Global exports have levelled off for almost two years, after a strong increase in 2021. Export growth has stagnated in both emerging and advanced economies. However, the CPB data show a slight rebound in exports in volume terms in August, at 1.1% m/m, although the annual rate is still negative at -2.3%. The monthly increase was driven by China (+5.3% m/m) and the United States (+1.3% m/m),
GDP growth, inflation, interest rates and exchange rates
The geopolitical risk index, which is based on the number of newspaper articles mentioning adverse geopolitical events, has recorded a huge increase in October. Whether this influences decisions of households and firms depends, amongst other things, on the (ir)reversibility of these decisions. Based on empirical research on the consequences of a significant increase in uncertainty, there is a concern that the recent jump in geopolitical uncertainty would directly and indirectly -via energy price uncertainty (oil, gas)- weigh on discretionary household spending and hiring decisions by companies, with both reactions potentially reinforcing each other. Considering that these decisions are easily reversible, the impact could be rather swift
Data on GDP, inflation, interest and exchanges rates.
Faced with the urgency of climate change, many countries have begun their ecological transition, with the war in Ukraine only accelerating the movement. After soaring in 2022, investment in “clean” energies is set to reach a new record in 2023: around USD 1,800 billion worldwide, or 1.7 points of GDP, according to estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Although the search for new fossil fuels has not yet come to a halt, it is now mobilizing less capital (around USD 1,200 billion).
Economic surveys in September are sending out mixed signals. Consumer confidence is falling in most countries, which in some cases (France, Spain) underlines a slight rise in inflation. This loss of confidence is also accompanied, in general, by a decline in purchasing intentions for durable goods, which can be linked to high interest rates and an expectation of a moderate downturn on the labour market. Lower consumer demand is affecting companies' order books, with an impact that varies according to sector. In industry, economic surveys are more affected, while in services, activity remains dynamic in the US and Japan, while being more modest in Europe.
In the US and several European countries, gross public sector borrowing requirements are expected to remain sizeable and the reduction in the size of central banks’ balance sheets -quantitative tightening- complicates matters. The impact on bond yields will depend on the risk-bearing capacity of investors. Their ability and willingness to increase their exposure to duration risk depends on several factors: the existence or absence of strict duration risk limits in portfolios of institutional investors, risk aversion in reaction to recent bond yield volatility, uncertainty about the outlook for official interest rates, the correlation between bonds and equities, the balance sheet capacity of financial intermediaries
In the US, economic policy uncertainty, based on media coverage, increased slightly in September, after four months of decline. The economic policy uncertainty, based on media coverage, increased slightly after four months of decline. In the Eurozone, the European Commission’s economic uncertainty index also moved upwards in September.
The rate hikes cycle is coming to an end. The further weakening of economic activity and lower inflation that we expect to see by the end of this year should prompt the Fed, like the ECB and the BoE, to stop raising their policy rates. However, a further tightening cannot be ruled out. Interest rate hikes would not be followed immediately by cuts: to continue the fight against inflation, monetary response is expected to hold policy rates at their current high level for an extended period, until mid-2024 according to our forecasts. The first rate cuts would then occur to accompany the sharper fall in inflation and offset its positive impact on real policy rates. From this point of view, monetary policy would remain restrictive until the end of 2024.
In this series of two podcasts Andrew Craig, co-head of the Investments Insight Center at BNP Paribas Asset Management, interviewed William de Vijlder, group chief economist of the Economic Research of BNP Paribas regarding the central banks policies to fight inflation. Among the questions answered in the first episode are: Are we at the peak or can we expect further rates hikes? Is the inflation going to declines? at which pace?
In the second and last episode of the series on central banks and their fight against inflation, Andrew Craig and William de Vijlder are looking beyond the peak and discuss what will come next. Among the questions are: how long will central banks hold rates at these levels? How long will they plateau at these current levels? what come after that?
The third quarter 2023 ended with an eighth consecutive decline in the S AND P Global composite PMI. This is an increasingly tangible evidence of a slowdown in the world economy and this negative signal is reinforced by the level of the index now close to the 50-point threshold separating the expansion zone from the contraction zone (50.5 compared to 50.6 in August). While the manufacturing PMI picked up slightly to 49.1 (compared to 49.0 in August), but still indicating a contraction, the services PMI continued to deteriorate for the eighth consecutive month.
PIB growth, inflation, interest and exchange rates
Elevated inflation has forced central banks across the globe to tighten monetary policy aggressively. When we look at the United States and at the Eurozone, we observe nevertheless that many hard data show a high degree of resilience.
In the United States, core inflation dropped again in August, as did the pace of wage growth. In the eurozone, headline inflation has fallen slightly below core inflation since July. The situation in the United Kingdom remains the most worrying, but the latest developments have been relatively positive. In Japan, the new inflationary context is leading to a recalibration in market expectations.
World trade in goods (exports and imports combined) continued to fall during the first months of the summer, but the trend must be put into perspective: apart from a few sectors, and mainly the automotive sector, the pent-up demand following the pandemic seems to have almost completely vanished; the trend in trade activity is therefore returning to levels more consistent with the ones prevailing before the arrival of Covid-19.
GDP Growth, inflation, interest and exchange rates.
BNP Paribas Chief Economist William De Vijlder interviews Hélène Baudchon, Head of the OECD Economic Research team; Richard Malle, Global Head of Research at BNP Paribas Real Estate; and François Faure, Head of the Emerging Markets and Country Risk team. They take stock of the global economic situation against a backdrop of inflation, rising interest rates and monetary tightening by central banks. Are we coming to the end of this monetary tightening cycle? What are the impacts on economic growth and financial markets? Have official rates reached a peak in the eurozone or the United States? What influence has the rise in interest rates on the property market? What is happening in emerging countries? These questions will be addressed in three chapters. Enjoy your viewing!
In the world of central banking, nothing is what it seems. The ECB’s recent rate hike was considered dovish whereas the pause by the Federal Reserve received the label hawkish. These reactions show that, beyond the rate decision, the accompanying message also matters. That of the ECB was interpreted as signaling that the terminal rate had been reached. In the US, the latest rate projections of the FOMC members -the dot plot- point toward another hike before year end and a federal funds rate that would stay elevated for longer. This is unsurprising given the resilience of the US economy in reaction to the aggressive monetary tightening and the concern that bringing inflation back to the 2% target would take more time
In the Euro zone, the European Commission economic uncertainty index resumed its decline in August, continuing the trend started in autumn 2022. Uncertainty is declining in almost all sectors, but the construction sector where it has increased again.
GDP growth, inflation, interest and exchange rates.
In August and September, the economic indicators of the main OECD economies point to a downturn. Business climate surveys in the UK and the euro zone - and especially in Germany and France - point to an already marked weakening of the economy. In the United States, this is expected, particularly by households. We predict this will happen from Q4 onwards. Japan is the exception, with the Services PMI remaining high.
