Although it remains dynamic, economic growth slowed in the first quarter of the current fiscal year. Monetary policy tightening, a very mixed monsoon season and disruption to global value chains are expected to weigh on activity during the next two quarters. The central bank has revised its economic growth forecasts downwards for the current fiscal year as a whole. At the same time, pressures on external accounts and the rupee are set to remain strong. Despite this rather unfavourable environment, enterprises and banks are holding up well.
During the first six months of 2022, the economy proved to be quite resilient to the consequences of the conflict in Ukraine and China’s zero-Covid policy. In particular, it benefited from the higher prices of exported commodities (mainly coal and palm oil). Its public finances and external accounts consolidated despite rising subsidies and net capital outflows. However, the situation could deteriorate in the fourth quarter and the medium-term outlook is less favourable. Although the fiscal deficit and government debt remain modest, refinancing risks will increase in 2023 in conjunction with the end of purchases by the central bank of government’s bonds, which have been in place since 2020. Moreover, pressures on the rupiah will intensify with the fall in commodity prices.
The recovery is continuing in Thailand. The rebound in private consumption and the gradual return of tourists should help, at least in the short term, to compensate for the slowdown in exports. However, the risks to growth remain on the downside, due to rising inflation, monetary tightening, the weakness in global demand and the absence of Chinese tourists. In the run-up to the elections in May 2023 political tensions could increase again. However, medium-term strategic investments, including the Eastern Economic Corridor programme, should not be jeopardised.
The economic slowdown is likely to continue in the coming quarters. Poland is facing several challenges. Firstly, the country is highly dependent on coal imports, and the price of this commodity has soared since the end of 2021. The Central Bank has moved towards a less restrictive monetary policy despite high inflationary pressures. Finally, the moratorium on mortgage repayments in 2022 and 2023 will have a negative impact on banks’ balance sheets in the short term. However, the Polish economy does have numerous strengths and should show resilience.
All growth drivers weakened in the second quarter of 2022. With a high exposure to Russia for its oil and gas supplies, Slovakia could be amongst the most affected Central European countries by the consequences of the war in Ukraine. The steep rise in energy costs, as well as supply disruptions, will have an adverse impact on industrial activity, which has not yet returned to its pre-Covid level. Moreover, inflation has increased rapidly but is still more moderate compared to other countries in the region. Finally, public and external accounts will deteriorate in the short term, but this situation remains manageable.
Accelerating growth, slowing inflation, falling unemployment and the interruption of monetary tightening differentiate Brazil from most of the world’s major economies. These developments, which are largely attributable to fiscal stimuli (higher social transfers, reduction in taxes and fuel prices), are complicating the task of monetary authorities by partially diluting the restrictive effects of their policy. In the second half of the year, the maintenance of fiscal stimulus should again help limit the slowdown in activity. Brazil’s solid economic performance has allowed financial assets to hold up well despite the general elections and a deteriorating global environment.
The economic dynamism seen in the first half of 2022 is waning. The rebound in private consumption is being held back by rising inflationary pressures, while exports are weakening due to slowing growth in the United States and global demand. Structural weaknesses in the economy (low investment, lack of infrastructure) are also limiting the growth recovery. Moreover, a deterioration in public finances is increasingly likely in the medium term. The very limited rise in fiscal income will not be enough to compensate for the necessary increase in government spending that is expected in the coming years. In addition, sovereign wealth funds have been used over the past two years and the government no longer has any reserves.
Egyptian external accounts have been under pressure since the beginning of the year and the outlook is uncertain. Although the current account was able to withstand external shocks thanks to the rise in gas revenues, only the massive support of the Gulf countries enabled Egypt to cope with portfolio investment outflows and to avoid a foreign exchange crisis. The dynamic remains negative in the short term, given the drop in net foreign currency assets in the banking system and persistent exchange rate pressures, despite depreciation of more than 20% since the beginning of the year
The Qatari economy, which is poorly diversified and based on long-term gas export contracts, has not experienced the same volatility as elsewhere in the Gulf during the last five years. In the short term, high oil prices and the forthcoming World Cup will support growth and enable a return to substantial external and budgetary surpluses. Likewise, the reduction in banks’ external liabilities should continue. Inflation will remain relatively moderate thanks to government intervention and the impact of the stronger dollar on import prices. In the medium term, the macroeconomic outlook is very positive as a result of the significant increase in gas revenues. However, it is less certain in the longer term, in the context of the energy transition
Two years after the shock of the pandemic, Tunisia is now being hit hard by the consequences of the conflict in Ukraine. The rise in commodity prices is leading to a dangerous deterioration in external accounts and public finances. Inflation is at historically high levels, weighing further on economic activity, which has already been struggling to recover since the 2020 crisis. In the absence of any financial room for manoeuvre, Tunisia is hoping to obtain support from the IMF to ease macroeconomic tensions. There are pressing needs.
In 2020-2021, thanks to its diversified economy, Kenya was relatively more resilient to the shock of the pandemic than other sub-Saharan African economies. But in 2022-2023, the recovery will be constrained by the indirect effects of the war in Ukraine and subject to significant downside risks. The country faces a deterioration in its terms of trade. Accelerating inflation will weigh on domestic demand, with the risk of fuelling social instability. This could complicate fiscal consolidation efforts, which are necessary to maintain the support of multilateral creditors, particularly the IMF. The new president has ruled out the option of preventive debt restructuring. But the government’s external liquidity and solvency remain fragile.
Persistent inflation and the rapid and sustained rises in interest rates are hitting the US economy hard. However, business climate surveys are recovering, albeit modestly, and consumer confidence has improved for the second consecutive month. Business climate indices rebounded in September, although without moving back into growth territory. The composite PMI recovered significantly (+4.7 points compared to August) to stand at 49.3, mainly driven by the strong growth in the services sector PMI (+5.5 points, to 49.2) and, to a lesser extent, by a slight improvement in the manufacturing PMI (+0.2 points, to 51.8).
Dark clouds are continuing to gather over the Eurozone economy. The first set of data available for September is not positive and this can be seen in our Pulse. Looking at the survey data, the blue area (recent conditions) is shrinking when compared to the dotted line (conditions four months earlier) and even, on some indicators, when compared to the grey dodecagon (the long-term average). The opposite is true for the inflation data. In fact, inflation reached a new level, at 10% y/y in September according to Eurostat’s preliminary estimate. Not only did inflation reach double figures – which was predictable, but still bad news – but its 0.9–points rise compared to July was broad-based across all its main components.
Inflation has been the dominant economic theme for months, but, under the influence of aggressive monetary tightening, one can expect this won’t last. At the same time, recession concerns are mounting. Central bankers acknowledge that their action may cause a technical recession, a huge majority of US CEO’s expect a recession and consensus forecasts show an increased recession risk in the US and even more so in the euro area. The recession narrative should lead to a wait-and-see attitude, of putting spending and hiring decisions on hold and creates a mutually reinforcing negative interaction between hard data and sentiment. A key condition for this to end is growing belief that central banks will have done their job and can afford to stop tightening
Following a second contraction in its GDP in Q2, the outlook for the US economy is at least uncertain. Inflationary pressures are showing signs of easing, but the pace of disinflation could be longer than expected. While consumer confidence recently paused its downward trend and in fact recovered slightly in August, business surveys show a sharp decline in sentiment, particularly in the manufacturing sector. The Federal Reserve has continued the rapid rise in its fed funds rates, which are now at restrictive levels.
The recovery in activity since the end of the lockdowns imposed in Shanghai in the spring has been very gradual. It picked up in August, notably supported by public investment and tax measures, but it is likely to lose steam again in September. As exports begin to suffer from weaker global demand, the continuation of the zero-Covid strategy and the serious crisis in the property sector continue to weigh heavily on confidence, private consumption and investment. An easing of the health policy and more wide-ranging actions to support the property market seem to be the only measures capable of lifting the Chinese economy out of its current gloom.
The Yen continued to plunge this summer, reaching its lowest level against the dollar in 24 years. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is keeping its yield curve control policy unchanged, exacerbating the gap with other major central banks and, consequently, downward pressures on the currency. This depreciation has also led to an unprecedented widening of the trade deficit. Although the pace of inflation is significant for the country (3.0% y/y in August), it remains under control and at a lower level than in 2014 and the start of the Abenomics programme. Even if it’s tightening, there is still room for manoeuvre for the BoJ. However, with a GDP level almost 2.5% below its 2019 summer level, Japan remains the G7 country where the upturn in activity has been the least pronounced since two years.
The current unprecedented combination of shocks (inflation, health crisis, geopolitical issues, energy crisis, climate, monetary issues) is likely to overburden the Eurozone resilience and push the region into recession over the coming quarters. The deterioration in confidence surveys this summer provides an early indication of this likely outcome. However, we expect the recession to be limited in scope, in large part due to budgetary support. This recession should be followed by a moderate recovery as the various shocks start to ease. Faced with the continued surge in inflation, the ECB has moved up a gear
The question is no longer whether or not Germany will slide into recession, but rather when and to what extent. The surprising resilience of German GDP in the 2nd quarter should not disguise the significantly worse outlook for the rest of the year. With continuing supply constraints, the new risk of energy shortages, rising production costs and high and widespread inflation that severely reduces household purchasing power, Germany is unlikely to avoid a fall in its GDP. However, the extent of the downturn should be limited.
French growth was surprisingly up in the second quarter (+0.5% q/q), supported by the positive impact of the lifting of Covid-19-related restrictions on tourism and leisure. The rest of the economy was almost flat according to our estimates (+0.1% q/q) due to accelerating inflation. After a negative first quarter (-0.2% q/q, including "after adjustment"), this indicates a narrowly avoided recession. Looking ahead, however, the deterioration in business surveys, the impact of energy prices on businesses, the drought and the decline in electricity production increase the recessionary risk.
During the first half of 2022, the Italian economy has gradually gained strength. In Q2 2022, the real GDP was 1.1% higher than in Q4 of 2019. The carry-over for 2022 is 3.5%. The recovery that resulted was widespread in a variety of sectors. Construction continued to grow, recording a robust increase in comparison with the pre-COVID level, while both manufacturing and services increased as well, benefiting from the recovery of tourism. The overall outlook for the Italian economy has become more uncertain. Households and firms are extremely cautious. In the three months ending in July, industrial production fell by more than 1.5% q/q. The value of retail trade continued to rise, while the volume of sales declined, suffering from the acceleration of inflation.
Spain is unlikely to avoid a difficult winter. Although its economy is structurally less vulnerable to energy shortages, the inflationary shock is severe and is not slowing down, with an inflation rate of over 10% in August. The rise in non-energy prices is amplifying relentlessly. Despite government action, the decline in purchasing power for Spanish households will be among the biggest in the Eurozone. Although tourism is likely to have helped business to cope with the third quarter, we are expecting a contraction in the fourth quarter of 2022, which is likely to continue through the winter. Job creation was strong again this summer, but opinion surveys are also pointing to a downturn on the way.
Belgian GDP grew by 0.2% in the second quarter of this year. Private consumption continued its upward trajectory in the first half of 2022 but is expected to slow down as inflation remains at an all-time high. Higher labour and energy costs are weighing on firms, with investment expenditures once again below pre-pandemic levels. A recession as from the end of this year looks unavoidable. Active fiscal policy should ensure it remains a shallow one but the cost to public finances will be sizeable.
With a relatively limited risk of energy shortages, Portugal should record some of the largest economic growth in the eurozone this year. A number of favourable factors are driving these growth levels. There has been substantial carry-over growth from 2021 and real GDP rose sharply in Q1 (+2.4% q/q), before stabilising in Q2. The recovery in tourism has also boosted business activity this summer. Despite the aid measures for households and businesses, which the government estimates are worth EUR 4 billion so far in 2022, there should be a slight surplus on the primary budgetary balance for this year
Finland, like other Nordic countries, has so far shown itself to be particularly resilient to the current financial shocks, but the clouds are gathering over the “Land of the Midnight Sun”. After five consecutive quarters of growth, buoyed by robust domestic demand, activity is expected to slow significantly in the second half of 2022 due to the persistent geopolitical tensions, tightening of financial conditions and price rises that are impacting on corporate margins and on the purchasing power of households. In an increasingly less favourable economic environment Finland can, nonetheless, be pleased with its structural efforts and in particular with the success of its housing policy
