The first indications for Q4 2021 suggest that the main confidence indicators are holding at high levels, especially business sentiment. The improvement in the French labour market observed over the past several months also seems to be continuing. With Q3 GDP growth recently confirmed at 3% q/q, France should have no trouble reaching our full-year 2021 forecast of 6.7%. Even so, our Pulse seems to suggest that growth is slowing, held back by several headwinds. The first is the lag between order books and the turnaround time necessary for companies to meet demand. Order books have been full for several months, but supply disruptions are accumulating.
So far, Egypt’s economy has weathered the Covid-19 crisis without any significant worsening of its main macroeconomic indicators. GDP growth has remained positive, and the country's budget and external balances are relatively stable. The macroeconomic stabilisation achieved in previous years and external financial support are the main reasons behind these positive performances. In the short term, the outlook is mixed. The rebound in inflation, if it were to persist, could trigger a cycle of monetary tightening, with negative consequences for public finances. In addition, Egypt's external vulnerability remains significant given structural current account deficits and dependence on portfolio investment flows
The ECB insists on the need for patience before considering a policy tightening, despite current elevated levels of inflation. It believes that inflation will decline next year and that a wage-price spiral is unlikely to develop. Moreover, inflation expectations remain well anchored. Demand in the euro area is suffering from the headwind created by the jump in energy prices. Reacting to this type of inflation by tightening monetary policy would create the risk of reducing demand even more. To avoid such an outcome, it makes sense for the central bank to wait for more information to arrive, thereby adopting a risk management approach of monetary policy
Although there was no lack of effort from the British government in dealing with the coronavirus pandemic (20 points of GDP was directly transferred to the economy to tackle the health crisis, twice the European average), it was also one of the first to have decreed the end of “whatever it takes”. In October, the main employment support measures – the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme and the Self-Employed Income Support Scheme – came to an end.
Companies in the euro area report record-high levels of labour shortages. These are partly cyclical in nature but structural factors also play a role. Last year’s annual investment survey of the European Investment Bank shows that the availability of staff with the right skills is the second most important factor weighing on long-term investment decisions in the EU. Structural labour shortages can weigh on potential GDP growth through its impact on capital formation, innovation and productivity. Economic and, in particular, education policy including vocational training and lifelong learning schemes will have to make sure that, going forward, the available skills, both in quantity and quality, fit the evolving needs.
Our monthly Pulse highlights the cyclical deterioration of the Chinese economy in August-October 2021 compared to the previous 3-month period. While the situation in the industrial sector improved in October after a sharp slowdown in September, the correction in the real estate sector has continued. Industrial production growth picked up slightly in October (+3.5% y/y in real terms, compared to 3.1% in September and 5.3% in August). In fact, the measures introduced by the authorities rapidly eased energy constraints last month.
According to our Pulse, the Eurozone’s cyclical situation has deteriorated over the past three months (the blue area is smaller than the area within the dotted lines). Hard data have dropped sharply but the decline in business climate surveys has been much milder. This difference is due to statistical distortions. For retail sales and production, the sharp decline in growth rates in year-on-year terms since May reflects a normalisation after the previous 3-month average was inflated by very favourable base effects in March and April.
After two solid quarters, Italian GDP growth is expected to slow in Q4 2021. Real GDP rose 2.7% q/q in Q2 2021 and 2.6% q/q in Q3. Yet there was an encouraging catching-up movement through the fall, which led the European Commission to revise strongly upwards its 2021 growth forecast, to 6.2%, from its previous outlook of 4.2% last spring. While a new epidemic wave could weigh on activity in the coming weeks, Italy is currently facing a level of contamination much lower than most other European countries.
Like other economies, Spain is currently facing several headwinds, including labour shortages, supply-chain problems and inflation. The country is now also facing the risk of another upsurge in the pandemic. In mid-November, the number of Covid-19 cases was still holding at a very moderate level, but it now seems to be ticking upward, a movement that is bound to accelerate with the approach of winter. Even so, Spain benefits from a high vaccine coverage ratio (more than 80% of the population is fully covered by the vaccine), meaning that the country can look forward to a less perilous winter than last year.
In the euro area, business surveys report record-high staff shortages. They represent a headwind to growth and raise the possibility of faster wage growth and a pick-up in inflation. Thus far, growth of negotiated wages has been subdued but, given its historical relationship with labour market bottlenecks, an acceleration seems likely. Despite the difficulties of companies in filling vacancies, labour market slack has remained above pre-pandemic levels. This situation should improve in the coming months but whether this eases labour market tensions depends on companies’ hiring intentions. Based on recent surveys, these should remain elevated.
The “transitory” surge in inflation is proving to be long lasting. In October, US inflation rose to 6.2% year-on-year, the highest level in 31 years. As in previous months, the main explanation is a ballooning energy bill (which accounts for 30% of this figure), but the acceleration in prices is spreading throughout the US economy. It can be seen in the cost of shelter, which is already up 3.5% year-on-year, and is surely bound to accelerate.
Manufacturing in Poland, as in the other central European countries, has been hit by increasingly severe shortages of inputs. Numerous components are in short supply, from semi-conductors to plastic parts. As a result, automobile production is down 15% from the high of year-end 2020, while electrical equipment is down 8% compared to the May 2021 peak. In both cases, production declined even though order books are relatively strong. Moreover, they have had a direct impact on the current account balance, which suddenly dropped from an average monthly surplus of EUR 500 m in H1 2021 to a deficit of about EUR 1.5 bn a month starting in July
The global manufacturing PMI was up slightly in October despite a weakening in the US and a small decline in the eurozone. There was a noticeable decline in France whereas Italy moved higher. Japan also saw an improvement. The levels in the advanced economies remain very high whereas in the emerging countries the picture is more mixed. Worth noting is the improvement in India and the jump in Indonesia and Vietnam.
The German economy further recovered in the third quarter, as GDP strengthened by 1.8% from the preceding quarter. Growth is mainly driven by higher consumer spending related to improved labour market conditions and a further relaxation of sanitary measures. However, our Pulse chart indicates that this favourable environment is unlikely to last: the situation in the three months to October (blue area) worsened compared to the situation in the preceding three-month period (area within the broken line).
The initial estimate of French growth in Q3 2021 surprised on the upside, with a rebound in GDP of 3% q/q, well ahead of our forecast (2.2%) as well as those of Banque de France (2.3%) and INSEE (2.7%). Furthermore, Q2 growth has been revised upwards by 0.2 points to 1.3%. One quarter ahead of schedule, France’s GDP is therefore almost back to its pre-crisis level of Q4 2019. Besides, the growth carry-over reaches 6.6%. Hence, on average over 2021, growth will be much stronger than expected (government forecast of 6.25% and our forecast of 6.3%).
The European Commission has relaunched a comprehensive review of the economic governance framework of the European Union. This initiative is necessary considering the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on public finances as well as the investment needs in the context of the green and digital transformation. The review process comes with several challenges: an agenda which is particularly broad, the inclusive nature of the debate, involving many stakeholders and, as far as fiscal governance is concerned, the necessity for EU member states to strike a balance between committing to policy discipline whilst keeping national fiscal policy leeway
Chinese real GDP growth slowed to 4.9% year-on-year (y/y) in Q3 2021 from 7.9% in Q2 2021. In the services sector, growth slowed sharply in August (+4.8% y/y), due notably to the reintroduction of lockdown measures to counter a new surge in Covid-19 cases. Although services growth rebounded in September (+5.2%), it is still sluggish. Tighter regulations in a number of segments, including online services, tutoring and video gaming, have constrained activity. The services sector has also been hit by the downturn in the real estate market due to a severe tightening of prudential regulations and credit conditions in the sector. In Q3 2021, house sales contracted while property developers have encountered increasing financing and cash-flow problems
Did the UK government lower its guard too quickly? Since early July, it has lifted nearly all of the sanitary barriers to counter the Covid-19 pandemic. London no longer requires masks to be worn in public spaces, even indoors, nor the presentation of a “health pass”. These measures are left to the discretion of each individual. As a result, the “freest country in Europe”, according to UK minister David Frost, is also the one that reported the highest number of new cases in fall 2021: nearly 45,000 new cases a day. This is ten times more than in France, while the two countries have comparable populations and vaccination rates (67% altogether).
Although the significant increase in inflation in most advanced economies is expected to be transitory, it is necessary to focus on the potential consequences of inflation staying temporarily high for longer. Companies that hitherto have been reluctant to raise prices might do so after all, higher inflation could weigh on spending but also cause wage demands to grow, inflation expectations could drift higher, the market sensitivity to growth and inflation surprises would increase and there could be fears about a change in the reaction function of the central bank. In the coming months, investors and central banks will scrutinise data in parallel, but the former will react more quickly should inflation stay high.
Despite more than 80% of the adult Italian population having received a full vaccination schedule, the government has decided to introduce new constraints to keep the Covid-19 epidemic under control. At the economic level, the impact of this decision is likely to be felt most in the labour market, accentuating labour shortages, and particularly in the transport sector, where between 25% and 30% of workers still do not have the health pass, according to estimates from Confreta, the union for the industry.
The sections of our Pulse on industrial production and retail sales deteriorated significantly. This mainly reflects base effects linked to the catch-up in activity in the first half of 2021. In the coming months, household spending could be held back by the rise in energy prices, which shows no sign of slowing down, and possibly also by lengthening delivery times for certain products.
In the past few months, activity was hampered by the state of emergency in large parts of the country, which affected in particular the services sector. In addition, the manufacturing sector was confronted with supply disruptions, specifically in the car industry. Finally, the substantial base effects related to the pandemic make it difficult to interpret the year-on-year data.
The Chinese economy is in the midst of a period of major adjustments. They arose after Beijing tightened regulations in a variety of sectors, from housing to certain new technologies and activities linked to the societal challenges facing the country. The adjustments can also be attributed to the debt excess problem of some state-owned and private enterprises, and reflect the authorities’ determination to tighten their access to credit and to clean up practices in the financial sector. As a result, an increasing number of corporates is defaulting, and the troubles of the property developer Evergrande are symptomatic of the changes under way
India’s economic and financial situation has consolidated slightly since the summer. After contracting sharply in Q2 following the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic, economic activity rebounded strongly in Q3. Even so, at end-September, only 20% of the population was fully vaccinated, which means the country is not sheltered from a third wave of the pandemic. Growth prospects are still looking good for the rest of the year. Household consumption will benefit from falling inflation and higher government spending. Business leaders are still confident, even though they are taking a cautious approach to investment plans. Borrowing rates are low, and the banking sector, though still fragile, is doing better than it was three years ago
Although the political situation has stabilised somewhat following the appointment of a new prime minister, the economic environment has deteriorated. The spread of the Covid-19 pandemic in April forced the government to reintroduce lockdown measures that led to an economic contraction in Q2 2021. The situation is unlikely to improve before Q4, once health restrictions are lifted thanks to an accelerated vaccination campaign. In an attempt to boost growth, the government launched a series of economic support plans, even though fiscal revenue fell short of the full-year target in the first seven months of the year. Consequently, according to the Ministry of Finances, the fiscal deficit is expected to swell to between 6
