In this issue, you will find François Faure's editorial, Tarik Rharrab's analysis of the latest uncertainty indicators and the update of our “markets review” and “economic scenario” sections.
Growth in emerging markets held up fairly well until the spring of 2024, partly thanks to the easing of monetary policies since mid-2023. The imminent one in the United States should make it possible to extend or even strengthen it. In the most likely scenario of a soft landing of the US economy, the main risk for emerging economies is a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the Chinese economy. The slump in the real estate sector is spreading through the fall in commodity prices. On the one hand, most emerging countries will gain in disinflation. But, on the other hand, commodity-exporting countries of which China is the main customer will suffer. Above all, the risk of contagion lies in the implications of the Chinese authorities' strategy of supporting growth through foreign trade
Uncertainty around US economic policy, based on media coverage, fell for a second month in a row in August. This drop is likely due to Jerome Powell’s speech on 23 August at Jackson Hole, where the Chair of the Federal Reserve stated that the time has come for policy to adjust, meaning it is time to lower rates. This announcement echoed the views of some Fed officials, as expressed in the Federal Reserve’s minutes published on 21 August.
GDP growth, inflation, interest and exchange rates.
