News and Economic Analyses

A-
A+

Search by Country

SearchByCountryView

Latin America

128 Results for Latin America

Mexico : Mexico: sluggish growth in 2020

According to the first estimates, economic activity contracted for the third quarter in a row in Q4 (-0.3% y/y). Manufacturing industry was the most affected and contracted by 2%. In 2019, real GDP contracted by 0.1%, after recording a 2% growth in 2018. Real GDP growth should pick up in 2020 (+0.6%), but remains under its potential (estimated at 2.5% by the IMF). Indeed, one year after Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador came to power, his economic policy is still hard to read and weighs on investment. The future of the energy sector also raises doubts, affecting investor sentiment, both domestic and foreign. At the same time, the risk of a loss of control of the public finances is growing: against a background of low growth, maintaining the austerity programme proposed by the government will prove more difficult in the coming years.

HTML

Brazil : Trying to build momentum

Despite a more challenging global environment and a deterioration in the country’s external accounts, Brazil’s economic recovery is gaining some traction on the back of a strengthening domestic demand. In 2020, GDP growth is forecast to improve but questions remain nonetheless regarding the economy’s ability to build up and keep up momentum. The easing of monetary and financial conditions should help support the credit market but should continue to have a weakening impact on the currency. During his first year in office, President Jair Bolsonaro’s losses in terms of approval ratings contrast with his government’s notable gains on the public finance front.

HTML

Mexico : Investment has stalled

Having more or less stagnated in 2019, economic growth is likely to bounce back a little in 2020, boosted by private consumption and net exports. Despite an infrastructure programme that is largely open to the private sector, the outlook for investment is struggling to improve. One year after Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, generally known as AMLO, came to power, his economic policy is still hard to decipher. The lack of clarity on energy sector reform is also affecting investor sentiment. At the same time, the risk of a loss of control of the public finances is growing: against a background of low growth, maintaining the austerity programme favoured by the government will prove more difficult from 2021.

HTML

Chile : Crisis times

With violent protests rocking Chile since October, the government announced a series of measures to combat inequality and proposed a new version of its pension system reform. Above all, the government signed an agreement with the main opposition parties to draw up a new constitution. Yet persistently fierce political and social tensions are bound to curtail growth. Forecasts for the next two years have been revised largely downwards. The public debt and deficit are also expected to swell over the next five years.

HTML

Mexico : Mexico: the year after

The Mexican president is committed to keep public finances in control during the term of his mandate, but the budget’s assumptions seem too optimistic to be achievable. In the medium term, the risk of fiscal slippage persists.

Colombia : Colombia: who holds the public debt and in what proportion?

When looking at Colombia’s creditors by residence and type of institution over the past 10 years, we observe three main dynamics at play: first, non-residents have increased their exposure to the sovereign in both relative terms but also in absolute terms as the general government’s debt burden has increased by 20 percentage points of GDP in the intervening time. Second, most of that increase has been driven by larger holdings from foreign non-banks (i.e. investment management industry) which in fact have captured the shortfall in sovereign financing left behind by domestic banks. Finally, non-residents have altered the currency composition of their holdings as evidenced by their comparatively much larger exposure to local currency public debt instruments over the period.

HTML

Brazil : In the spotlight

The world’s projectors have descended on Brazil following raging fires in the Amazon forest. President Jair Bolsonaro has come under pressure for his lack of engagement and commitment to protecting the environment. The pace of economic growth is still struggling to accelerate. Confidence indicators are ambivalent while investment remains weak. In the wake of a much less buoyant external environment and low inflation risk, the Central Bank has lowered its policy rate by a cumulative 100 basis points since August. The pension reform was approved in the Senate (first round) but was subject to revisions. Throughout the fall, a number of major reforms should be deployed and privatizations and concessions should accelerate.

HTML

Argentina : Up against the wall

The Macri government faces an emergency situation in the run up to October’s general elections. Confronted with the erosion of foreign reserves and its failure to roll over short-term bonds, the government was forced to 1) delay payment of Treasury bonds held by local institutional investors, 2) announce debt “re-profiling” and 3) tighten capital controls. After this summer’s primary election, the opposition is largely expected to take power. The future government will have to manage numerous priorities and will probably roll back certain economic liberalisation measures. Yet, it has very little manoeuvring room since it cannot risk breaking off relations with the IMF, which is now its main creditor.

HTML

Argentina : Argentina : a difficult situation for President Macri before elections

Argentina is going through very tough times with general elections end-October and extreme financial tensions. The government has had to impose a re-profiling of a part of its debt repayments and tighten fx controls. A brief focus on the situation.

Mexico : Slowing down

After recording a 1.2% y/y growth in Q1, real Mexican GDP contracted by 0.7% y/y in Q2. The lack of dynamism of US activity, weighing on the Mexican export sector and the significant slowdown in both public and private investments, due to deteriorating business and investment sentiments, are the two key factors explaining the slowdown. For the same reasons, the risks remain tilted to the downside for the coming quarters.

HTML

ABOUT US Three teams of economists (OECD countries research, emerging economies and country risk, banking economics) make up BNP Paribas Economic Research Department.
This website presents their analyses.

The website contains 2369 articles and 603 videos

Find us on

Publications

More Information

        Eco Conjoncture
    
        Eco Flash
    
            Eco Week
        
            Eco Perspectives
        
            Eco Emerging

Legal Information

Legal information for the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website

Welcome to the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website (hereinafter the “Site”) published by BNP Paribas S.A.
Company name: BNP Paribas
Public limited company with a capital of: EUR 2,415,491,972
Commercial register [RCS]: Paris no.: 662 042 449
Head office: 16, boulevard des Italiens, 75009 Paris (France)
EC identifier: FR76662042449
Orias no.: 07 022 735

- Legal representative and Publication Director: Jean-Laurent Bonnafé
- Contact: Michel Bernardini - michel.bernardini@bnpparibas.com
- Hosted by: GECD, Capital Market CIB
- Designed by: BNP PARIBAS - CIB

The publisher undertakes to comply with all laws on the establishment and the activity of a website. As a user of the Site, you must read the following terms and conditions carefully and accessing the Site is deemed as acceptance thereof.

1 - ACCESS TO THE WEBSITE

Access to the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website is free of charge. The costs of accessing and using the telecommunications network are borne by the user in accordance with the terms and conditions set by his/her access providers and telecommunications operators.

The user of the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website acknowledges that he/she has the skill and resources necessary to gain access to and use the Site.

The user is reminded that it is an offence punishable under criminal law to fraudulently access or remain connected to an IT system, to impair or interfere with the functioning of such a system or to fraudulently enter or alter information in an IT system.

2 - INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY

All the content (text, images, data, graphics, photographs, soundtracks, etc.) of the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website is protected by the copyright, trademark and, more broadly, the intellectual property legislation.

It is prohibited to reproduce or represent the pages, data or any other component of this Site by any means and on any medium whatsoever, whether in whole or in part, without prior express authorisation. Such action would constitute an infringement punishable under the French Intellectual Property Code.

As an exception to the foregoing, the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website includes publications (audiovisual, written) that the user may view or download. For these identified publications, the Site’s publisher (which also holds the copyright to these publications) authorises the user to reproduce, represent and distribute these publications on any medium and by any means of communications. The authorisation to reproduce, represent and distribute these publications is expressly subject to (a) use of the publication in its integral form without any changes and (b) the insertion of a reference “Source: BNP Paribas Economic Research” for each use, reproduction, representation and distribution of the publication.

It is expressly agreed that the Site’s publisher may, if the circumstances/context in which the publication is used were to damage the image of BNP Paribas or the integrity of the publication, require the immediate cessation by the relevant user of all use, reproduction, representation and distribution thereof.

The trademarks on the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website are trademarks registered in France and internationally in various different forms by BNP Paribas S.A.

Any reproduction or representation in full or in part of these trademarks using components of the Site without the prior express authorisation of BNP Paribas S.A. is thus prohibited pursuant to Article L. 713-2 of the French Intellectual Property Code.

Likewise, any use of the Site’s content for illegal purposes will lead to legal proceedings against the offender(s).

As an exception, some content (texts, images, etc.) belongs to its respective authors and BNP Paribas S.A. uses it with their consent.

3 - LIABILITY

BNP Paribas endeavours to ensure the accuracy and exhaustiveness of the information disseminated on this Site and reserves the right to correct or change the content or presentation of this website at any time and without notice.

BNP Paribas cannot guarantee the exhaustiveness or that no changes have been made by a third party (intrusion, virus, etc.).

BNP Paribas declines any direct or indirect liability concerning the accuracy, the absence of errors, the updated nature and the availability of the information contained on the Site.

BNP Paribas may not be held liable for any decision made on the basis of information contained on the Site or for the use that third parties might make of it.

BNP Paribas declines any liability in the event of any delay, error or omission as regards the content of these web pages or if the Site is taken down or unavailable.

The publisher of the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website may not be held liable in any circumstances for any indirect damage of whatever nature in this regard.

4 - TECHNICAL DAMAGE

Users are reminded that there is no guarantee messages transmitted on the internet will remain confidential and that the responsibility lies with the individual user to take all appropriate measures to protect his or her own data and/or software programs against contamination by possible viruses circulating on the internet.

The publisher of the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website may not be held liable for matters outside its control and for any damage that may be caused by the user’s technical environment, in particular computers, software programs, network equipment and any other devices used to gain access to the website or to use it and/or the information it contains.

5 - HYPERTEXT LINKS

Prior authorisation must be obtained from the publisher before creating hypertext links to the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website. In an exception to the foregoing, the user has the possibility of distributing certain identified content on the internet by using an internet address in the form of a hypertext link. In this scenario, the user is authorised to create hypertext links to the web page on the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website incorporating the said content.

It is expressly agreed that the Site’s publisher may, if the circumstances/context in which the hypertext link is used were to damage the image of BNP Paribas or the integrity of the publication, require the immediate withdrawal by the relevant user of the said hypertext link.

BNP Paribas is not liable for the content of sites with hypertext links linking to the Site.

By clicking on hypertext links linking to other sites from the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website, the user leaves the Site.

The publisher of the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com site declines any liability concerning the content and possible damage incurred when visiting websites to which the website leads via hypertext links.

The user assumes responsibility for visits to other sites and does so at his/her own risk.

6 - COOKIES

The user is informed that a cookie may install itself automatically and be stored temporarily in the computer’s memory or hard drive when visiting the Site. A cookie is used to recognise the browser of the terminal from which the user connects to the Site, notably in order to store the browser’s display preferences, find out and meet as effectively as possible the user’s expectations or to produce traffic statistics for the Site.

The user may configure the browser to store cookies on his/her terminal, to reject them, either systematically or according to their issuer, or to inform him/her when a cookie is stored on the terminal. To find out ways of setting preferences for cookies, the user should refer to the browser’s help menu.

7 - PDF FILES

To read a PDF file, the user will need to download the latest version of the Acrobat Reader software program in French xxx ?? xxx. If the user does not have a version of the software program that can read PDF files on this website, he or she must download the software program, it being specified that this download can be made only from a site other than www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com.

8 - PERSONAL DATA

Personal information/data entered by the user on the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com site when subscribing to the BNP Paribas Economic Research publications will be processed in complete confidentiality by BNP Paribas solely for the following purposes:

- transmission of the BNP Paribas Economic Research publications to which the user has subscribed,
- solely for the internal management purposes of the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com site and to comply with the statutory and regulatory obligations.

No other use will be made by BNP Paribas of the personal information/data entered.

The user has the right to access, correct and delete the personal data collected on the Site as provided for in the French Law no. 78-17 of 6 January 1978 as amended on Data Processing, Data Files and Individual Liberties. The user may exercise these rights:

> by writing to the following address:
BNP Paribas - Etudes Economiques, 6 Boulevard des Capucines, ACI: CIK01A1, 75450 Paris Cedex 09

> by sending an email to the following address:
michel.bernardini@bnpparibas.com

9 - APPLICABLE LAW

The content of the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com site is subject to the law applicable in France. All users acknowledge the competence of the courts within the jurisdiction of the Paris Court of Appeal for all matters related to the content and use of the website or disputes arising therefrom.