Key takeaways
1. Energy continues to push inflation higher, except in Japan | Energy accounts for almost half of the euro area inflation and for more than one percentage point in the UK. It is also the main driver of the pick-up in 3m/3m annualised inflation in the United States.
2. Underlying pressures are tilted to the upside | Core inflation remains below 3% y/y, except in Spain, but the 3m/3m annualised rate is firming in the United States, France, Italy and Japan.
3. Producer price inflation is gaining momentum | In the euro area, producer prices are rising almost three times as fast as the HICP. The gap is also marked in the United States and the UK.
4. Anchoring preserved | Long-term expectations remain close to 2% in the United States and the euro area. They are easing in Japan and remain stable, albeit at a higher level, in the UK.
Dashboard — An energy shock that is starting to spread
Inflation backdrop — Multiple sources of upward pressure
United States — Core inflation re-accelerates markedly
United States — Rising production costs, falling short-term expectations
Euro area — Core inflation holds firm in the face of the energy shock
Euro area — Reasons for the ECB to remain vigilant
Germany — Inflation eases in October…
…but upward pressures persist
France — An inflation driven mainly by energy prices…
…which is expected to spread in 2027, but not beyond
Italy — A predominantly energy-driven shock…
…but markets expect a return below 2% over the medium term
Spain — Stronger inflationary pressures…
…despite easing in markets
United Kingdom — Inflation picks up again and broadens
United Kingdom — Behind prices, a deteriorating picture
Japan — Government measures are tempering an already entrenched rise in inflation
Japan — Expectations have shifted durably higher
Emerging economies — Inflation risk still rising
Emerging economies — Core inflation is not keeping pace with CPI inflation
Find all the charts in the PDF of the publication
Publication coordinated by Guillaume Derrien, Economist Europe, Eurozone, Global trade
