GDP figures for Q4 2024 confirm a clear divergence between growth which is sustained in the US (0.6% q/q) or accelerating in China (1.6% q/q), and mixed performances in Europe with a stagnating GDP: -0.2% in Germany, -0.1% in France or stagnation in Italy, compared to +0.8% in Spain. In Japan and the UK, these figures have not yet been published, but our estimates are 0.2% and 0.3% q/q, respectively.
Economic surveys - for households and companies - started the year on a slightly more positive note. Consumer confidence (+0.3 points) benefited from a slight fall in indicators for unemployment and inflation prospects. The composite PMI index returned to expansion territory (+0.6 points to 50.2), with the contraction in the manufacturing industry easing slightly (+1.5 points to 46.6), while the services index fell dipped (-0.2 points to 51.4).
The German business climate is being driven down by the prolonged recession in industry. Industrial production (in the broad sense, including construction) has contracted in 10 of the last 12 quarters (including a further negative quarter likely in Q4 2024), for a cumulative drop of 8.4% (-14.7% compared to the peak seen at the end of 2017). This momentum explains the low IFO index.
The French economy remains weak, although it is showing signs of stabilisation. The Insee business climate indicator remained stable at 95 in January, while the composite PMI rebounded slightly (47.6 in January compared to 47.5 in December).
As expected, Italian growth failed to outperform that of the Eurozone in 2024 (average annual growth of 0.5% versus 0.7% respectively). In addition, it remained at a standstill in Q4 (0.0% q/q) for the second consecutive quarter.
After growing four times faster than the Eurozone in 2024 (3.2% as an annual average versus 0.8% respectively), the Spanish economy is set to maintain its dynamism throughout 2025. On the back of growth of 0.8% q/q in the last three quarters of the year, real GDP is set to continue its momentum, with expected growth of 0.7% q/q in Q1 2025, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of growth above or equal to 0.7%.
The US economy ended 2024 with its real GDP growing +0.6% q/q in Q4, a solid figure, though slightly down on the previous quarter (-0.2 pp). Household consumption (+1.0% q/q, +0.1 pp) was once again the main growth driver. The government also contributed positively, in contrast to private fixed investment (-0.1% q/q), despite the growth in residential investment and intellectual property products.
Les dynamiques de consommation et de production industrielle restent défavorables. Les ventes au détail (hors carburant) ont reculé de 0,5 % m/m en décembre et de 1,1 % au T4 par rapport au T3. La production industrielle qui a enregistré, entre septembre et novembre, trois mois de baisse successifs demeure sur une dynamique très difficile au démarrage de l’année 2025. Certes, le PMI manufacturier s’améliore (+1,3 point à 48,3) tout comme l’enquête mensuelle du CBI, mais l’enquête trimestrielle du patronat britannique chute à nouveau lourdement au T1
According to the Jibun Bank PMI survey, the Japanese economy has started 2025 in different directions. The manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 in January (-0.9 pp, the lowest since March 2024), against a backdrop of a wider deterioration in production and new orders. By contrast, the services PMI accelerated according to the flash estimate, with Business Activity rising from 50.9 to 52.7.
Chinese economic growth accelerated in Q4 2024 (+1.6% q/q and +5.4% y/y), driven by strong export performance and a recovery in private consumption. These supporting factors should persist in early 2025, but economic growth will then resume its downward trend. Domestic demand is likely to remain fragile and the rise in US tariffs will be a significant negative shock to exports.
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The deficit on the trade in goods published by the French Customs authorities on 7 February is likely to have been EUR83 billion for 2024, from EUR100 billion in 2023 (but EUR58 billion in 2019). The improvement in the nominal deficit hides the fall in goods exports. However, the improvement in the balance in volume terms and the strength of services exports are positive factors.
The impulse of bank lending to the private sector continued to recover in the Eurozone in Q4 2024 (1.5 after between 1.1 and 1.2 since September 2024). It was back in positive territory since August (0.8), and in December 2024 it reached its highest level since November 2022 (2.7). The ECB bank lending survey in the Eurozone confirms the recovery in the demand for loans in Q4 2024. However, political uncertainties have resulted in a tightening of credit standards for lending to companies in France and Germany.
Central European countries are relatively well-positioned in industrial sectors with high technological content. However, there are differences, with regards to the respective percentages of tech products in value added and in manufacturing sector exports. The share of the high-tech sector, consisting of only three segments in the sector approach (pharmaceuticals, IT/electronics/optical and air/spacecraft), is relatively modest, but the percentage of “medium-high-technology” sector (chemicals, weapons, electrical equipment, machinery, motor vehicles, other vehicles, medical devices) is high. However, these two sectors are also very technology-intensive
The first FOMC meeting of 2025 (28-29 January) should result in the target rate being held at +4.25% - +4.5%. In our view, this would mark the beginning of a pause lasting until mid-2026, due to the anticipated pick-up in inflation that would result from Donald Trump's economic policy.
According to our forecast, French growth reached 0.1% q/q in Q4 2024, boosted by some favourable sector-based factors (aviation and electricity production). However, overall economic momentum continues to slow, including corporate investment perspectives, impacting the labour market.
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On 20 January 2025, Donald Trump once again became President of the United States. With a ‘clear mandate’, the Republican intends to harness his victory by addressing his favourite issues. His return to the Oval Office comes at a time when the dollar is witnessing one of the biggest rallies in history. The real effective exchange rate of the greenback is now at a comparable level to the one which led to the Plaza Accord of 1985, and its appreciation has a high likelihood of continuing. This trend is likely to frustrate the new President, who is keen to denounce weak currencies as penalising US industry
