Business climate: PMIsThe business climate is still favourable. In Q4 2025, the manufacturing PMI returned to growth (50.2, +3.1 pp – its highest level since 2024), driven by new export orders. The services PMI reported slower growth (51.7, -0.6 pp), while the composite PMI was virtually stable (51.7, -0.1 pp). Conversely, the construction PMI, which has been contracting for a year, was still clearly suffering and reached a historic low (41.2, -4.1 pp).
Consumer confidenceHousehold consumption has remained sluggish. Real retail sales were stable in November, after falling in October (-1.0% m/m), but declined in the core index (excluding automotive fuel), falling by 0.9% in October and 0.2% in November. Uncertainty surrounding the government budget weighed on household consumption, although confidence returned to its long-term level (-17) in Q4 (-17.7, +0.6 points), according to the GFK index.
