Eco Week
Economic Pulse

Mobility is still favourable despite the pandemic’s rapid spread

07/18/2021
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DAILY CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES (7-DAY MOVING AVERAGE)

The number of new Covid-19 cases continues to rise worldwide. The surge is due to the Delta variant, which is much more contagious than the other variants. It has now spread to more than 110 countries. The number of daily cases passed the half million mark on July 13 and 14. Over the past seven days, the number of new cases worldwide rose to 3.3 million, 14% higher than the previous week. In North America and Europe, the pandemic is progressing rapidly again, with 942,189 and 756,195 new cases, respectively, over the past seven days, up 49% and 36% compared to the previous week (see chart 1). With 1.3 million new cases (+19%), Asia alone accounts for nearly 40% of the new contaminations, most of which were reported in Indonesia and India. At the same time, vaccination campaigns continue to advance, and 26% of the global population has received at least one dose of the vaccine since the campaigns began (chart 2).

SHARE OF PEOPLE WHO RECEIVED AT LEAST ONE DOSE OF VACCINE

Despite the health crisis, retail and leisure footfall remains high in the advanced countries. In France, it has returned to the pre-pandemic level (4%), joining Belgium (6.6%), which has been back to normal for several weeks (chart 3). In contrast, in the other advanced countries (Germany, Italy, Spain, the United States, Japan and the UK), footfall still falls short of pre-Covid levels, even though business has virtually returned to normal.

The OECD Weekly Tracker of annual GDP growth in the main leading economies continues to decline, except in the US, where it has picked up (chart 3). Caution should be used when interpreting the OECD Tracker, which is based on Google Trends resulting from queries on consumption, the labour market, housing, industrial activity as well as uncertainty, due to a base effect (comparison with the beginning of the pandemic a year ago).

RETAIL AND RECREATION MOBILITY & OECD WEEKLY TRACKER

Google Mobility Reports show how visits and length of stay at different places change compared to a baseline. The baseline is the median value, for the corresponding day of the week, during the 5-week period Jan 3–Feb 6, 2020. A figure of negative 30% indicates that traffic was down 30% compared to a baseline. The reports show trends over several weeks with the most recent data representing approximately 2-3 days ago—this is how long it takes to produce the reports. In order to smooth the series, we use a seven-day moving average of the raw data in the Google Mobility Reports. Source: Google.

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