UNITED STATES
In the US, the prospect of a recession triggered by the monetary tightening still appears as ruled out, given the resilience on the economy illustrated by a +2.5% yearly annual GDP growth in 2023. In the wake of a slowdown in Q1 2024 (+0.3% q/q, following +0.8% in Q4 2023), GDP growth accelerated again at +0.7% q/q in Q2, driven by positive contributions from household consumption and investment. Our baseline scenario implies a +2.6% yearly annual growth rate in 2024, enabled by the 2023 carryover effect as well as an expected increase in real income. The inflation peak was reached in mid-2022 and, while Q1 2024 data had raised concerns, Q2 and early-Q3 data indicate that the disinflation path has markedly resumed. This picture, together with the growing softening of the labour market, paves the way for the Fed to undertake monetary easing. This is expected to start from September, with three rate cuts (-25bps) by end 2024 that would bring the target rate to +4.5% - +4.75%.
CHINA
Economic growth rebounded in Q1 2024 and slowed in Q2. It stood at 5% y/y in the first half of 2024. The different components of Chinese growth have exhibited diverging trajectories. In the manufacturing sector, activity is solid, driven by exports and supported by the authorities’ industrial policy. Its growth momentum is nonetheless likely to weaken in the coming quarters. In the services sector, activity continues to lack momentum. Domestic demand remains held back by the crisis in the property sector, regulatory uncertainties, and low confidence of consumers and private investors. Recent measures to boost activity in the property sector have had no effect so far while domestic credit growth has decelerated since the beginning of the year in spite of monetary policy easing. In the short term, the authorities are expected to keep their industrial policy unchanged while introducing new monetary and fiscal measures that should help stimulate domestic demand. Consumer price inflation increased slightly during the summer (+0.6% y/y in August), but core inflation remains very low and the supply-demand imbalance continues to fuel deflationary pressures.
EUROZONE
Growth in the euro area is expected to stabilise at 0.3% q/q in the third and fourth quarters of 2024, slightly higher than the rate recorded in the third quarter, which has been revised lower by Eurostat: to 0.2%. Significant growth differentials will persist between Member States during the second semester: stronger gains in activity are expected in Spain and Italy than in Germany and France. Overall Eurozone growth would be supported by the continuation of the ECB's cycle of interest rate cuts, which began in June, and which would be followed by two further cuts in September and December. Growth is also expected to be bolstered by a still buoyant labour market and the disbursement of NGEU funds and their deployment on the ground. Inflation risks are balanced at this stage, and we expect headline inflation to gradually converge towards the 2% target by the second half of 2025. The decline in core inflation will be very gradual, due to the persistence of strong, albeit slowing, wage increases.
FRANCE
French economy benefitted from a 0.2% q/q growth in Q2 (after 0.3% q/q in Q1 2024), mainly supported by exports. Disinflation is now visible (the harmonized index grew by 2.2% y/y in August 2024, compared to 5.7% y/y in September 2023) but household consumption growth remains disappointing. As a result, we except no growth acceleration in 2025 compared with 2024 (with a growth forecast of 1.2% for both years, after 1.1% in 2023).
INTEREST RATES AND EXCHANGE RATES
The US Federal Reserve is expected to start its monetary easing cycle in September, with a first 25 basis point cut in the Fed funds rate. This would be followed by two other cuts of a similar magnitude in November and December. One more rate cut is expected from the ECB and the BoE by the end of 2024. On both sides of the Atlantic, however, the policy rates in real terms, and thus the degree of monetary restraint, would remain more or less unchanged. The resulting decline in long-term rates should be limited by the size of bond issuance against a backdrop of quantitative tightening.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) was the first central bank among G7 economies to act in 2024. The BoJ jointly announced the end of its negative interest rate policy and yield curve control policy at the March meeting. As a result, the policy rate target was raised from a corridor of -0.1-0.0% to 0.0-0.1%, before a new +15bps upward movement in July. At the same time, it was announced that the volume of JGBs purchases was to be halved.
We expect monetary policy to normalise gradually in the country, with only one additional hike envisaged by the end of 2024 (-25 BPS), before three more cuts in 2025.
We are fundamentally bearish regarding the US dollar, but it is so far supported by geopolitical tensions and diverging trends between the US and the Eurozone (with stronger growth and inflation and less monetary easing across the Atlantic). This leads us to push back and moderate the expected USD depreciation, especially versus the euro. The yen should also eventually strengthen versus the USD, partly as a result of the desynchronization of monetary policy, as the BoJ is tightening its monetary stance.
