which was although insufficient to support the whole market.
