UNITED STATES
In the US, the prospect of a recession triggered by the monetary tightening still appears as ruled out, given the resilience on the economy illustrated by a +2.9% yearly annual GDP growth in 2023. In the wake of a slowdown in Q1 2024 (+0.3% q/q, following +0.8% in Q4 2023), GDP growth accelerated again at +0.7% q/q in Q2, driven by positive contributions from household consumption and investment. Our baseline scenario implies a +2.6% yearly annual growth rate in 2024, enabled by the 2023 carryover effect as well as an increase in real income. The inflation peak was reached in mid-2022 and, while Q1 2024 data had raised concerns, Q2 and early-Q3 data indicate that the disinflation path has markedly resumed. This picture, together with the softening of the labour market, paved the way for the Fed to undertake monetary easing. This has started in September, with a jumbo 50bps cut, which is expected to precede two 25bps cuts in November and December, thereby bringing the target rate to +4.25% - +4.5% by year-end.
CHINA
Economic growth accelerated in Q3 2024 (+0.9% y/y vs. +0.5% in Q2) and stood at 4.8% y/y in the three quarters of 2024. To reach the official growth target of “about 5%” set for 2024, activity will have to rebound strongly in Q4. This will require the fast implementation of all the fiscal and property policy measures announced over the past few weeks. Economic growth started to gain some momentum in September. However, on the one hand, the manufacturing sector is likely to face a slowdown in its exports in the coming months due to the rising number of protectionist measures. On the other hand, domestic demand remains held back by significant brakes, including the crisis in the property sector, slower growth in household income, regulatory uncertainties, and low confidence of the private sector. Consumer price inflation stood at +0.5% y/y in Q3 2024, vs. +0.3% in Q2, but core inflation weakened and reached a low point in September (+0.1% y/y); the supply-demand imbalance fuels persisting deflationary pressures.
EUROZONE
Growth in the euro area is expected to stabilise at 0.3% q/q in the third and fourth quarters of 2024, slightly higher than the rate recorded in the third quarter, at 0.2% q/q. However, the difficulties in industry, highlighted by the deterioration in PMIs in September, and the uncertainty about the Chinese economy, increase the downside risks to our forecasts. Significant growth differentials will persist between Member States during the second semester: stronger gains in activity are expected in Spain and Italy than in Germany and France. Overall Eurozone growth would be supported by the continuation of the ECB's cycle of interest rate cuts. After June and October, a third cut is expected at the meeting on 12 December, while the terminal rate is not expected to be reached until the third quarter of 2025. Growth in the Eurozone is also expected to be supported by a still resilient labour market and the disbursement of NGEU funds and their deployment on the ground.
FRANCE
French economy benefitted from a 0.2% q/q growth in Q2 (after 0.3% q/q in Q1 2024), mainly supported by exports. Disinflation is now visible (the harmonized index grew by 1.5% y/y in September 2024, compared to 5.7% y/y a year ago) but household consumption growth remains disappointing. As a result, we except no growth acceleration in 2025 compared with 2024 (with a growth forecast of 1.2% for both years, after 1.1% in 2023).
INTEREST RATES AND EXCHANGE RATES
The US Federal Reserve started its monetary easing cycle in September, with a first 50 basis point cut in the Fed funds rate, which would be followed by two other 25 basis point cuts in November and December. By the end of 2024, another rate cut is also expected both from the BoE (November) and the ECB (December). On both sides of the Atlantic, however, the policy rates in real terms, and thus the degree of monetary restraint, would remain more or less unchanged. The resulting decline in long-term rates should be limited by the size of bond issuance against a backdrop of quantitative tightening.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) was the first central bank among G7 economies to act in 2024. The BoJ jointly announced the end of its negative interest rate policy and yield curve control policy at the March meeting. As a result, the policy rate target was raised from a corridor of -0.1-0.0% to 0.0-0.1%, before a new +15bps upward movement in July. At the same time, it was announced that the volume of JGBs purchases was to be halved.
We expect monetary policy to normalise gradually in the country, with only one additional hike envisaged by the end of 2024 (-25 BPS), before three more cuts in 2025.
We are fundamentally bearish regarding the US dollar, but it is so far supported by geopolitical tensions and diverging trends between the US and the Eurozone. This leads us to push back and moderate the expected USD depreciation, especially versus the euro. The yen should also eventually strengthen versus the USD, partly as a result of the desynchronization of monetary policy, as the BoJ is tightening its monetary stance.
