Will the same causes produce the same effects? In other words, will the war in Iran and the resulting surge in oil and gas prices lead to an inflationary shock comparable to that seen in 2022? Will their negative effects on growth be the same as those of the war in Ukraine and the subsequent energy shock?
We have selected a set of indicators to track the impact of this new energy shock - caused by the war in the Middle East - on activity and prices in the Eurozone, the United States, oil and gas markets and emerging countries, and to see how much the current situation resembles that of 2022 at the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine.
This dashboard features charts and comments that will be updated on a monthly basis for as long as necessary.
Overall, based on data available through September 2026, economic activity continues to show resilience. The high levels of business climate surveys illustrate this well. Household confidence, however, is more vulnerable and sensitive to energy price pressures. Financing conditions in emerging economies also continue to hold up well against the shock (much better than in 2022) as well as against the tensions in DM bond markets, which intensified this summer, partly in the wake of the reinforcing upward pressure on energy prices. Higher energy prices are also fueling inflationary pressures and pushing inflation even higher. In particular, Eurozone inflation rose by 0.6 percentage points to 3.8% year-on-year (September flash estimate), reaching its highest level in three years.
