Largely spared by the Covid-19 pandemic, Norway reported one of the mildest recessions in Europe in 2020 (-2.5%). The economy is poised for a vigorous recovery in the second half, driven by the acceleration of global trade and the rebound in household consumption. In the light of these favourable prospects, and concerned about the acceleration in house prices, Norges Bank intends to begin raising its key rate gradually as of September, even though core inflation is low.
The labour market should play a crucial role in the recovery through its impact on household income and spending. There are reasons to be hopeful considering that recent business surveys show a further increase in hiring intentions whereas unemployment expectations of households have dropped below their pre-pandemic level. Household intentions to make major purchases over the next 12 months have already increased and this trend should continue on the back of an improved financial situation and reduced income uncertainty.
An accelerated vaccination campaign reduces uncertainty for economic agents – households and companies – and offers a brighter economic outlook. The Bank of Japan’s Tankan index rose in Q2 2021 in both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors.
The Pulse for Italy continues to improve reflecting both a genuine economic rebound and positive base effects arising from the drop-off in activity in H1 2020. Base effects were especially strong in industrial production and retail sales, which in April were still below the year-end 2019 levels.
The fiscal response to the health crisis has been swift, substantial and multi-pronged. Emergency measures, seeking to cushion the recessive shock and facilitate economic recovery, have been joined by recovery packages that support the ongoing upturn and pave the way for future growth. There are, however, disparities between countries as to the sums involved and the distribution of the measures. On our analysis, Italy has made the biggest effort, with a total running at 71% of GDP. It is followed by Germany, with 47%, Spain, with 31%, and France with 26%. As a percentage of GDP, Germany, France and Italy have made greater use of liquidity measures and guarantees, whilst Spain has focused on fiscal measures
The Covid-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on the Moroccan economy. After an unprecedented 6.3% decline in GDP in 2020, the first signs of a recovery are still fragile, even though vaccination campaigns are progressing in both Morocco and Europe, by far the country’s biggest trading partner. This is mainly due to the sluggishness of the tourism industry. It is thus vital that the authorities continue to provide support this year. Despite the rise in public debt, fiscal consolidation is unlikely to start before 2022. The rating agencies S&P and Fitch have downgraded the country to speculative grade. For the moment, however, macroeconomic stability is not a major source of concern. But tight fiscal manoeuvring room could become problematic in years to come
The improvement in global growth prospects and the success of the vaccination campaign have helped sustain the recovery in Chile’s growth seen since Q3 2020, despite the reintroduction of relatively strict health protection measures in the early part of 2021. Household consumption grew strongly and is likely to continue to drive growth, boosted by stimulus measures and the opportunity given to a large number of employees to draw on their pension savings. In all, GDP is likely to grow by 6% in 2021, after a 5.8% drop in 2020. This said, the risks are on the downside. External risks relate mainly to trends in the pandemic and progress in vaccination on a global level
Eurozone member states mobilised massive public resources in response to the Covid-19 emergency, providing support for households as well as companies facing a loss of business. As a result, the public debt ratio rose sharply in 2020 to 98% of GDP. Since there is still a big need for economic support in the first part of the year, the Eurozone debt ratio will probably cross the threshold of 100% of GDP in 2021. The ECB plans to continue purchasing assets as part of its Pandemic Emergency Purchasing Programme (PEPP) at least until March 2022, at a time when the Eurosystem currently holds nearly 30 percentage points of GDP in Eurozone public debt instruments. The first disbursements of the Next Generation EU recovery plan are slated for the second half of 2021
In Sweden, the economy continued to rebound in the first quarter with GDP up 0.8% q/q, driven primarily by exports, inventory building and an upturn in household consumption. On a year-on-year basis, growth is about to swing into positive territory (-0.1% y/y in Q1 2021). Confidence surveys suggest that the recovery is only just beginning. According to the European Commission, the business climate in industry has surged over the past two months to a record high since the creation of the survey in 1996. It also improved strongly in services. Consumer confidence has also picked up, albeit not quite as robustly
The cyclical trough seems to be behind us in the Eurozone at a time when vaccination campaigns in the member states are accelerating. From a macroeconomic perspective, the catching-up dynamic seem to be stronger than expected by many analysts. Yet the general economic improvement masks important sector disparities. The Covid-19 crisis will have stronger and more lasting effects on certain sectors, like hotel and restaurant services. In the months ahead, there is a risk that more companies will go bankrupt, especially in the hardest hit sectors.
The increase in supply side difficulties identified by INSEE’s economic surveys in April 2021 requires a closer look. It is to be hoped that it will not hold back a recovery that is only just beginning to take shape. The rise has been particularly noticeable in the industry sector and has mainly been blamed on procurement problems that significantly exceed average levels from past years. In the construction sector, a shortage of labour has been the main difficulty (as it was before the crisis) but procurement constraints have also increased sharply. In the services sector, supply side difficulties relate primarily to health protections measures. In this sector however, demand side problems are affecting a greater number of companies
Japanese exports rose by 16.1% year-on-year in March 2021, after declining by 4.5% the previous month. This has been the biggest increase since November 2017. Although this strong performance partially reflects a positive base effect – Japanese exports were hard hit by the pandemic in spring 2020 – it was nonetheless much higher than the consensus expectations, which anticipated a 11.6% growth. Broken down by destination, Japanese sales abroad increased in the large majority of countries worldwide, especially in China, its leading trading partner, where Japanese exports were very buoyant last month (+37.2% year-on-year in March). Globally, the strong performance of Japanese exports takes place in a context of international trade improvement and of a strong rebound of the Chinese economy
At the end of the annual “Two Sessions”, China’s major political event, Beijing announced its economic targets for 2021 as well as the priorities of its new five-year plan. By setting this year’s real GDP growth target at simply “more than 6%”, which is lower than forecasts, the authorities are signalling that the economic recovery following the Covid-19 crisis is no longer the main focus of concern. In the short term, they will continue to cautiously tighten monetary policy and gradually scale back fiscal support measures. Above all, the authorities have affirmed their medium-term development strategy, which aims to boost innovation and drastically expand China’s technological independence.
Having contracted by 2.1% in 2020, the Indonesian economy is likely to see only a modest recovery in 2021. Domestic demand is struggling to recover. Consumer sentiment remains weak and any resurgence in the pandemic could undermine the recovery, at a time when a very low percentage of the population has been vaccinated. Moreover, despite the highly expansionary monetary policy, bank lending has continued on its downward trend. The financial position of Indonesian companies prior to the Covid-19 crisis was more fragile than those of ASEAN peers, and they are likely to seek to consolidate their positions rather than invest in an uncertain future. The banking sector remains solid and well-placed to deal with an expected increase in credit risk.
The health crisis continues to worsen – undermining the economy to a point of entertaining a recessionary risk in the first half of 2021. In this context, confidence has plummeted and financial markets have retreated. The vaccination campaign – after facing significant logistical challenges – has finally begun to accelerate since mid-March and with the concomitant introduction of new restrictive measures, the hope is that the epidemic curve will reach an inflection point over the next two months. Faced with rising inflation and inflation expectations, the Central Bank launched its monetary tightening cycle, which – against a backdrop of slowing economic activity and a high sovereign interest burden – has exacerbated budgetary pressures and risks
Thanks to a strong Q4 rebound, the contraction in real GDP was limited to 8.2% in 2020, the public deficit did not swell as much as expected, and 2021 growth prospects were given a boost. Yet the recovery is still fragile: private consumption and investment have both taken a lasting hit from the 2020 crisis, and the export sector will not benefit fully from the expected rebound in US growth. The crisis also exacerbated concerns about the vulnerability of public finances and the decline in investment, which will undermine medium to long-term growth prospects.
The country weathered the difficulties of 2020 relatively well, notwithstanding the recession that Covid-19 produced and the drying up of private capital inflows. Thanks to the improvement in the terms of trade, the current account surplus was sufficient to balance the existing gap. Over recent years, Ukraine has been able to improve its fiscal management, which helped to secure the support of international financial institutions. The challenge for the months ahead lies in a resumption of capital inflows and in the planned reforms to encourage investment and increase potential growth. It will be important to keep an eye on reforms in the banking sector, which relate both to the consolidation of the sector and to the improvement of the prudential and supervisory framework.
The Egyptian economy proved to be resilient last year. Economic growth remained positive thanks to fiscal support, and the main macroeconomic metrics did not deteriorate significantly thanks notably to international support. The good fiscal performance was noteworthy, and will help maintain the attractiveness of Egyptian debt. This said, it would be wise to remain cautious. On the one hand, the rate of vaccination is slow and the pandemic is still active; on the other hand, the external accounts remain vulnerable, and the improvement in the external energy balance seen in 2020 may not continue in the short term.
So far, the economy has posted a fairly good resilience to the pandemic shock. Although economic growth slowed sharply in 2020, it nonetheless remained in positive territory. Above all, the economy is expected to rebound strongly this year, buoyed by domestic demand and easing political tensions after a busy electoral calendar. The country’s debt situation is also not as alarming compared to the other African countries. Even so, the sharp deterioration in public finances in 2020 calls for fiscal consolidation, which could prove to be difficult without a sustainable increase in fiscal revenue. This could weigh on the growth prospects of an economy that is increasingly dependent on public investment.
Although Kenya was spared a recession in 2020, the Covid-19 shock exacerbated the country’s economic vulnerabilities. The risk of excessive public debt is especially high, and despite financial support provided by multilateral and bilateral creditors, budget management will remain a big challenge in the short and medium terms. The level and structure of the debt expose the government to solvency risk. Fortunately, reforms are expected to reduce this risk, and the IMF financing programme recently granted to the Kenyan authorities should support these efforts and help reassure non-resident investors.
Nigeria’s economy contracted by 1.8% in 2020 due to the pandemic and the downturn in oil prices. The prospects of a rebound are slim, with growth expected at 2.5% in 2021 according to the IMF. The lack of visibility over the evolution of exchange rate regime is one of the main factors curbing growth. The Finance Minister recently declared that the government was going to use the Nafex rate, the market’s benchmark exchange rate, implying a 7.5% devaluation of the official exchange rate. The Governor of the Central Bank denied this announcement, but pressure is growing. Unifying various exchange rates is one of the conditions for unlocking financial aid, which would ease the external liquidity pressures generated by the drop-off in oil exports
In many countries the number of new Covid-19 cases has begun rising again, forcing governments to maintain or tighten health restrictions. This is the case for the Eurozone, among others, where a true rebound in growth and demand has been postponed yet again. The timing of the recovery will depend essentially on the effectiveness of restrictive measures and the acceleration of vaccination campaigns, but also on spillovers effects with some of its trading partners whose economies are picking up more rapidly. The United States is one such country thanks to its successful vaccination campaign and the enormous recovery plan that has just been launched. America’s influence is not limited to providing greater opportunities for European exporters
The US economy has taken off. Bolstered by the easing of the Covid-19 pandemic as much as by unprecedented fiscal support, GDP will soar by at least 6% in 2021, surpassing the pre-crisis level of 2019. Inflation will accelerate and temporarily overshoot the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Nonetheless, the central bank will not deviate from its accommodating stance. The Fed’s top priority is employment, which continues to bear the scars of the crisis and has a long way to go before making up for all of the lost ground. As a result, monetary conditions will remain accommodating, both for the economy and the markets, even at the risk of encouraging some excessive behaviour.
The pandemic continues to spread rapidly within the Eurozone member states, and many uncertainties remain. Yet the most recent economic data are encouraging. Far from claiming victory, these signals nonetheless raise expectations of an accelerated economic recovery as of H2 2021. The greatest hope lies in the successful rollout of vaccination campaigns among national populations. The authorities will remain at the bedside of an ailing Eurozone economy, ready to help through public policies while trying to avoid any tightening moves that might hamper the recovery process. In terms of monetary policy, for example, Christine Lagarde announced that the ECB would step up the pace of securities purchases, which means that financing conditions are being closely monitored.
