The economy was in good health before the energy shock
Business sentiment (PMI) reached a high not seen since 2013 in Q1 2026, but March data pointed to a slowdown. New household concerns were evident that same month in the decline in consumer confidence (following a post-COVID high in February), which was widespread across its sub-components (overall livelihood, willingness to buy durable goods). This brought an end to an upward trend spanning several months.
Financing is keeping pace with generally healthy growth
Outstanding loans to businesses are on an upward trajectory against a positive backdrop for the investment cycle (evident in GDP and business plans). Outstanding loans have also been rising steadily since the end of Q3 2025. Interest rates charged by domestic banks are on an upward trajectory, in line with monetary adjustment.
