After the major upheaval of ‘Liberation Day’, the dust has settled somewhat. The level and scope of the new US tariffs are now largely known, and advanced economies are continuing to show resilience [...]
US tariffs rose sharply in two stages: first in April, then following the signing of multiple trade agreements this summer. The impact of the first stage of this tariff increase is well known: trade flows to the United States were severely disrupted [...]
Growth in the United States has slowed significantly compared with 2024 and is expected to remain moderate in the coming months, while maintaining some dynamism [...]
Growth in the Eurozone has so far proved fairly resilient to shocks (accompanied in particular by an acceleration in new lending against a backdrop of falling interest rates) and should gradually accelerate [...]
The resumption of German growth has been hampered by US tariffs. However, the outlook continues to brighten thanks to the government's strategy, which is structured around a vast programme of public investment and incentives for business investment [...]
France recorded a rebound in growth to 0.3% q/q in Q2 2025 after a more unfavorable period marked by political uncertainty. Although this uncertainty persists, the rebound in growth should be sustained [...]
In Q2 2025, Italy's real GDP fell by -0.1% q/q. This decline marks the end of seven consecutive quarters of growth. Investment rose (+1% q/q) but could not compensate for the fall in net exports, while industrial production slipped 1.1% y/y [...]
After a strong first half of the year, Spanish growth should remain higher than that of its European neighbours in 2025 and 2026 [...]
Belgian growth fluctuated in the first half of this year, with a strong Q1 followed by a slowdown in Q2. Nevertheless, our nowcast for Q3 points to growth of 0.3% q/q, with renewed confidence among households and businesses [...]
After solid growth in H1 2025, the second half of the year is expected to see a slowdown (under the weight of US trade policy and UK fiscal policy) [...]
The Japanese economy has been showing some momentum for just over a year. However, this performance is likely to fade in the second half of the year, not least as a result of the tightening of US trade policy [...]
