Initially estimated at +0.1% q/q, growth in the eurozone in Q1 2023 is now slightly negative, at -0.1% (after a similar drop in Q4 2022). This downward revision was driven by that of German growth. The succession of two quarters of decline in GDP defines a “technical” recession, which it is at this stage: the contraction in GDP is small and it is not broad-based to all growth components neither to all the Member States.
The analysis of the cyclical environment tends to focus on the change in the level of economic variables (growth, inflation), rather than on the level (activity, prices) itself. However, both matter. The recent decline in energy price inflation is good news but the price level remains well above that recorded at the start of last year. In the manufacturing and construction sectors, the assured production based on the level of order books remains very high. This might explain what hiring plans remain elevated. However, the order intake has been slowing. Historically, such a development has been followed by a reduction in the length of the assured production
According to the latest data, inflation in both the euro area and the US is mainly driven by its core component and thus, at first glance, by demand. Supply factors are also at work through the spillover effects of the shock on energy and commodity prices and food inflation. These first-round effects show first signs of fading, which should pull inflation down more sharply in the coming months. Wage dynamics are closely monitored given their inflationary nature, which is modest but persistent, justifying the monetary response.
Based on the PMI data and the European Commission business surveys, it seems that in the Eurozone, industry is clearly slowing down, demand is softening and labour market bottlenecks have eased somewhat. In combination with input prices that are down, this should lead to an easing of output price inflation. In services, the picture is different. Hiring difficulties remain a big constraint on activity, momentum in terms of activity and orders has improved. Input price and output price inflation has eased only slightly. Such a dichotomy complicates the task of the ECB: ongoing strength in services would imply that past rate hikes didn’t yet have a significant impact and would justify more tightening, but this would only make things worse for the industrial sector
Eurozone growth in the first quarter of 2023 was +0.1% q/q according to the data available at the time of writing. This is below our forecast (+0.3% q/q), and therefore rather disappointing, even if it surprises favourably compared to our nowcast estimate (-0.0%). This low growth also puts into perspective the perceived resilience coming from most survey and activity data during the first quarter.
How much and how quickly inflation will decline in the Eurozone is of key importance for the ECB, households, firms and financial markets. There is concern that disinflation might be slower than expected until now. The latest ECB survey of professional forecasters shows an increase in the number of participants expecting inflation to remain elevated. Inflation persistence can have different sources: a succession of shocks, staggered price adjustment by firms, price and wage increases that try to compensate for the past increase in costs and the loss of purchasing power, evolving inflation expectations. Going forward, the tightness of the labour market, the strength of wage developments and the momentum in service price inflation are key factors to monitor.
Already noticeable in Q4 2022, the effects of monetary policy tightening on the distribution of bank credit in the eurozone intensified significantly in Q1 2023.
The current inflationary situation is unprecedented in many respects. Indeed, some of its strength lies in the ability of firms to pass on the rise in their production costs in their selling prices. This is known as pricing power. And it allows companies to preserve their margins in a difficult environment.
Industry, services: which sectors will bring the other in its wake? This is the question that arises when one observes the current divergence of the S&P Global PMI indices for the euro area
The release on Friday 28 April of the first estimate of euro area Q1 2023 GDP growth will quantify the resilience reported by most available surveys and activity data for this quarter. We expect moderate positive growth (+0.3% q/q, forecast slightly revised upwards.
After last year’s significant depreciation versus the dollar, the euro has found a new strength. Key factors are the reversal in the current account balance, which after moving into negative territory last year is back into surplus, and, since the autumn of 2022, the narrowing of the 1-year interest rate differential with the US.This reflects the view that the Federal Reserve is approaching the end of its tightening cycle whereas the ECB still has more work to do. We expect that this factor will continue to drive the exchange rate in the coming months. Moreover, there is also a higher likelihood that the Federal Reserve will cut rates before the ECB does
Even though euro area inflation likely peaked last October, the disinflation process is expected to be slow, with inflation not expected to fall back to its 2% target level before 2025. The most recent macroeconomic projections from the European Central Bank (ECB) all point to this direction of travel. The second wave of inflation is significant, with the HICP excluding energy climbing by 7.9% y/y in March, while further food-price increases are expected for the months ahead. Despite this, economic activity within the Monetary Union is holding up better than expected against the double shock of inflation and interest rate hikes. While a recession is currently being ruled out for 2023, growth is still incredibly fragile
In the longer run, the business climate in industry and services are highly correlated but in the short run large divergences can at times be observed. This has been the case in recent months following a strong rebound in services and a far weaker improvement in industry. Services cover a variety of activities and those that are very correlated with manufacturing have seen a weaker performance as of late. Tourism and recreation have low correlation with manufacturing and have been very dynamic. This may reflect there is still post-Covid-19-related pent-up demand and/or a combination of a pick-up in wage growth and a still strong labour market. Whether this can last will to a large degree depend on how the overall economic environment influences the labour market outlook.
Give or take a few details, the economic overview for February is a carbon copy of the economic overview for January: rather positive in terms of survey data, negative in terms of inflation.
The interest rate on new home loans for eurozone households rose by an unprecedented 177 basis points (bps) year-on-year in January 2023. It stood at 3.1% this past January compared with 1.3% in September 2021, its lowest level ever.
Business insolvencies started to increase again in Western Europe during 2022. In the United Kingdom and Sweden, where growth has deteriorated since the start of 2022, these insolvencies were even higher than their pre-Covid level, with a more significant increase in retail and wholesale trade. In the Eurozone, insolvencies are still below pre-Covid levels, but the current tightening of credit conditions raises the risk that they will reach those levels during 2023. This also applies to France, where there is a risk of wider negative consequences, in particular because these insolvencies take the form of liquidations to a greater extent than before Covid.
The European Commission survey of consumer confidence has found, over the past four months, a marked improvement amongst German consumers, driven by an upturn in their expectations for the general economic situation. Conversely, French consumer confidence remains depressed and is still not showing any sign of improvement. Assessments of the past situation are also diverging, with that in Germany also improving, albeit to a lesser extent.
The preliminary inflation numbers for February had the effect of a cold shower due to the acceleration of core inflation. To assess the observed price developments since the start of last year, monthly inflation has been calculated for the more than 400 HICP components. The frequency distribution for average monthly inflation between October 2022 and January 2023 has hardly shifted compared to that for the first quarter of 2022 but the nature of inflation has shifted. Annual energy price inflation has dropped but food price inflation continues to accelerate. As the different shocks reverberate, inflation becomes sticky. Going forward, wage developments should also play a key role
Monetary policy influences the economy with long and variable lags. They should be considered when assessing the effects of past rate hikes on inflation and its drivers. Bank lending surveys may act as a leading indicator. Historically, tighter credit standards and weak expected credit demand were followed by slower growth of company investments and households’ housing investments. However, the relationship between credit demand and supply factors and household consumption is very weak. Considering the current relatively tight credit standards and weak expected credit demand, one should expect a negative impact on company investment and housing investments by households over the next several quarters.
In January 2023, according to S&P Global PMI data, the business climate continued to improve for the third month in a row, bringing the composite index just above the 50-point expansion mark for the first time since June 2022. This recovery applies to both the manufacturing sector and services, and it is good news. We regard it as a sign of relief following over-pessimism at the end of 2022 fuelled by fears about energy supply and soaring prices. A relapse cannot be ruled out.
While goods disinflation is expected to increase, or even turn into deflation in the coming months, services inflation is expected to show more inertia (due in particular to the shelter component), slowing the overall decline in inflation.
Banks surveyed by the ECB between 12 December 2022 and 10 January 2023 as part of its Bank Lending Survey (BLS, published on 31 January) report a tightening of the criteria for all loan categories in the fourth quarter of 2022. For companies, tightening is even the most pronounced since the sovereign debt crisis (2011).
Surprisingly, according to European Commission surveys such as the Standard Poor's Global PMIs, the business climate improved quite significantly in the Eurozone despite the accumulation of setbacks. The improvement was evident in all activity sectors as well as in relation to advanced components (for new orders). However, the level of the surveys remains relatively depressed.
The drop in gas prices, the decline in headline inflation and the improvement of survey data in December have created a feeling that for the Eurozone 2023 might be better than expected hitherto. The survey data bode well for the growth momentum at the turn of the year, which could create a favourable carry-over effect for GDP this year and some hope that lower inflation will mean fewer ECB rate hikes. However, caution is warranted. Inflation remains far too high and core inflation has moved higher in December. Moreover, survey data provide little or no information on the pace of growth beyond the first quarter of this year.
It seems highly likely that for the eurozone, 2023 will bring an easing in inflation, a contraction in GDP and a peak in the ECB’s policy rates. The uncertainties lie in the scale of disinflation and of the recession, and in the level and timing of the peak in rates. According to our forecasts, the fall in inflation will be rapid on the surface (with headline inflation dropping from around 10% y/y in Q4 2022 to 3% in Q4 2023), but this will mask a slower fall in core inflation, which we expect to remain above 2% in a year’s time, from 5% at present. In the face of this persistent inflation, we expect the ECB to hike its deposit rate by 100bp, to 3%, by the end of Q1 2023 and then maintain this restrictive level throughout the year, despite the recession
