Eco Week
Economic Pulse

PMI: strong increase in output price inflation, weaker export outlook

11/07/2021
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The global manufacturing PMI was up slightly in October despite a weakening in the US and a small decline in the eurozone. There was a noticeable decline in France whereas Italy moved higher. Japan also saw an improvement. The levels in the advanced economies remain very high whereas in the emerging countries the picture is more mixed. Worth noting is the improvement in India and the jump in Indonesia and Vietnam.

MANUFACTURING PMI

The global services PMI rose strongly in October on the back of a jump in the US index and despite weaker data in the Eurozone where Germany and Italy saw a drop. The UK data on the other hand were very robust. Like with the manufacturing PMI, services were also doing better in Japan and even more so in India.

SERVICES PMI

The global composite PMI rose in October. The US were up and the Eurozone down. Within the Eurozone, Germany shows the weakest data. Numbers in the UK and India were up strongly and better as well in Japan.

COMPOSITE PMI*

The manufacturing employment PMI improved a little bit at the global level but edged lower in the US whilst being stable in the Eurozone. Data improved significantly in the Netherlands and Greece but softened in Spain. The UK saw a big improvement in the labour market outlook. As observed in other PMI data, the employment climate improved strongly, but starting from a very low level, in Indonesia and Vietnam.

MANUFACTURING PMI – EMPLOYMENT

Global export orders declined somewhat in October and are now close to the 50 level. There was a big decline in the US. In the Eurozone, Ireland, the Netherlands and Spain were down whereas Italy saw an improvement. Australia recorded a big drop. The outlook for exports doesn’t look great in many emerging countries with index levels below 50, quite often for a considerable time already. Vietnam saw a spectacular turnaround with the index shooting up from 27.4 to 51.5 in a single month.

MANUFACTURING PMI – NEW EXPORT ORDERS

Input price inflation remains the big issue for companies with all countries, except Singapore, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, being in the red zone. The global index was up strongly in October. The results were stable in the US but significantly up in the Eurozone. China also saw a sizeable increase.

In the services sector, input price inflation is high but stable at the global level. The numbers are less high than in manufacturing but nevertheless, with the exception of China, all countries are in the red zone. The Eurozone and its member states for which data are available all saw a considerable increase. That also applies to the UK and even more so, Australia.

Global manufacturing output price inflation was up strongly last month on the back of higher readings in the US and the Eurozone. Italy, the Netherlands and particularly Greece saw big increases. This also applies to Poland.

PMI - MANUFACTURING INPUT PRICES

PMI: SERVICES - INPUT PRICES

PMI - MANUFACTURING OUTPUT PRICES

THE ECONOMISTS WHO PARTICIPATED IN THIS ARTICLE

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