Contrary to what was feared at the end of 2024 and beginning of 2025, goods exports of emerging countries held up well in the first half of the year. According to estimates by the Dutch central planning office, volume exports (excluding price effects) rose by 1% in January-April compared with the last quarter of 2024, and data in volume or in value by country available for the following months confirm this resilience. However, there are significant disparities between regions.
Exports were sustained in Asia. China's performance remains impressive: after a slowdown in January and February, exports picked up strongly between March and May, already up 4% compared to the last quarter of 2024. The decline in shipments to the United States is largely offset by those to the rest of the world, regardless of region. Excluding China, highly industrialized countries (South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan) are performing even better, with aggregate exports in May 12% higher than the average for the last quarter of 2024. Within Asia, India and Vietnam also performed well. This was particularly true of Vietnam, whose exports in value and dollar terms grew by 12% in the first half of 2025 compared with the second half of 2024, even though prices for manufactured goods were under downward pressure.
Latin American countries are also doing well. In the first five months of the year, Mexico's exports increased by 2% in value and in dollars compared to the last quarter of 2024. In Brazil, exports are stagnating due to the downward trend in agricultural commodity prices. However, in terms of volume, growth remains positive as the country is a major beneficiary of purchases of soybeans, meat, and oil, which China used to source from the United States. It should also be noted that despite significantly lower commodity prices since 2023, the value of exports from the main Latin American countries is 40% higher than in 2019.
Compared to other emerging countries, Central European countries appear to be, if not the losers, at least the most vulnerable to changes in global trade since the Covid crisis. After rebounding in 2021 and 2022, merchandise exports by volume have weakened since 2023. As Europe is their main export market, exporting companies have been able to raise their prices in euros and, in some cases, increase their margins in their respective currencies (for countries outside the eurozone, of course). In addition, as in other eurozone countries, exports of services have been buoyant. However, compared to other emerging countries, particularly industrialized countries in Asia, these countries are losing market share in terms of volume for goods. Turkey, for its part, is still holding up well, as companies were able to take advantage of the sharp depreciation of the lira to increase their volume of goods exports until March.
Is this strong export performance in the first half of the year merely temporary? Indeed, on the one hand, importers were able to bring forward their purchases for fear of higher tariffs, while on the other hand, the negative impact of the actual tariff increases could have a real effect on global trade in the second half of the year. In both cases, we should see a deterioration in business confidence regarding future export orders between the first and second quarters.
Overall, this confidence, as measured in June, is lower in two-thirds of cases than in March, which does indeed suggest a decline or slowdown in exports in the coming months. However, two cases must be distinguished in order to assess the severity of the situation. Either this is a simple correction after a particularly strong second quarter, as in Taiwan. Or it is a decline in an already depressed environment, as may be feared for Poland.
