Key takeaways
1. A rise in inflation still confined to energy | Rising energy prices are pushing inflation higher in Europe and the United States, while energy’s contribution is slightly negative in Japan.
2. Some recent pressure on core measures | Over recent months (3m/3m), core indices have been firming in the euro area and Japan: a signal to watch.
3. Mounting pressure on producer prices | In Europe and Japan, pressure on producer prices is building. The risk of the energy shock spilling over to other CPI items is increasing.
4. Rising short-term market expectations | Markets (swaps) are pricing this rise in inflation into short-term measures. Long-term expectations (5y5y) are rising in Japan and the UK.
Dashboard — Energy drives inflation, core barely follows
Inflation backdrop — Energy, food and freight: a broadening supply shock
United States — Contrasting dynamics
United States — An energy shock with significant short-term effects
Euro area — Behind the energy rebound, a relative stability…
… which may not last
Germany —A shock still confined to energy…
… which should keep pushing inflation higher
France — A highly concentrated rise in inflation…
… marked by diverging expectations
Italy — A purely energy-driven shock, for now…
… but input price inflation is strengthening
Spain — Stronger inflationary pressures…
… likely to persist in the coming months
United Kingdom — Energy is weighing on inflation
United Kingdom —Behind prices, a deteriorating picture
Japan — Government measures are tempering the rise in inflation
Japan — Expectations point to the end of deflation
Emerging economies — Rising inflation risk
Emerging economies — Inflation re-accelerated in September or remains high
Find all the charts in the PDF of the publication
Publication coordinated by Guillaume Derrien, Economist Europe, Eurozone, Global trade
