In this new podcast, we review the macroeconomic outlook for advanced economies. Despite a series of geopolitical and energy shocks, the global economy continues to show unexpected resilience.
The latest economic news.
Equity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.
It was true at midyear, and it remains true this fall: the global economy continues to show remarkable resilience, with tailwinds continuing to prevail in their tug-of-war with headwinds.We believe these tailwinds will persist and ultimately win, leading to an acceleration in growth in 2027, particularly in the largest advanced economies. But there are some downsides to the situation, the tug-of-war remains tough, and risks are numerous. Here is a brief overview of our recently updated economic forecasts and their key messages.
Overall, based on data available through September 2026, economic activity continues to show resilience. The high levels of business climate surveys illustrate this well. Household confidence, however, is more vulnerable and sensitive to energy price pressures. Financing conditions in emerging economies also continue to hold up well against the shock (much better than in 2022) as well as against the tensions in DM bond markets.
Oil and gas markets rose in September, primarily due to the resurgence of significant disruptions to hydrocarbon traffic in the Gulf. Red Sea flows have been constrained, while the substantial oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz remains fragile. In variation, the current rise in oil and gas prices exceeds the one recorded during the 2022 crisis, although in value, gas prices remain significantly lower than in 2022.
The 2026–2027 El Niño climate event is expected to be one of the most intense in the last fifty years, with sea-surface-temperature anomalies potentially exceeding +3°C in the equatorial Pacific. According to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), El Niño is expected to persist until February 2027, with asymmetrical effects, as South-East Asia and northern Latin America will experience droughts, while southern Brazil and Argentina could see heavy rainfall. Above all, El Niño is compounding the effects of global warming and exacerbating existing extreme-weather events (droughts, floods and heatwaves). The economic effects of this climate shock mainly play out through three avenues: agricultural commodity prices, energy and logistics.
History tends to repeat itself in advanced economies. Once again, growth ultimately fell short of expectations by only a small margin in the first half of 2026, despite the conflict in Iran. As early as 2025, the impact of tariffs was less severe than feared. This is a sign that structural factors (notably AI, defence and electrification) are underpinning growth in these countries and are expected to continue to do so in 2027. However, there are significant risks to the economic outlook, primarily of a geopolitical nature, with a significant upside risk to inflation and interest rates
GDP, inflation, unemployment, current account balance, public deficit and public debt: key indicators for the second quarter of 2026
The drivers of economic growth in each country examined.
Economic and financial forecasts as of September 2026.
As we begin the 2026 financial year, long-term sovereign bond yields are reaching unprecedented highs not seen for decades. Why is this happening? Is it sustainable? What are the implications for the world’s various economies? These are just some of the questions addressed in this new Special Edition video, introduced by Chief Economist Isabelle Mateos y Lago.Drawing on insights from the banking sector and teams specialising in emerging and advanced economies, the economists from Economic Research will explain why the rise in bond yields is problematic.
When economists talk about public debt, they often refer to the ‘sustainability’ of the debt. Hélène Baudchon, deputy chief economist, explains what this means and when a debt trajectory can be considered unsustainable.
