One direct and immediate consequence of Donald Trump's announcements on 2 April on tariffs, which are reciprocal and reduced in name only, was to accentuate the downside risks to the US economy and to seriously shake up the financial markets [...]
After the outperformance of 2023-2024, US growth is expected to slow sharply under the impact of the uncertainty and tariff shocks triggered by the new administration. Recession concerns are returning into the spotlight. [...]
The economic scenario for the Eurozone remains dependent on the evolution of the trade conflict and implementation of possible US reciprocal tariffs of 20%. The increase in defence spending will nevertheless support GDP. [...]
Against a backdrop of heightened international competition and trade tensions linked to the United States' new tariff policy, the German economy is seeing its traditional growth drivers challenged [...]
French growth is set to bottom out in 2025, due to political and trade uncertainties. It should pick up again in 2026, buoyed by a rise in public consumption driven in particular by defence spending and the expected acceleration in German growth. [...]
The mild rebound recorded in Q4 2024 enabled Italy’s real GDP to grow by 0.5% over the year. In 2025, real GDP is expected to grow by 0.8%, while in 2026, it should reach 1.3%. GDP growth is expected to remain subdued in the first part of 2025 [...]
Over the next two years, Spanish growth should be stronger than anticipated in our last issue of EcoPerspectives [...]
A new government has emerged, with the coalition agreement under immediate pressure from protesting unions and criticism on its underlying assumptions [...]
Although the United Kingdom has been penalised less severely than its European neighbours, it has not escaped the 10% tariff floor on US customs duties. The negative impact on activity will add to the pre-existing domestic brakes. [...]
