The US-China trade conflict and Brexit have been acting as a headwind for growth for a considerable time now. Recent developments have raised expectations that these sources of uncertainty may have peaked. Should it turn out to be the case, this could spur spending by unleashing pent-up demand by companies or households. However, in an environment of slowing global growth and, quoting the IMF, a precarious outlook for next year, we probably will see a more limited reaction, with other sources of concern taking over from the previous ones: uncertainty make have peaked in certain areas, but is likely to migrate to other.
According to the IMF’s chief economist, the growth outlook is precarious. Although the Fund expects somewhat of a pick-up of growth next year, this is driven by a small group of emerging and developing economies which are currently under stress or underperforming. The modest growth acceleration reflects country-specific factors, rather than the expectation of a broad-based improvement. In the US, the growth slowdown is expected to continue well beyond 2020 and Chinese growth is projected to decline to 5.8% next year. Against this background, the projected slight pick-up in the eurozone, driven by Germany and Italy, and which supposes that external demand regains some momentum, looks challenging.
We monitor uncertainty by means of different metrics. Starting top left and moving clockwise, the economic policy uncertainty index, which is based on media coverage, is at a historical high, on the back of US-China trade tensions and fears about a disorderly Brexit. The recent trade deal between the US and China, although of a very limited scope, and the agreement between the UK government and the European Union on Brexit, have fuelled hope that uncertainty will abate in the near term. This obviously remains to be seen...
The usefulness of carbon pricing lies in the abatement incentives that it creates. An implicit carbon price can be derived by dividing the revenues from carbon pricing systems and excise taxes on fuels by the total greenhouse gas emissions. According to this method, prices range from close to 0 in most developing countries but also the US and Canada, to close to 100 euro for 1 tonne carbon emitted in Sweden and Switzerland. The chart confirms that the countries that have relatively high implicit carbon prices also rank high in terms of carbon productivity defined as the amount of GDP produced per unit of carbon emissions. This suggests that in order to increase carbon productivity, i.e
The slowdown of global growth has gathered pace, forcing the Federal Reserve to cut the federal funds rate on two occasions, whereas the ECB has announced a comprehensive easing package. Nevertheless, the slowdown is expected to continue. Uncertainty is pervasive. Companies question the true state of demand faced with slower growth, trade disputes, Brexit worries, geopolitical risk. Corporate investment suffers and may impact households via slower employment growth. The room to boost growth via monetary policy and, in many countries, fiscal policy has become limited, and this is another factor which could weigh on confidence. Surveys of US corporate executives point towards high concern about recession risk and the US yield curve inversion adds to the unease
The Federal Reserve and the ECB are in very different positions: the former has more room to ease policy and it is also closer to its policy targets. The ECB has limited remaining policy leeway but is confronted with an inflation shortfall versus its aim and a risk that this gap would increase, rather than narrow. These differences have led to diverging approaches in the conduct of and communication about monetary policy. The Fed is data-dependent and, except for the projections of the FOMC members, offers no guidance. The ECB is agnostic about the data and builds its communication around state-dependent forward guidance: policy tightening will be solely conditioned by meeting its target
Business surveys in the US paint a diverging picture: manufacturing is worsening significantly but services have picked up nicely. Taking a broader perspective, evidence is building of a slowing economy. Less dynamic growth can be observed in engines of growth of the world economy: China and India, although reasons differ. In Europe, Germany is probably already in a technical recession whereas France is resilient. Central banks are back in easing mode but the effectiveness will be hampered by elevated uncertainty, despite the announcement of a new round of trade negotiations between the US and China.
Growth concerns for both advanced countries and emerging countries have picked up again on the back of a collection of new economic data but also — and perhaps more importantly — due to continued high uncertainty. The latter stems from escalating tensions between the US and China over trade. The effects of this confrontation already show up in the Chinese data while in the US, mounting anecdotal evidence also point to its detrimental impact on business and the agricultural sector. The Federal Reserve has turned a corner and indicated that rate cuts are coming, much to the joy of the equity market. The ECB has also changed its message: with risks tilted to the downside and inflation going nowhere, it considers more easing is necessary.
Fed Chairman Powell, in his address to Congress this week, has confirmed that easing is coming. In June, ECB President Draghi provided similar hints. This comes on the back of growing concerns regarding global growth and ultimately facing too low a level of inflation. Risks may be mounting, but, on the other hand, the unemployment rate is close to the natural rate. There are reasons to assume that monetary easing under full employment would be less effective than when the economy is marred in recession. Monetary easing could also raise concerns about financial stability, which, if unaddressed, could weigh on the ability of monetary policy to successfully boost inflation.
A sigh of relief followed the publication of first quarter GDP data. However since, growth concerns have picked up again on the back of a collection of new economic data but also — and perhaps more importantly — due to continued high uncertainty. The latter stems from concerns over the extent of the slowdown and its consequences in terms of economic risks. It also emanates from escalating tensions between the US and China over trade. The effects of this confrontation already show up in the Chinese data while in the US, mounting anecdotal evidence also point to its detrimental impact on business and the agricultural sector. The Federal Reserve has turned a corner and indicated that rate cuts are coming, much to the joy of the equity market
A high level of uncertainty can act as a drag on growth. Whether monetary easing will succeed in boosting growth will depend on the nature of uncertainty. Endogenous uncertainty follows from the normal development of the business cycle and rate cuts should succeed in reducing this uncertainty by boosting confidence of economic agents. Exogenous uncertainty is not driven by the business cycle but is triggered by other factors, such as, in the current environment, ongoing trade disputes. In this case, monetary policy effectiveness suffers and, despite rate cuts, the growth slowdown should continue until its root cause (exogenous uncertainty) is addressed.
High levels of uncertainty can have a profound impact on economic activity and financial markets. Our Pulse presents different metrics.
ECB President Mario Draghi, speaking at Sintra, has raised expectations of renewed policy easing.The message from the FOMC meeting is that rate cuts are coming. This policy synchronisation reflects shared issues (inflation too low versus target) and shared concerns, the major being rising uncertainty. Should this continue, the effectiveness of monetary accomodation will suffer.
In a recent survey of 469 CFOs of US companies, 84% expect that the US will have entered recession by the first quarter of 2021. This raises the concern of self-realising bearish expectations. A positive correlation between business confidence and company decisions could reflect (anticipations of) strong fundamentals. It could also be due to animal spirits. The role of the latter is confirmed by empirical research by cesifo using data for German companies. In the aggregate, optimistic animal spirits have a bigger impact than pessimistic animal spirits.
Against a background of trade tensions between the US and China, economic policy uncertainty remains very high. Uncertainty of German companies, measured by the dispersion in their assessment of the business environment, is no longer increasing, yet remains at a high level. Uncertainty of US companies had dropped at the start of the year, but has now rebounded a bit. Geopolitical risk, measured using news coverage, has been on a rising trend since early 2013, although it has eased recently. Uncertainty based on the dispersion of the stock market performance of individual companies has declined since the start of the year.
The relationships between government debt, economic growth and interest rates are complex and varied. In general, a recession causes an increase in government debt and a decline in government borrowing costs. A prolonged period of monetary accommodation during a cyclical upswing can cause the average nominal interest rate on government debt to drop below the rate of nominal GDP growth. Depending on the level of the primary balance, such a situation can, under certain conditions, create leeway for fiscal expansion in order to support growth.
May Day is approaching. It is the occasion to celebrate progress made in improving workers’ rights. It can also be an opportunity to recall how much the quality of social dialogue matters for a well-functioning of the labour market. According to 2018 Global Competition Review of the World Economic Forum, the quality of labour-employer relations is relatively high in continental northwest Europe and Japan. At the same time, these countries score very well in terms of labour market outcomes. The lightly regulated labour markets in the English-speaking countries have also achieved low unemployment levels, although jobs are less well protected. In the southern European countries, the social dialogue seems to function less well. Unemployment in these countries has remained persistently high
Recent data in China and the eurozone point towards a stabilisation of growth and have been met with relief. Although the US economy is slowing, growth should remain at a satisfactory level in the near term. Yet there are lingering concerns about the underlying strength of the global economy. The IMF has again scaled down its forecasts and only expects a modest growth pickup later this year. The flattening of the US yield curve fuels worries that growth will disappoint. The Fed insists it is confident about the outlook and patient in setting its policy. Markets have welcomed this accommodative message. Yet the signals sent by equity and bond markets about future growth are quite different. It only adds to the list of concerns.
The different uncertainty measures are sending mixed signals. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, which is based on media coverage about policy uncertainty, is no longer increasing but a downward trend has not yet started.
Strong job creation in March in the US has brought relief after the disappointing data the month before. The Chinese manufacturing indices have rebounded and crossed the 50 level. In the eurozone, the pressure on the manufacturing sector continues but the services PMI has improved. Retail sales have beaten expectations. For the manufacturing sector, a lot will depend on how uncertainty evolves. In this respect there are hopeful signs. The likelihood that an agreement will be reached between the US and China has increased whereas in the UK, cross-party negotiations seek to avoid a hard Brexit.
The Federal Reserve will conduct a review of its monetary policy framework and the conclusions will be made public in the first half of 2020. Three questions will be addressed: should the monetary policy stance take into account past misses of the inflation objective? Are the tools adequate? How can communication be improved? The initiative should be welcomed because it shows the Fed’s efforts for being ready when the next recession hits. Facing similar challenges, the ECB is likely to be interested in the outcome of the Fed research.
When households (companies) feel more uncertain, they will spend (invest) less. After a jump last year, the number of media articles mentioning uncertainty, has declined somewhat recently (top left chart).
The latest survey data show a very mixed picture. In the manufacturing sector, China saw some signs of stabilisation, whereas Japan experienced a deterioration. In Germany, manufacturing remains under pressure. The picture in the eurozone is quite diverse, depending on the country and the sector. Looking at the broadest survey indicator for the eurozone, one observes a stabilisation. Whether this will be confirmed depends to a large degree on developments in China and on the well-known sources of uncertainty (trade, Brexit).
Since early 2018, based on the purchasing manager indices, a large number of countries have witnessed a decline in the assessment of new export orders which was bigger than the decline of the general climate in manufacturing. This suggests a dominance of foreign demand shocks, rather than domestic shocks, in explaining slower overall growth. The drop in new export orders echoes the significant slowdown in world trade growth. This is probably related to slower Chinese growth and, in many countries, slower growth in capital expenditures, which have a higher import content than consumption. Trade-related uncertainty may also play a role.
The Paris climate deal, concluded at the COP21 in 2015, pleads for keeping global warming below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. However, in its latest report, the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) warns that current mitigation policies are insufficient to obtain this objective. Investments in renewable energy and electricity infrastructure have to be stepped up. The power sector has to be decarbonised, the use of electricity increased, and energy efficiency improved. Low carbon policies are difficult to implement because of commercial interests and social impact, in particular concerning the increase in carbon prices