Key figures for the French economy compared with those of the main European countries, analysis of data on the population and the French labour market, activity by sector, publication administration figures, inflation, credit and interest rates, corporate and household accounts.
Main trade protection measures put in place since Donald Trump took office in the United States on January 20, 2025
In May, the United States stood out for an increase, albeit very slight, in its inflation (from a higher level), while it slowed sharply in the eurozone and fell slightly in the United Kingdom and Japan. Among the unfavourable developments to watch out for, energy commodity prices (oil and gas) have started to rise again since April, as has the break-even inflation rate, which could support inflation over the coming months. Conversely, two positive dynamics are emerging: wage growth is moderating, and price pressures on the supply side are easing, with the notable exception of the United States.
The economic news and highlights of recent days selected by the economists of the Economic Research.
Equity indices, Currencies & commodities, and Bond markets.
The updated economic scenario and forecasts of the Economic research
Last December, the Economic Research department of BNP Paribas invited you to discuss the consequences of Donald Trump's return to power on the global economy and its repercussions on energy and climate issues.Six months on, it is time to take stock of his second term's turbulent start. Faced with threats to trade and a new logic of negotiation by force, how will the United States' trading partners react? Will we see new alliances emerge or existing ones strengthen? How will China position itself? What about Europe?
The latest economic news.
The first half of 2025 was marked by two major turning points: the outbreak of a global trade war by the United States and, on the European side, announcements regarding rearmament efforts and the German investment plan, supporting the Old Continent's economic revival. The second half of the year will be marked by the aftermath of these announcements and is likely to be as hectic as the first, given the continuing uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the tariffs. The uncertainty surrounding the extent of their inflationary impact in the US and the duration of the Fed's monetary policy status quo is also significant. The risk of a derailment caused by fiscal policy remains
Our nowcasts for Q2 2025 deliver a positive message, with significant growth in the Eurozone (+0.3% q/q, after a very solid Q1 at 0.6% q/q), accelerating in France (+0.2% q/q) and rebounding in the United States. For the latter, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow (+0.9% q/q) shows a strong improvement due to the highly atypical profile of imports.
Since the Paris Agreement (2015), the green bond market has been on the rise. Although still modest on a global scale (USD 2,900 billion, which is barely 2.5% of total bond outstandings), its size has more than quintupled over the last five years. The eurozone has been the driving force behind this take-off, followed at a distance by the United States and China.
Since January 2025, the United States has announced major reversals in its foreign and trade policies. For developing countries that depend on international aid, the suspension of USAID and the increase in tariffs on US imports create a double shock that will durably weaken their economic prospects.
