Labour market: unemployment rate and nonfarm payrollsThe slowdown in job growth continues. Nonfarm payrolls fell to a -22k monthly average in Q4 2025 (+51k in Q3), dragged down by the federal government shutdown (-174k in November). The private payrolls (excl. government) confirmed the slowing trend, standing at +29k compared to +57k in Q3 and +177k one year earlier. The unemployment rate, between 4.4% and 4.5%, remained low but exceeded the CBO's estimate of its natural level (4.3%), while wage growth was relatively stable (+3.7% y/y, -0.1 pp).
Inflation and monetary policyModerating inflation and a rate cut. CPI inflation lowered to +2.7% y/y (-0.2 pp) in Q4 2025. The moderation in non-energy goods brought the Core index to the same level (-0.4 pp), while food and energy prices have been a new issue. Both ISM surveys reported a moderation in the rise in prices paid. The FOMC reduced the Fed Funds target by 25 bp in November and December (not unanimously), bringing it to 3.5%–3.75%. The median projection, subject to disparities, maintained a rate cut in 2026.
