In this issue, Hélène Baudchon's editorial, Christine Peltier's analysis of the latest China economic indicators and our markets review and economic scenario sections.
Although we now know the results of the European elections, the implications of these results – in particular the outcome of the snap parliamentary elections in France – remain uncertain. Our central scenario of a Eurozone take-off and a US soft landing, characterised by a convergence of growth rates, could be weakened by political uncertainties on both sides of the Atlantic. However, growth is benefiting from tailwinds and factors of resilience, with real wage gains at the forefront. For the time being, the cyclical situation remains positive for the Eurozone: our nowcast estimates Q2 growth at +0.3% q/q. However, greater uncertainty surrounds the continuation of this recovery.
May’s activity data once again highlights the fairly different dynamics of the various components of Chinese economic growth. Overall performance is still somewhat lacklustre and points to a slowdown in activity in Q2 2024 compared with the previous quarter.
GDP growth, inflation, exchange and interest rates.
