Overall, based on data available through September 2026, economic activity continues to show resilience. The high levels of business climate surveys illustrate this well. Household confidence, however, is more vulnerable and sensitive to energy price pressures. Financing conditions in emerging economies also continue to hold up well against the shock (much better than in 2022) as well as against the tensions in DM bond markets.
The overall picture from the confidence surveys available for September is globally positive. According to the PMIs, the business climate in services has indeed seen a clear improvement, and that in the manufacturing sector remains comfortably in expansion territory for the 8th month in a row. However, household confidence has recorded its first decline in 5 months, likely driven by rising inflation and concerns over purchasing power.
US macroeconomic performance has remained solid since the onset of the shock, as illustrated in particular by Q2 growth of +3.8% and +9% (annualized quarterly rate) in consumer spending and private nonresidential investment, respectively. In the manufacturing sector, business sentiment has gained momentum despite the shock, while the impact of this shock on the services sector has remained very limited. The immediate reaction of household confidence was, however, more negative before beginning to improve, which was nevertheless interrupted in August.
The average CPI inflation rate across the fifteen leading emerging economies stabilised at 4.3% year-on-year in August. The inflationary impact remains weaker than in 2022, due in particular to reduced spillover effects on agricultural and food prices. Manufacturers’ views on the trend in input and finished product prices have returned to their pre-conflict levels.
Oil and gas markets rose in September, primarily due to the resurgence of significant disruptions to hydrocarbon traffic in the Gulf. Red Sea flows have been constrained, while the substantial oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz remains fragile. In variation, the current rise in oil and gas prices exceeds the one recorded during the 2022 crisis, although in value, gas prices remain significantly lower than in 2022.
