As we enter 2023, the economies of the major OECD countries continue to show signs of resilience.
GDP contraction was avoided in Q4 2022 for the Eurozone, France, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan, the decline was moderate in Germany and Italy, and growth was stronger than expected in the United States.
The risk of recession, if it has not disappeared, has lost in intensity and imminence. Confidence surveys are, for the most part, pointing upwards, which bodes well for Q1 2023. The labour market continues to perform well even if signs of a slowdown begin to appear. While the resilience of growth to downward pressures is good news, the downward resilience of inflation is not. Households are losing purchasing power and this is affecting their spending, to varying degrees depending on the country. It also means that central banks have not yet finished with rate hikes.
