Podcast: Macro Waves
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Uncertainty continues to decline, but for how long? 7/26/2021
Our different uncertainty gauges are complementary, in terms of scope or methodology, yet, based on the latest readings, all but one show an ongoing decline in uncertainty. It reflects the combination of the vaccination campaigns, the lifting of restrictions and good economic data.
International trade: towards peak growth in trade? 7/26/2021
Although the momentum remains strong, world trade volumes could begin to taper off this summer, judging by the results of recent opinion surveys. The global PMI index declined 2 points to 56.6 in June, pulled down by the drop in the manufacturing “new export orders” component. 
Economic recovery in the advanced countries: lessons from the past 7/23/2021
The Covid-19 crisis has deeply affected our economies. Although the rebound observed in recent months seems to have been confirmed, uncertainty persists over their capacity to fully recover. This article will look at how the G7 economies reacted during post-recession phases in the past, in terms of GDP, private consumption and investment. How quickly did GDP in these economies catch up with pre-crisis levels and trends? What were the most dynamic components of aggregated demand during recovery phases? Given the specific characteristics of the Covid-19 crisis, can it really be compared with previous shocks? These are some of the questions that we will discuss in this article while highlighting current sector disparities. 
Mobility is still favourable despite the pandemic’s rapid spread 7/19/2021
The number of new Covid-19 cases continues to rise worldwide. The surge is due to the Delta variant, which is much more contagious than the other variants. It has now spread to more than 110 countries. The number of daily cases passed the half million mark on July 13 and 14.
PMI: Loss of growth momentum 7/12/2021
The global manufacturing PMI has eased slightly in June but this is masking diverging dynamics. The index was stable in the US, there was a small improvement in the euro area, the UK, Japan and China were weaker. India dropped below 50 and the decline in Vietnam was even bigger. In a nutshell, the levels remain very high in the developed economies but there is a loss of momentum. In the emerging countries, the picture remains very diverse, both in terms of level and change versus May. 
The Delta variant spreads its web over the world 7/12/2021
The Delta variant is on its way to becoming the dominant strain of Covid-19 and has now been found in some 105 countries. Despite the health situation, visits to retail and leisure facilities remained strong, returning to their summer 2020 levels and marking a return to something close to normal in all advanced economies.
Looking beyond peak growth 7/7/2021
The first half of the year has seen a broad-based improvement in business and consumer sentiment in advanced economies but elevated levels of business surveys reduce the likelihood of further significant increases. The third quarter is expected to see the peak in quarter-over-quarter GDP growth this year. Nevertheless, over the remainder of the forecast horizon – which runs until the end of next year – quarterly growth is expected to stay above potential. This favourable outlook for the real economy brings challenges for financial markets. Surprising to the upside in terms of earnings will become more difficult. Moreover, there is the question of the inflation outlook. For the time being, both the Federal Reserve and markets are relaxed about it but we should expect that over the coming months, the market sensitivity to growth and inflation data will be higher than normal in view of what they would imply for the Fed’s policy stance. 
The number of new Covid-19 cases begins to rise again worldwide 7/5/2021
After trending downwards for 7 weeks, the figures for the Covid-19 pandemic have begun to rise again worldwide. In recent weeks, the OECD Weekly Tracker of annual GDP growth has been trending lower in most countries.
The (unwarranted) stagflation narrative of 2021 6/28/2021
Strong US and Eurozone GDP growth in the second and third quarters should be followed by a gradual slowdown. Due to the ‘acquis de croissance’ going into the fourth quarter, the perceived slowdown versus the third quarter could be much bigger than what shows up in the current forecasts. In the US, the current elevated inflation will take time to decline. In conjunction with slowing growth, this could boost the stagflation narrative. Such a depiction of the economic environment seems unwarranted however, considering that inflation should decline further in the first half of next year and that the US economy should continue to grow above potential.  
The EU vaccination campaign maintains a rapid pace 6/28/2021
The Covid-19 pandemic continued to slow worldwide for the seventh consecutive week, with the number of new cases down 5% in the week of 15-22 June compared to the previous week. This has been the lowest number of new cases since February 2021. The downward trend can be seen in all regions with the exception of Africa.

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