History tends to repeat itself in advanced economies. Once again, growth ultimately fell short of expectations by only a small margin in the first half of 2026, despite the conflict in Iran [...]
US growth remains resilient despite successive shocks. According to our forecasts, it is expected to reach 2.2% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027 [...]
Growth was stronger than expected in Q2 and is set to strengthen further in the coming quarters. According to our forecasts, it will reach 1.5% in 2027 after 1.1% in 2026 [...]
Growth, which began in the fourth quarter of 2025, gained momentum in the first half of 2026. This momentum should continue, with expected growth of 1.1% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027 [...]
French economic growth will underperform in 2026, partly due to a number of exceptional setbacks. In 2027, it is expected to rebound to 1% (compared with 0.5% in 2026), supported by rising external demand (particularly from Europe) [...]
Italian GDP grew 0 [...]
According to our forecasts, Spanish growth is set to remain stable at a healthy level (2.6% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027), significantly higher than that of the euro area [...]
UK growth remains comfortably above 1% despite successive shocks, and this favourable momentum is set to continue into 2027 (growth forecast at 1.3% after 1.2% in 2026) [...]
There is no longer any doubt that the period of stagnation and deflation is coming to an end. Growth, buoyed by the global AI cycle, is expected to exceed its potential rate (0.6%) once again in 2026 (+1%) and in 2027 (+1.2%) [...]
The drivers of economic growth in each country examined. [...]
Economic and financial forecasts as of September 2026. [...]
