Podcast: Macro Waves
Climate change puts balance sheets at risk 6/28/2019

Climate change puts at risk the balance sheets of numerous actors, such as households, companies and the public sector. The first episode of this series of podcasts sets the general framework, William De Vijlder is going to remind us what a balance sheet is and how climate change can impact it. The second episode will focus on households and the third one on companies. In the fourth and last episode William De Vijlder will explain how climate change is impacting the balance sheet of the public sector.

TRANSCRIPT // Climate change puts balance sheets at risk : June 2019

.

More Podcasts

On the Same Theme

How to spend it? Vouchers versus VAT cuts 7/3/2020
The bleak outlook for the labour market implies there is a strong case for measures to boost consumer spending in order to keep the recovery on track. A host of instruments can be considered: vouchers, VAT rate cuts, income tax cuts, tax credits, negative income taxes. Amongst these, a voucher programme offers many advantages given the possibility for fine-tuning the target group, the final beneficiaries, the type of spending and the regional dimension. However, it comes with considerable administrative costs.
Business sentiment continues to improve 7/3/2020
With an increasing number of countries scaling back if not removing the lockdown measures, the purchasing managers’ indices have improved further in June. The world manufacturing PMI is now even above the level reached in February. Big increases have been noted in the US, France, Germany, Ireland, Spain, Turkey, Indonesia and Vietnam. Brazil and India have also seen a considerable improvement, which seems at odds with the health situation in these countries [...]
COVID-19: main fiscal and monetary measures 7/2/2020
This document presents the budgetary and monetary measures taken in several countries as well as the EU and the eurozone to address the economic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic. It is presented in such a way that it facilitates an international comparison.
The outlook for government bonds yields: some certainties, many uncertainties 6/17/2020
After dropping significantly when the pandemic was spreading, government bonds yields have evolved sideways in April and May, despite a rally in equities – which typically is accompanied by rising yields – and a huge increase in borrowing requirements. For the foreseeable future, two certainties will play a role – the current monetary policy stance will be maintained for a long time; budget deficits will stay high compared to pre-pandemic levels – as well as many uncertainties such as the pace of recovery. In the absence of a second wave, yields should increase somewhat, although central banks will not tolerate a significant increase.
Does forecast uncertainty matter? It depends 6/5/2020
The publication by the ECB of different economic scenarios illustrates the extent of uncertainty which at present surrounds the forecasts for key macroeconomic variables. As a consequence, companies may hold off investing, preferring to wait for better visibility. While understandable at the micro level, such a wait-and-see attitude could act as a drag on growth and reinforce the view of companies that their caution was warranted. The large increase in the dispersion of earnings forecasts points to huge uncertainty at the individual company level. However this has not stopped the US equity market from rallying.  Although several factors help to explain these different reactions to uncertainty, such dissension cannot last forever. At some point company cautiousness or investor bullishness will have to give in.
Purchasing managers’ indices have troughed but the level remains low 6/5/2020
The gradual easing of lockdown measures has for the month of May, as expected, led to an improvement in the manufacturing PMIs in all countries with the exception of the Netherlands and Japan. The extent of the rebound however varies greatly between countries [...]
Covid-19, unemployment, human capital and households’ balance sheet 5/28/2020
In the first episode, William De Vijlder takes a look at households’ balance sheets by considering how assets and liabilities are influenced by the pandemic. We will also see how the loss of human capital due to the deterioration of the labour market plays a key role in the post-pandemic economic environment.
Dilemma for businesses: reduce debt or invest? 5/28/2020
The second episode focuses on non-financial companies. As well as having a considerable impact on their short-term (cash) and long-term assets (imperative of aligning their operational model with new requirements in terms of supply chain resilience), the Covid-19 crisis has obliged businesses to increase their indebtedness. This confronts them with a dilemma whether to strengthen their balance sheet by paying back debt or to maintain a high degree of leverage an invest.
Ever bigger central balance sheets raise question about where is the limit 5/28/2020
Central banks have played a key role in supporting the economy during the pandemic-induced recession. To do so, they increased the size of their balance sheet. William De Vijlder explains the mechanisms governing this increase in their balance sheet. Is there any limit on how far it might go? He also explains the concept of direct monetary financing.
Following the surge in the debt/GDP ratio, what action will the governments prioritise? 5/28/2020
In response to the pandemic, many governments took a vast range of measures to curb the impact of the pandemic on the economy. In this final episode, William De Vijlder shows how the state remains the “balance sheet of last resort” in the event of an economic crisis. He also reviews the current situation of public finances and what this implies in terms of dynamics of the  debt/GDP ratio.

ABOUT US Three teams of economists (OECD countries research, emerging economies and country risk, banking economics) make up BNP Paribas Economic Research Department.
This website presents their analyses.
The website contains 2454 articles and 632 videos