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Ukraine : Favourable conjonction

Ukrainian growth accelerated rapidly in the first nine months of 2019, driven notably by the agricultural sector and household consumption, the latter being largely stimulated by borrowing. The appreciation of the hryvnia (UAH) triggered a sharp drop in inflation, which facilitated greater monetary policy easing. In the short term, monetary policy support should offset the impact of the global economic slowdown, which has already eroded industrial activity. At the same time, the announcement of a new IMF agreement is bound to reassure foreign investors. The central bank will have to deal with a classic dilemma: it needs to ease monetary policy to curb portfolio investment inflows, but doing so risks triggering a credit boom.

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Ukraine : Ukrainian presidential election: staying the economic course

Whatever the outcome of the presidential election runoff due on April 21, Ukraine is unlikely to deviate significantly from its trajectory in terms of economic policy.

Ukraine : At the mercy of the IMF

Ukraine’s economy has stabilised somewhat after the crisis in 2014-2015. The economic recovery is still on track. Thanks to tight monetary policy, inflation has been moderating and the Hryvnia has been broadly stable despite emerging market tensions. The government has met its fiscal targets and reformed the gas and banking sectors. But the economy is not yet out of the woods. Ahead of the presidential elections (March 2019), (geo)political risks are high. Structural reforms need to be completed to strengthen investors’ confidence. Given large FX debt repayments in the coming year, Ukraine needs to unlock new financing from the IMF and other official lenders as well as global markets in order to avoid liquidity shortages.

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Ukraine : Economic growth picks up, but not employment

After a severe political and economic crisis, the economy returned to country has swung back into growth. Stabilisation of the exchange rate laid the groundwork for lower inflation. The central bank has begun to ease monetary policy, but for the moment it has not yet had an impact on lending, which continues to contract. The IMF programme has encountered new delays: it is conditioned on the implementation of pension reform, which will not be adopted before fall. The recovery is too tepid to create jobs, and numerous Ukrainians have left to seek work in neighbouring countries. Exports are picking up, and will now receive greater EU support. The uneasy situation in the eastern part of Ukraine (embargo, armed conflict) hampers a veritable industrial recovery.

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Ukraine : Between two chairs

On 23 September 2015 Ukrainian government missed the repayment of its USD 500 mn bond, following the order of the Ministry of Finances that freezes all payments on a series of external government and government-guaranteed bonds. Debt restructuring is in the process of approval by bondholders. If approved, it will prevent the government from the second default in 15 years.

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Ukraine : Two months to forge a deal

The pace of economic contraction accelerated to 17.2% year-on-year in Q1 2015. We expect real GDP to contract by 13-14% this year before starting to recover very gradually in 2016. Despite dangerously high-levels recently reached by CPI rates, the conditions for the hyperinflationary spiral are not in place for the moment. The economy’s downfall further weakened the government’s finances, enhancing the need to cut debt servicing costs. Despite several months of discussions, creditors have persistently rejected any principal write-downs. The next state debt principal repayment is due in September: Ukraine and its creditors have therefore two months to forge a deal.

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Ukraine : Ukraine : The spectre of default

Pro-European parties came out on top in Ukraine's early elections (presidential and parliamentary), stabilising the political situation. However, the economy is sinking: GDP is falling and prices are soaring. External liquidity is continuing to dwindle: reserves have reached critical levels and the currency remains on the slide. Fears of a sovereign default have emerged again. The IMF has said that the Ukrainian government needs another USD 15bn to meet its financial obligations. A debt restructuring can no longer be ruled out. The only way of avoiding would involve the Ukrainian authorities showing very strong commitment and international creditors taking a generous approach.

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Ukraine : Under pressure

Economic indicators slipped into negative territory in Q3. To face up to currency pressures, the authorities decided to make exporters convert 50% of their export revenues into local currency. The measure is to remain in effect for six months, while waiting for the economy to improve or the country to reach a new agreement with the IMF. Despite bad news on the economic front, the government has successfully issued 10-year Eurobonds that will enable it to refinance the next IMF tranche falling due. The bond issue was none too late, right before the country’s sovereign rating was downgraded by two of the three major rating agencies.

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Ukraine : Calm… before the storm?

Economic activity is getting stuck: growth and inflation are approaching zero. “Twin deficits” problem remains: the rise in social spending endangers the fulfilment of deficit targets, while the increase in gas import prices weighs on external imbalances. UAH became more volatile recently. The exchange rate correction, followed by the change in the currency regime looks increasingly likely.

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