In its latest forecast dated 10 October[1], the WTO revised slightly its growth figures for global goods trade in 2024, to 2.7% (compared to an initial estimate of 2.6%) and to 3.0% in 2025 (compared to 3.3% previously). Although down 0.6% m/m in July, global export volumes remained on an upward trajectory until this summer. However, there are significant differences between geographical areas (chart 1).
In July, the y/y drop in exports from the Eurozone (-1.5%) and Japan (-2.0%) was offset by an increase in exports from the United States (+3.3%), Latin America (+7.5%) and in particular, China (+10.3%). Moreover, new export orders from Taiwan, which are a fairly reliable indicator of the momentum of the tech sector, remain solid (chart 4). They have rebounded 7% since the beginning of the year, on a three-month moving average basis. New orders for electronic products and information and communication products, which account for around two thirds of total orders sent to Taiwan, rose by 7% and 13%, respectively, during this period.
However, global PMIs are more nuanced: the indicator for new export orders fell further into contraction, to 47.5 in September (chart 2). This decline was largely driven by the Eurozone, where the manufacturing PMI fell to 45.0 in September, a low for the current year.
Despite the situation in the Middle East, pressures on global value chains remain contained (charts 3 and 6). Sea freight prices have also fallen significantly in recent weeks, although a slight increase occurred at the beginning of October (chart 5). Since mid-August, the date of its last high, the Freightos Index has fallen by 35%, as a result in particular of a decline by half (-52%) in shipping costs between China and Europe. Transport costs on routes between East China and the US East Coast have also fallen by 30%. The risks to global logistics caused by a prolonged strike by US East Coast dockers have receded for this year, with a temporary agreement having been reached, applicable until 15 January 2025.
[1] WTO | 2024 News items - Global goods trade on track for gradual recovery despite persistent downside risks
INDICATORS OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE
