Based in Paris, BNP Paribas' Economic Research Department is composed of economists and statisticians:
« The Economic Research department’s mission is to cater to the economic research needs of the clients, business lines and functions of BNP Paribas. Our team of economists and statisticians covers a large number of advanced, developing and emerging countries, the real economy, financial markets and banking. As we foster the sharing of our research output with anyone who is interested in the economic situation or who needs insight into specific economic issues, this website presents our analysis, videos and podcasts. »
+331 40 14 30 77 thomas.humblot@bnpparibas.com
Net issues of debt securities, cumulated over 12 months, by non-financial corporations (NFCs) were positive in December 2023 (EUR 8.3 bn) for the fourth consecutive month.
Despite the unprecedented rise in interest rates, in Spain, the non-performing loan ratio for households and corporations remains at an all-time low.
The impact on financial expenses of rising interest rates - the result of the European Central Bank tightening its monetary policy - is very mixed, depending on the euro zone country. The impact depends on the proportion of variable-rate loans in outstanding amounts, and also on levels and changes in the amounts borrowed.
Italian commercial banks have drawn heavily on their reserves with the Eurosystem in order to repay the pending portion of the 28 June 2023 TLTRO III maturity.
The transmission of higher interbank rates to bank deposit rates is still limited in Spain.
The interest rate on new home loans for eurozone households rose by an unprecedented 177 basis points (bps) year-on-year in January 2023. It stood at 3.1% this past January compared with 1.3% in September 2021, its lowest level ever.
Business bankruptcies in the European Union increased significantly in the fourth quarter 2022, reaching their highest level since 2015 according to figures published by Eurostat on Friday 17 February. The overall dynamics conceal large sectoral differences.
In 2021, 28% of housing loans made by French banks to individuals were guaranteed by mortgage. This tangible security consists of assigning the real estate asset financed as collateral to the lender, in order to offset the consequences of default by the borrower where these are not covered by any borrower’s insurance against death, incapacity or invalidity.
In just seven months, the share of floating rates in the total of new loans for house purchase to Italian households has more than tripled, from 15.8% in February 2022 to 60.9% in September 2022. This latest figure has not been seen since February 2015 and, at that time, the share of floating rates was in a period of sharp decline, falling from 81.1% in February 2014 to 37.7% in August 2015 [...]
According to the latest figures from the European Banking Authority, the ratios of non-performing loans in the Spanish, Italian and Portuguese banking systems reached record lows in the second quarter of 2022. It also appears that their cost of risk remains relatively low following the sharp increase in 2020 [...]
The share of new loans to Spanish households for house purchase with a fixed rate remained at a record high level of 80% in July 2022 after peaking at 81% in June 2022. This percentage is the result of a complete reversal of the financing model of residential real estate in Spain in 12 years, driven by the low interest rate environment [...]
Outstanding amounts of overdrafts, revolving loans, convenience and extended credits granted by banks to Non-Financial Corporations (NFCs) in the euro area stood at EUR 535 bn as of May 2022 after five months of consecutive increases, a level comparable to May 2020. From their low point of EUR 452 bn in August 2021, NFCs' overdrafts have increased by 18.3%, following a fall of 35.6% which began in February 2015 [...]
Against the background of the war in Ukraine and the marked slowdown in economic activity, the return on equity of the largest Italian banks felt significantly in the first quarter of 2022. The rise in the cost of risk erased the positive jaws effect of the increase in operating income and the decrease in operating expenses. Non-performing loan ratios nevertheless remain at historically low levels while equity ratios remain at historically high levels.
Flows of new non-performing loans of Italian non-financial corporations (NFCs)[1] stood at 2.4% of outstanding amounts of performing loans in the fourth quarter of 2021, from 1.4% in the third. Starting from an historically low level, the significant rise in this ratio[2] is due to the flows of new non-performing loans, which increased by 67% in the fourth quarter of 2021, whilst outstanding amounts of performing loans remained relatively stable [...]
The outstanding amounts of loans and advances that are still subject to banking support measures, introduced in response to the Covid-19 pandemic[1], continues to decrease in the eurozone. It was EUR444 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021, or 3.1% of total loans, from EUR494 billion, 3.5% of the total, in the third quarter of 2021 [...]
The ratio of non-performing loans (NPLs) at Spanish specialised credit institutions (consumer credit, mortgages, leasing and factoring[1]) hit 6.9% in January 2022, its highest January level since 2016. Conversely, the NPL ratio for commercial banks, savings banks and cooperative banks[2] stabilised at 4.2%, its lowest level since March 2009.The increase in the NPL ratio of specialised credit institutions was due to a faster rise in the outstanding amounts of NPLs than in total loans (8 [...]
The number of contactless card payments[1] increased by 61% in France between 2019 and 2020, according to the latest figures from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). The Covid-19 pandemic has encouraged the increasing use of this payment method, which respects social distancing measures. In addition, in order to increase the number of transactions eligible for contactless payments, the cap was raised from EUR30 to EUR50 per payment [...]
The public and private moratoria granted since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic to the Portuguese non-financial private sector[1] have, to a very large extent, now expired. The outstanding amount of loans under moratoria stood at EUR3.1 bn in October 2021, from EUR3.6 bn in March 2020 and a peak of EUR46.3 bn in September 2020. Moratoria now cover only 1.5% of outstanding loans to households and non-financial corporations, from 1.9% in March 2020 and 23.5% in September 2020 [...]
In the Eurozone, gross state-guaranteed loans[1] outstanding amounts[2] issued in response to the Covid-19 pandemic stabilised at EUR 375 bn in Q2 2021. This stabilisation is notably due to the decline in state-guaranteed loans outstanding amounts granted by French and Spanish banks (down EUR 13 bn and EUR 2 bn, respectively), the first decline since the scheme was introduced in Q2 2020. Together, the two countries accounted for 64% of all state-guaranteed loans in the Eurozone in Q1 2021 [...]
In the first quarter of 2021 cumulated amounts of state-guaranteed loans (SGLs) granted by euro area banks reached EUR 376.4 bn, from EUR 184.7 bn in the second quarter of 2020. The proportion of total lending to non-financial corporations (which has remained relatively stable) represented by SGLs thus rose from 3.3% to 6.9% over the same period. French, Spanish and Italian banks have made a particularly substantial contribution to supporting economic activity during the Covid-19 pandemic [...]
The Banker’s rankings of the UK’s five largest banking groups by Tier 1 capital – HSBC, Barclays, NatWest (formerly RBS), Lloyds and Standard Chartered – have generally declined since 2013. This trend, which was initially in step with all of the largest European banks, mainly due to differences in growth rates between geographic regions, has been even sharper in the UK since the vote for Brexit in 2016. HSBC almost maintained its ranking, thanks to its geographic diversification [...]
One year after the introduction of State-Guaranteed Loans (SGLs), 39% of managers of the SMEs that took them out have indicated that they have made little or no use of the funds, whilst barely one-third stated that they had used the majority of their loan. This precautionary behaviour led companies to hoard all or part of their SGL in order to build up a liquidity reserve under favourable terms [...]
The economic shock caused by the Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in a sharp increase in banks’ cost of risk. This has been particularly steep for the Spanish, Italian and Portuguese banking systems, which are notably oriented towards retail banking and have relatively high levels of exposure to the sectors most affected by the pandemic [...]
While the first repayments of State-Guaranteed Loans should take place at the end of March 2021, the amounts granted reached a cumulative sum of EUR 132.2 bn as of 12 February 2021 according to the Banque de France. Since their introduction, the SGLs have benefited more broadly the branches most penalised by the COVID-19 pandemic [...]
Due to the lengthening of the health crisis, the European Banking Authority decided on 2 December 2020 to reactivate its guidelines on legislative and non-legislative moratoria on loan repayments. This decision aims at easing credit instructions criteria for granting moratoria. Moratoria granted in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic before 31 March 2021 will not automatically be considered as a forbearance measure [...]