In this issue, you will find Stéphane Colliac's editorial, Christine Peltier's analysis of the latest China indicators and the update of our “markets review” and “economic scenario” sections.
Discussions on the 2025 draft finance law (PLF) have just begun in the French National Assembly. The backdrop for this PLF must be outlined. France is setting out to consolidate its budget, which is a major yet necessary task. However, things are hanging in the balance due to power struggles in the National Assembly. Over the past few years, a high fiscal deficit has been run up, with the 2024 fiscal deficit and interest burden (which is expected to increase by nearly 1 point of GDP by 2027) leaving the French government with no choice but to take action. In order to stabilise its public debt ratio, France will have to bring its fiscal deficit below 3% of GDP and therefore reduce it each year for at least five years
In Q3 2024, Chinese economic growth accelerated to +0.9% quarter-on-quarter (q/q), after its poor performance in the previous quarter (+0.5% q/q). It stood at +4.6% year-on-year (y/y), which is slightly lower than in Q2, and reached +4.8% y/y over the first three quarters of 2024. In order to hit the official growth target of "around 5%" set for 2024, activity will have to rebound strongly during the final quarter of the year. This means that the fiscal stimulus measures announced by the authorities since the last week of September need to be rolled out quickly. These announcements have provided less details than expected on the stimulus measures and were less significant than expected by the markets
GDP growth, inflation, exchange and interest rates.
