GDP growth, inflation, interest and exchange rates.
News about growth, inflation and monetary policy influences bond and equity markets. For bonds, the relationship is straightforward but for equities, the relationship is more complex. Therefore, the correlation between bond prices and equity prices fluctuates over time. Since 2000 it has been predominantly negative, thereby creating a diversification effect. It underpins the demand for bonds, even when yields are very low. Unsurprisingly, during the recent Federal Reserve tightening cycle, the correlation has turned positive again. Based on past experience, one would expect that, as the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates later this year, the bond-equity correlation would turn negative again.
2024 should be the year of the start of the easing cycle by the Federal Reserve, the ECB, and the Bank of England, primarily to accompany the easing of inflation. However, the timing of the first cut remains uncertain, as does the number of expected cuts. Conditions for a first rate cut in June seem to be in place for the ECB, which, according to our forecasts, would thus act before the Fed, whose first rate cut is expected in July (instead of June previously). The possibility is rising that the Fed will not cut rates at all this year because of the resilience of growth and inflation. Such a prolonged Fed monetary status quo could have more negative than positive consequences.
US inflation March figure, again higher than expected, put an end to our scenario of a simultaneous first rate cut by the Fed, the ECB, and the BoE in June. We now expect only two rate cuts by the Fed this year, the first in July and the second one in December. The possibility is even rising that the Fed will not cut rates at all this year. On the ECB’s side, we maintain our expectation that the first cut will occur in June, but we have ruled out our back-to-back cuts forecast (i.e. June, July and September), favouring a more gradual easing of one cut per quarter (in June, September and December). The ECB would end up cutting rates before the Fed.
In the United States, economic policy uncertainty, based on media coverage, resumed rising modestly in March, following a marked decline in February. This increase can be attributed, in part, to the February inflation figure (3.2% year-on-year according to the BLS consumer price index). By exceeding consensus expectations (3.1%), this negative surprise further pushes back the prospect of Fed policy easing.
GDP growth, inflation, exchange and interest rates.
Despite the rebound in the United States, inflation continues overall to slow in the G7 countries and in the euro area as a whole. In Japan, keeping consumer prices above 2% will remain complicated in the short term, due to the loss of momentum observed this winter: inflation rebounded in February due to base effects, but the 3m/3M annualised rate fell back to 1.3%. The decline in the 3m/3m annualised rate is more marked in services, down to only 0.4%. The wage increase granted following the annual wage negotiations (Shunto): 5.3% in total, including 3.7% in base salary, will nevertheless support the BoJ in its (very gradual) attempt to normalise monetary policy
An analysis of the latest PMI indicators, by Tarik Rharrab.
Intermittent, cumbersome and... expensive: while the criticisms levelled at renewable energies are still numerous, they are increasingly unfounded.
Tensions on global maritime freight have eased in recent weeks but remain significant and the outlook uncertain due to the disruptions in the Red Sea. The global supply-chain tension index – from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York – rose above its long-term average in February for the first time since January 2023. But the Freightos and Baltic indices both fell nearly 15% in the first three weeks of March.
GDP growth, inflation, exchange and interest rates
According to the latest economic data, the divergences in growth between the US, Europe and Japan are expected to remain at the beginning of 2024. In Europe, the economic situation in Q1 was once again disrupted by exceptional factors, this time linked to the Red Sea crisis, which particularly affected automotive production in January and, by extension, industrial production.
When questions have been answered, new ones pop up, reflecting a shift in focus. We are again experiencing this phenomenon. Recent comments by Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell have provided implicit guidance on the timing of the first rate cut. The focus is now shifting to how fast and how far policy rates will be reduced
Recent communication by the Federal Reserve and the ECB has made it clear that the first cut in official interest rates is coming. Both central banks are saying the same -it depends on the data- but the ECB communication is more opaque than that of the Federal Reserve, which provides interest rate projections of the FOMC members (dot plot). In assessing how fast and how much the ECB might cut policy rates in this cycle, several approaches can be adopted. Based on the credibility of the ECB and plausible estimates of the neutral rate, it makes sense to use an assumption of a range between 2.00% and 2.50% for the ECB deposit rate as the end point of the easing cycle.
Key figures for the French economy compared with those of the main European countries, analysis of data on the population and the French labour market, activity by sector, publication administration figures, inflation, credit and interest rates, corporate and household accounts.
In the US, the latest Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia paints a rather upbeat picture of the economic outlook. A similar survey of the ECB points towards a gradual pickup in growth this year. In both cases, the level of disagreement is low. This provides reasons to be hopeful about the economic outlook. However, the alternative scenarios are predominantly negative for growth and inflation, and some have totally different implications for the evolution of bond yields. This would mean that as time goes by and the likelihood of the different alternative scenarios evolves, bond yield volatility could be high.
In the United States, economic policy uncertainty, based on media coverage, fell significantly in February, following a rebound in January. The index fell from 124 to 97, the lowest level since July 2023, when the policy rates were last raised. With US growth and the labour market continuing to hold up well, the economic outlook appears to be brighter and less uncertain. This gives greater credit to the scenario of a soft landing for the economy, and greater comfort for the Fed’s cautious stance and to take its time before cutting rates.
Consumer price disinflation stalled at the beginning of the year in Europe and the United States. With the tailwinds of energy price deflation fading, core inflation, which is still high, now accounts for almost all of the price increases in the United States. This is less true in the euro area and the United Kingdom, where food inflation still contributed almost a third to headline inflation in January. The decline in inflation in 2023 has led, in all areas, to a downward shift in household inflation expectations in the short-term (1 year) towards long-term expectations (5 years). Wage growth continues to outpace inflation and fuel a recovery in purchasing power, which appears to be stronger in the United States and the euro area than in the United Kingdom.
In February, the S&P Global Composite PMI improved for the fourth consecutive month (+0.3 points), to 52.1, its highest level since June 2023. This is a fairly clearly encouraging signal for Q1 global growth, especially as this improvement is being driven both by the manufacturing and services sectors. In February, the global PMI index in these two sectors reached its highest level since August 2022 and July 2023, at 50.3 and 52.4 respectively.
The economic situation in January and February highlights the uncertainties surrounding 2024 with, on the positive side, improvements in the business climate in several countries and resilient labour markets (Europe) or labour markets remaining dynamic (US). Combined with a disinflation trajectory not yet spreading to all sectors (services in particular), all these factors are tending to defer expectations of rate cuts.
