Eco Charts

Italy: Good momentum in Q1, but less certainty thereafter

04/21/2026
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Business sentiment remains solid for the time being, despite the energy shock

Above all, companies are reporting, above all, a rise in input costs, which is expected to lead to higher prices for goods sold in the coming months. Output remains buoyant, in both industry and services. However, household confidence is deteriorating significantly, driven by sharply rising inflation expectations.

The divergence in trends between households and businesses is reflected in lending, as lending to households continues to slow, whilst lending to businesses is picking up

New loans to households for house purchase and consumer loans continued to slow year-on-year in February for the fourth consecutive month. Interest rates remained stable in February. On a year-to-date basis, net bank lending to businesses and net debt issues saw a slight uptick in February, against a backdrop of a moderate fall in lending rates.

Source: Refinitiv, BNP Paribas

In Q1, growth is expected to maintain solid momentum of 0.3% q/q

It is expected to have been supported by investment (via continued disbursements of NGEU funds) and an increase in inventories (a precautionary stance ahead of accelerating inflation). Consumption is also expected to have remained buoyant, driven in particular by the Winter Olympics.

Our forecast for Q2 carries a significant downside risk

Rising energy prices are likely to spread rapidly, and household spending intentions would suffer a setback following the pre-inflation stockpiling observed in Q1. Nevertheless, investment should remain a supportive factor for the rest of the year.

Article completed on 13 April 2026.

THE ECONOMISTS WHO PARTICIPATED IN THIS ARTICLE
Team : Advanced Economies

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