Eco Week
Economic Pulse

Trend in uncertainty indicator in June

07/17/2024
PDF

In the US, uncertainty about economic policy, based on media coverage, rebounded in June after a brief dip in May. The June increase was probably related to the climate of political and monetary-policy uncertainty in the US a few months from the presidential election.

However, US companies expressed greater confidence about their revenue growth in June, after two months of rising uncertainty. The June improvement was likely the result of PCE inflation falling to 2.6% annualised in May. Whether this lasts will depend, amongst other things, on the soon to be published Q2 GDP figures.

The geopolitical risk index, which is also based on media coverage, has been trending downwards since the start of the year, although it remains very volatile.

Meanwhile, uncertainty about the employment outlook rose sharply in June to its highest level since November 2022. The increase resulted from the unemployment rate rising to 4% in May, its highest since January 2022. In June, the unemployment rate rose again to 4.1%.

In June, the stockmarket-based uncertainty indicator* rebounded in both the Eurozone and the US.

* dispersion of the daily performances of individual companies.

In the Eurozone, the European Commission’s economic uncertainty index fell again in June, due to lower uncertainty in services and among consumers. In the manufacturing, building and retail sectors, uncertainty remained stable overall.

THE ECONOMISTS WHO PARTICIPATED IN THIS ARTICLE

Other articles from the same publication

Editorial
Business sentiment: loss of momentum but no change in direction

Business sentiment: loss of momentum but no change in direction

The S&P Global PMI surveys are a key input in the assessment of the cyclical environment. Judging by the manufacturing PMI, many countries have seen a weakening of momentum in the second quarter of 2024 versus the first quarter [...]

Read the article
Economic Scenario
Economic scenario of 15 July 2024

Economic scenario of 15 July 2024

GDP growth, inflation, exchange and interest rates. [...]

Read the article