Household spending intentions have been improving in the Eurozone for two years, and in January 2026, they returned to their early 2022 levels, despite a much more gradual improvement in the household confidence index. Households’ fears about unemployment and living standards in general have weighed on consumption and have contributed to its moderate growth. Moreover, these fears have continued to dampen consumer sentiment. However, these concerns are easing and no longer seem to be hindering a potential rebound in consumption, as evidenced by purchasing intentions.
Europe is getting better and better. It has not been spared shocks, notably the war in Ukraine – its impact on energy prices is largely responsible for German stagnation – and political uncertainty in France, which affected French GDP growth in 2025. But Europe is overcoming these difficulties. GDP Growth in the Eurozone proved robust, at 1.5%, and 2026 should be a positive year, even more than in 2025. Industry has emerged from recession, buoyed by defence, aeronautics and AI, while households are showing purchasing intentions not seen since February 2022. All these factors will help Europe to continue building its strategic autonomy. The context is favourable and Europe is becoming increasingly credible in the eyes of investors.
The issue of European sovereignty has been on everyone's mind recently. Among its many dimensions, sovereignty in retail digital payments is often cited as an urgent gap to be filled. In fact, two-thirds of digital payments in the Eurozone rely on non-European providers, mainly American. However, this situation is not inevitable, and 2026 could well be the year when a European alternative takes off and reaches critical mass.
In the Eurozone, the improvement in the business climate points to stronger activity. Household confidence remains moderate but spending intentions are rebounding. The unemployment rate is close to its low point, and inflation remains under control.
Lending rates are relative stable since September. Bank financing flows to Eurozone corporations are expanding faster than market financing flows. In France, outstanding loans continue to recover overall.
Today, we're looking at household consumption, which remains the main driver of growth in both the Eurozone and the United States. As we all know, household consumption suffered a major negative shock during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Growth in the Eurozone is expected to strengthen in 2026 (1.6%) primarily driven by investment and a resurgence in activity in Germany. Our forecasts indicate that inflation is likely to remain below the 2% target. However, the anticipated recovery in GDP growth may prompt the ECB to keep its rates unchanged until 2027 before raising them. The fiscal impulse is expected to remain largely neutral, as fiscal consolidation in France and Italy offsets the increase in the German deficit. Interest rates on new loans to households and businesses are projected to remain stable in 2026, with new loans continuing to decelerate for both households and businesses. However, sovereign rates are expected to rise moderately.
2025 saw a renewed appetite among European consumers for electric cars. This enthusiasm comes after a lacklustre 2024, when registrations stagnated following the late 2023 announcement regarding the reduction of budgetary support in France and the complete withdrawal of such support in Germany. Yet, numerous studies, including the joint report by Pisani-Ferry and Mahfouz, had deemed these subsidies crucial.
Since the pandemic, household consumption has evolved very differently between the Eurozone and the United States. In Europe, weak growth in real gross disposable income, moderating wealth effects, and rising real interest rates have dampened demand. In the United States, however, consumption has exceeded what fundamentals would suggest, buoyed by the housing wealth effect and fiscal stimulus. This divergence is likely to narrow, however, with the Eurozone gradually correcting its underperformance, albeit unevenly across countries, while the United States is expected to see an end to its outperformance, without falling into underperformance.
The Eurozone labour market remains dynamic. The unemployment rate, at 6.3% in September, remains close to historic lows, while net job creation, although slowing in 2025, continued in Q3 (+0.1% q/q). According to Eurostat, the Eurozone has created almost seven million additional jobs since the end of 2019.
This is a positive surprise, and it deserves to be highlighted in the current context: according to initial estimates, growth in the Eurozone in the third quarter was higher than expected.
There has been remarkably limited interest in Europe at recent international economic and financial gatherings, as if “Europe’s moment”, as ECB President Lagarde dubbed it back in the Spring, has already passed in the eyes of many. Meanwhile, European media outlets have been indulging in negative narratives about political risks, persistent industrial doldrums, and inability to implement reforms that might preserve Europe’s place in a world increasingly dominated by the US and China. And yet, under the radar, a lot of good things have been happening.
Today's deficits are tomorrow's taxes. Therefore, it is logical for households to save rather than spend the public transfers they receive, since these are incurred through debt and will eventually need to be repaid.
Following PwC in June, the ECB presented its own assessment of the costs of a digital euro for banks in the Eurozone. Thanks to extensive cost synergies, their initial investment over the first four years, estimated at EUR 18 billion by PwC, would, according to the ECB, be within a more modest range (between EUR 4 and 5.77 billion). But this amount, which has attracted a lot of attention, is not the only issue at stake, as the recurring cost of replenishing banks’ reserves with the Eurosystem could, in the long term, weigh more heavily on financing conditions.
Exports from Central European countries (Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic, Romania, Slovakia) have shown great resilience since the beginning of the year despite the US tariff shock. The automotive sector, a major pillar of the region's economies (both for industry and exports)[1] , has also fared well overall, while exports from the sector contracted in Western European countries in the first seven months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.
The unexpected element lies in the (highly likely) lack of surprises. The suspense surrounding the outcome of the FOMC meeting on 28-29 October and the ECB meeting on 30 October is, in reality, quite limited: a further 25 bp cut by the Fed and a continuation of the stance for the ECB are expected. In doing so, by narrowing the gap between policy rates and the extent of restriction in US monetary policy, the Fed's stance is aligning more closely with that of the ECB rather than moving away from it. Such a simultaneous lack of suspense for both central banks is uncommon, especially given the overall economic environment, which remains fraught with uncertainty.
The public debt ratio is rising again in the Eurozone, while its equivalent for non-financial companies (NFCs) is decreasing. The October 2025 Fiscal Monitor of the IMF forecasts that the public debt ratio will increase by 5 points of GDP in the euro area by 2030 compared to its 2024 level (87.2% of GDP, compared to 83.6% in 2019). Against this background, the debt of non-financial companies reached its lowest level since Q3 2007 in Q2 2025, at 66.6% of GDP.
Modernity sometimes conceals, under new guises, a return to old precepts: a currency backed 100% by the safest assets, bank deposits guaranteed by tangible reserves, the search for unfailing financial stability. Stablecoins (digital tokens backed by highly safe and liquid assets) are part of this logic. However, in our modern economies, banks only keep a small fraction of deposits in reserve with the Central Bank: this is the principle of "fractional reserves" which gives them the ability to create money (the remaining deposits can be allocated to credit). Beyond the intellectual interest that they attract, stablecoins raise a broader question: if their use were to become widespread, would they not risk making it more difficult to finance the economy?
In August 2025, the decrease in market rates (Euribor, swap, etc.), which began in October 2023, had been passed on in full to the rates on new bank loans to corporations and households in the Eurozone. Banks generally tend to adjust the pricing of new loans to the cost of their resources with comparable maturities. Swap rates are good reference rates in this respect, as they provide a reliable approximation of what the market considers to be the expected path of short-term rates for a wide range of horizons.
The recovery in PMI indices continues despite a decline in industry. In September 2025, the composite PMI reached its highest level since May 2024 (51.2), an improvement attributable to services (51.4). However, the manufacturing index, which had been recovering sharply since the beginning of the year, declined in September (-1.2 points to 49.5). Industrial production rose by 0.3% m/m in July. The economic sentiment index stabilised in Q3.
Rates on new investment loans (irf>5 years) to non-financial corporations in the Eurozone fell very slightly in July 2025 for the second consecutive month. At 3.58%, however, they remained close to their June 2025 level. Rates on new treasury loans (floating rate and irf<3 months) to NFCs fell slightly more sharply to 3.31%. Conversely, rates on new loans to households for house purchase and consumption rose just as modestly (by +1 bp and +6 bp m/m, respectively). They stood at 3.30% and 7.41%, respectively.
After historic increases, lending rates for households and businesses are calming down. Should we expect a return to normal?
Despite the announcement of the US-EU trade deal at the end of July, the short-term growth outlook for the Eurozone remains uncertain. This is well illustrated by the fact that professional economists, whose forecasts usually converge towards the end of the year, are currently continuing to disagree to a large extent about this year’s euro area growth.
Growth in the Eurozone has so far proved fairly resilient to shocks (accompanied in particular by an acceleration in new lending against a backdrop of falling interest rates) and should gradually accelerate. Exports will continue to be weakened by Chinese competition and US protectionism. However, the foreseeable rebound in German growth will benefit economic activity in the Eurozone as a whole. Moreover, the buoyant labour market is supporting household purchasing power, without generating inflationary pressures, giving the ECB visibility and room for manoeuvre if necessary.
Broadly speaking, the economic outlook for the global economy at the beginning of September remains largely unchanged from that at the end of July: namely, an economy that, overall, continues to withstand the double blow of US tariffs and uncertainty. Our current scenario expects an average annual growth of 1.6% in the United States in 2025, followed by 1.5% in 2026 and 1.3% in the Eurozone for both years (after 2.8% and 0.8% respectively in 2024). So, while the pace of US growth is expected to remain higher than that of the Eurozone, the outlook is for a slowdown across the Atlantic. On the Eurozone side, however, signs of recovery, albeit tentative, tend to predominate, to the point where the Fed is ready to resume its rate cuts and the ECB is ready to halt them
