The Recovery and Resilience Facility, or the so-called RRF, has been drawing heightened attention lately as two deadlines are looming: August 2026 for reform milestones and December 2026 to secure all disbursements. The stakes are high. Countries failing to fulfill the EU’s reform milestones risk losing entitled funds.
Of the EUR 108 bn of total allocated funds, Central Europe still has EUR 44.5 bn awaiting disbursement for the rest of 2026. This is equivalent to 2.1% of the region’s GDP.
Which countries are expecting the most funds?
Hungary is awaiting the largest disbursements. 91% of funds allocated to Hungary are yet to be released. This represents EUR 9.5 bn, or 4.3% of GDP. These funds had been frozen by EU since 2022 due to rule-of-law related matters but were recently unlocked following the election of a new government last April and its reforms pledges. The main challenge consists in meeting the August 2026 deadline related to reform milestones. A calendar extension is not ruled out, given Hungary’s specific case. Including held up cohesion funds, Hungary is potentially eligible to receive EUR 16.4 bn in all, -- about 7.5% of 2025 GDP-- in the short term.
For the remainder of 2026, Bulgaria, Poland and Romania expect large amounts, representing over 2.1% of GDP. Meanwhile, Czech Republic and Slovakia have already absorbed most of their allocated funds.
Which countries may benefit most in terms of growth in 2026?
In terms of GDP growth, Hungary is expected to benefit from a significant boost in the region, provided all the allocated funds are disbursed. The upcoming RRF funds will enhance Hungary’s investment rate, which has declined since 2022, and cushion against the energy shock induced by the Middle East conflict.
Poland’s economy is also in a good position. The country has already achieved around 60% of required milestones and targets (similar to EU average). In H1 2026, it received the fourth payment of EUR 7.2 bn, 0.8% of GDP and has already submitted eight of the nine payment requests. The funds will be directed towards infrastructure investment and towards digital and green projects.
Conversely, Romania faces significant challenges. The current political impasse on the domestic front may delay reforms and could put at risk the full disbursement of remaining funds. Hence the country faces limited ability to compensate for the expected weakening in consumption, induced by high inflation and political uncertainties. So far, the country has only fulfilled 52% of the required milestones.
According to our projections, Central Europe’s real GDP growth will remain firm in 2026, at 2.4% on average. Poland remains the region’s powerhouse with a GDP growth forecast of 3.7% this year. There should be a positive spillover for developed Eurozone countries[1]. The investment uptick in Central Europe will likely increase imports, which will benefit developed Eurozone economies, given strong trade ties between them[2].
[1] European Commission: Economic Impacts of the Recovery and resilience facility: New insights at the sectoral level and the case of Germany, May 2025.
[2] See G. Derrien (with the help of Maëlys Biot): When intra-Eu trade finds a new balance, BNPParibas, July 2026
