By 2030, according to our forecasts, the dynamics of the public debt-to-GDP ratio would reflect differences in public deficit scenarios. The increase would therefore be significant in the United States, the United Kingdom and France. In the latter two countries, however, it would slow down by the end of the decade due to fiscal consolidation. This will not be the case in the United States, where consolidation is expected to remain marginal.
Germany would see a moderate rebound in its public debt. In Italy, Spain and Japan, the public debt ratio would decline. In Japan, the anticipation of a more pronounced deficit, due to the political choices of the new government, would not slow this decline (due, in particular, to historically high inflation for the archipelago and its impact on real interest rates).
