News and Economic Analyses

A-
A+

Search by Country

SearchByCountryView

Former Soviet Union

9 Results for Ukraine

Ukraine : Favourable conjonction

Ukrainian growth accelerated rapidly in the first nine months of 2019, driven notably by the agricultural sector and household consumption, the latter being largely stimulated by borrowing. The appreciation of the hryvnia (UAH) triggered a sharp drop in inflation, which facilitated greater monetary policy easing. In the short term, monetary policy support should offset the impact of the global economic slowdown, which has already eroded industrial activity. At the same time, the announcement of a new IMF agreement is bound to reassure foreign investors. The central bank will have to deal with a classic dilemma: it needs to ease monetary policy to curb portfolio investment inflows, but doing so risks triggering a credit boom.

HTML

Ukraine : Ukrainian presidential election: staying the economic course

Whatever the outcome of the presidential election runoff due on April 21, Ukraine is unlikely to deviate significantly from its trajectory in terms of economic policy.

Ukraine : At the mercy of the IMF

Ukraine’s economy has stabilised somewhat after the crisis in 2014-2015. The economic recovery is still on track. Thanks to tight monetary policy, inflation has been moderating and the Hryvnia has been broadly stable despite emerging market tensions. The government has met its fiscal targets and reformed the gas and banking sectors. But the economy is not yet out of the woods. Ahead of the presidential elections (March 2019), (geo)political risks are high. Structural reforms need to be completed to strengthen investors’ confidence. Given large FX debt repayments in the coming year, Ukraine needs to unlock new financing from the IMF and other official lenders as well as global markets in order to avoid liquidity shortages.

HTML

Ukraine : Economic growth picks up, but not employment

After a severe political and economic crisis, the economy returned to country has swung back into growth. Stabilisation of the exchange rate laid the groundwork for lower inflation. The central bank has begun to ease monetary policy, but for the moment it has not yet had an impact on lending, which continues to contract. The IMF programme has encountered new delays: it is conditioned on the implementation of pension reform, which will not be adopted before fall. The recovery is too tepid to create jobs, and numerous Ukrainians have left to seek work in neighbouring countries. Exports are picking up, and will now receive greater EU support. The uneasy situation in the eastern part of Ukraine (embargo, armed conflict) hampers a veritable industrial recovery.

HTML

Ukraine : Between two chairs

On 23 September 2015 Ukrainian government missed the repayment of its USD 500 mn bond, following the order of the Ministry of Finances that freezes all payments on a series of external government and government-guaranteed bonds. Debt restructuring is in the process of approval by bondholders. If approved, it will prevent the government from the second default in 15 years.

HTML

Ukraine : Two months to forge a deal

The pace of economic contraction accelerated to 17.2% year-on-year in Q1 2015. We expect real GDP to contract by 13-14% this year before starting to recover very gradually in 2016. Despite dangerously high-levels recently reached by CPI rates, the conditions for the hyperinflationary spiral are not in place for the moment. The economy’s downfall further weakened the government’s finances, enhancing the need to cut debt servicing costs. Despite several months of discussions, creditors have persistently rejected any principal write-downs. The next state debt principal repayment is due in September: Ukraine and its creditors have therefore two months to forge a deal.

HTML

Ukraine : Ukraine : The spectre of default

Pro-European parties came out on top in Ukraine's early elections (presidential and parliamentary), stabilising the political situation. However, the economy is sinking: GDP is falling and prices are soaring. External liquidity is continuing to dwindle: reserves have reached critical levels and the currency remains on the slide. Fears of a sovereign default have emerged again. The IMF has said that the Ukrainian government needs another USD 15bn to meet its financial obligations. A debt restructuring can no longer be ruled out. The only way of avoiding would involve the Ukrainian authorities showing very strong commitment and international creditors taking a generous approach.

HTML

Ukraine : Under pressure

Economic indicators slipped into negative territory in Q3. To face up to currency pressures, the authorities decided to make exporters convert 50% of their export revenues into local currency. The measure is to remain in effect for six months, while waiting for the economy to improve or the country to reach a new agreement with the IMF. Despite bad news on the economic front, the government has successfully issued 10-year Eurobonds that will enable it to refinance the next IMF tranche falling due. The bond issue was none too late, right before the country’s sovereign rating was downgraded by two of the three major rating agencies.

HTML

Ukraine : Calm… before the storm?

Economic activity is getting stuck: growth and inflation are approaching zero. “Twin deficits” problem remains: the rise in social spending endangers the fulfilment of deficit targets, while the increase in gas import prices weighs on external imbalances. UAH became more volatile recently. The exchange rate correction, followed by the change in the currency regime looks increasingly likely.

HTML

ABOUT US Three teams of economists (OECD countries research, emerging economies and country risk, banking economics) make up BNP Paribas Economic Research Department.
This website presents their analyses.

The website contains 2454 articles and 632 videos

Find us on

Publications

More Information

        Eco Conjoncture
    
        Eco Flash
    
            Eco Week
        
            Eco Perspectives
        
            Eco Emerging

Legal Information

Legal information for the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website

Welcome to the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website (hereinafter the “Site”) published by BNP Paribas S.A.
Company name: BNP Paribas
Public limited company with a capital of: EUR 2,415,491,972
Commercial register [RCS]: Paris no.: 662 042 449
Head office: 16, boulevard des Italiens, 75009 Paris (France)
EC identifier: FR76662042449
Orias no.: 07 022 735

- Legal representative and Publication Director: Jean-Laurent Bonnafé
- Contact: Michel Bernardini - michel.bernardini@bnpparibas.com
- Hosted by: GECD, Capital Market CIB
- Designed by: BNP PARIBAS - CIB

The publisher undertakes to comply with all laws on the establishment and the activity of a website. As a user of the Site, you must read the following terms and conditions carefully and accessing the Site is deemed as acceptance thereof.

1 - ACCESS TO THE WEBSITE

Access to the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website is free of charge. The costs of accessing and using the telecommunications network are borne by the user in accordance with the terms and conditions set by his/her access providers and telecommunications operators.

The user of the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website acknowledges that he/she has the skill and resources necessary to gain access to and use the Site.

The user is reminded that it is an offence punishable under criminal law to fraudulently access or remain connected to an IT system, to impair or interfere with the functioning of such a system or to fraudulently enter or alter information in an IT system.

2 - INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY

All the content (text, images, data, graphics, photographs, soundtracks, etc.) of the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website is protected by the copyright, trademark and, more broadly, the intellectual property legislation.

It is prohibited to reproduce or represent the pages, data or any other component of this Site by any means and on any medium whatsoever, whether in whole or in part, without prior express authorisation. Such action would constitute an infringement punishable under the French Intellectual Property Code.

As an exception to the foregoing, the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website includes publications (audiovisual, written) that the user may view or download. For these identified publications, the Site’s publisher (which also holds the copyright to these publications) authorises the user to reproduce, represent and distribute these publications on any medium and by any means of communications. The authorisation to reproduce, represent and distribute these publications is expressly subject to (a) use of the publication in its integral form without any changes and (b) the insertion of a reference “Source: BNP Paribas Economic Research” for each use, reproduction, representation and distribution of the publication.

It is expressly agreed that the Site’s publisher may, if the circumstances/context in which the publication is used were to damage the image of BNP Paribas or the integrity of the publication, require the immediate cessation by the relevant user of all use, reproduction, representation and distribution thereof.

The trademarks on the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website are trademarks registered in France and internationally in various different forms by BNP Paribas S.A.

Any reproduction or representation in full or in part of these trademarks using components of the Site without the prior express authorisation of BNP Paribas S.A. is thus prohibited pursuant to Article L. 713-2 of the French Intellectual Property Code.

Likewise, any use of the Site’s content for illegal purposes will lead to legal proceedings against the offender(s).

As an exception, some content (texts, images, etc.) belongs to its respective authors and BNP Paribas S.A. uses it with their consent.

3 - LIABILITY

BNP Paribas endeavours to ensure the accuracy and exhaustiveness of the information disseminated on this Site and reserves the right to correct or change the content or presentation of this website at any time and without notice.

BNP Paribas cannot guarantee the exhaustiveness or that no changes have been made by a third party (intrusion, virus, etc.).

BNP Paribas declines any direct or indirect liability concerning the accuracy, the absence of errors, the updated nature and the availability of the information contained on the Site.

BNP Paribas may not be held liable for any decision made on the basis of information contained on the Site or for the use that third parties might make of it.

BNP Paribas declines any liability in the event of any delay, error or omission as regards the content of these web pages or if the Site is taken down or unavailable.

The publisher of the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website may not be held liable in any circumstances for any indirect damage of whatever nature in this regard.

4 - TECHNICAL DAMAGE

Users are reminded that there is no guarantee messages transmitted on the internet will remain confidential and that the responsibility lies with the individual user to take all appropriate measures to protect his or her own data and/or software programs against contamination by possible viruses circulating on the internet.

The publisher of the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website may not be held liable for matters outside its control and for any damage that may be caused by the user’s technical environment, in particular computers, software programs, network equipment and any other devices used to gain access to the website or to use it and/or the information it contains.

5 - HYPERTEXT LINKS

Prior authorisation must be obtained from the publisher before creating hypertext links to the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website. In an exception to the foregoing, the user has the possibility of distributing certain identified content on the internet by using an internet address in the form of a hypertext link. In this scenario, the user is authorised to create hypertext links to the web page on the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website incorporating the said content.

It is expressly agreed that the Site’s publisher may, if the circumstances/context in which the hypertext link is used were to damage the image of BNP Paribas or the integrity of the publication, require the immediate withdrawal by the relevant user of the said hypertext link.

BNP Paribas is not liable for the content of sites with hypertext links linking to the Site.

By clicking on hypertext links linking to other sites from the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website, the user leaves the Site.

The publisher of the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com site declines any liability concerning the content and possible damage incurred when visiting websites to which the website leads via hypertext links.

The user assumes responsibility for visits to other sites and does so at his/her own risk.

6 - COOKIES

The user is informed that a cookie may install itself automatically and be stored temporarily in the computer’s memory or hard drive when visiting the Site. A cookie is used to recognise the browser of the terminal from which the user connects to the Site, notably in order to store the browser’s display preferences, find out and meet as effectively as possible the user’s expectations or to produce traffic statistics for the Site.

The user may configure the browser to store cookies on his/her terminal, to reject them, either systematically or according to their issuer, or to inform him/her when a cookie is stored on the terminal. To find out ways of setting preferences for cookies, the user should refer to the browser’s help menu.

7 - PDF FILES

To read a PDF file, the user will need to download the latest version of the Acrobat Reader software program in French xxx ?? xxx. If the user does not have a version of the software program that can read PDF files on this website, he or she must download the software program, it being specified that this download can be made only from a site other than www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com.

8 - PERSONAL DATA

Personal information/data entered by the user on the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com site when subscribing to the BNP Paribas Economic Research publications will be processed in complete confidentiality by BNP Paribas solely for the following purposes:

- transmission of the BNP Paribas Economic Research publications to which the user has subscribed,
- solely for the internal management purposes of the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com site and to comply with the statutory and regulatory obligations.

No other use will be made by BNP Paribas of the personal information/data entered.

The user has the right to access, correct and delete the personal data collected on the Site as provided for in the French Law no. 78-17 of 6 January 1978 as amended on Data Processing, Data Files and Individual Liberties. The user may exercise these rights:

> by writing to the following address:
BNP Paribas - Etudes Economiques, 6 Boulevard des Capucines, ACI: CIK01A1, 75450 Paris Cedex 09

> by sending an email to the following address:
michel.bernardini@bnpparibas.com

9 - APPLICABLE LAW

The content of the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com site is subject to the law applicable in France. All users acknowledge the competence of the courts within the jurisdiction of the Paris Court of Appeal for all matters related to the content and use of the website or disputes arising therefrom.